Oct 2 JAPAN Closes -0.7% after Trump tests positive for Covid US futures were -500pts


06 Oct

Oct 2 JAPAN Closes -0.7% after Trump tests positive for Covid US futures were -500pts

Japan closed -158pt (-0.68%) @ 23,027.

Trading
Having re-opened higher @ 23,295 but lower futures indicated; Chicago was at 23,360 and Osaka 23,330 vs Nikkei 225′s last close 23,185). Unemployment rate increased inline with the forecast as covid continues to take its toll.
The market saw an initial up tick to 23,366 but then after 10 minutes reversed and trended lower through the morning to 23,219 at lunchtime. PM saw the market trade sideways until 2pm when there was a sharp sell off of 220pts and then it continued to sell down into the close. New was that Trump has tested +VE for Covid. He tweeted the news himself and got over 450k likes in the first hour; not quite sure what that means! But the news sent US futures lower by over 500pts but they have now eased back to just -435pts. S&P and NDX also -VE. US T10 fell to 0.6627% having been at 0.7% on Thursday.

Pre Market Data
Unemployment Rate Aug 3% vs +2.9% July (F/cast was 3%)
Jobs/Application Ratio Aug 1.04 vs 1.08 July (F/cast was 1.05)
Out at 12 noon HK time
Consumer Confidence Sept 32.7 vs 29.3 Aug (F/cast was 32)

KEY
Trump with his age and weight is considered to be in the high risk of severe illness due to covid according the CDC’s website.
Biden will now have to be tested too as the news comes just two days after the first Presidential debate.

I would also expect a large number of the White House staff to have to quarantine too especially those who were on AirFroce One when Trump travelled with Hicks to Cleveland for that debate; the group included: White House chief of staff Mark Meadows; national security advisor Robert O’Brien; the president’s lawyer, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani; White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany; the president’s daughter Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner, both of whom are senior White House advisors; the president’s sons, Donald Jr. and Eric; Donald Jr’s girlfriend Kimberly Guilfoyle, who previously had Covid; Eric’s wife Lara Trump; the president’s daughter Tiffany; campaign manager Bill Stepien; top campaign official Jason Miller; White House social media director Dan Scavino; White House counselor Derek Lyons; political advisor Stephen Miller; and Rep Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

So far in terms of world leaders; UK PM Johnson has tested positive and survived along with Brazilian President Bolsonaro.

Europe now looks to open lower
FTSE 100 index is seen down more than 69 points at 5,807
France’s CAC 40 index is poised to open 48 points lower at 4,765
Germany’s DAX is on track to open 121 points lower at 12,588
All on the trump news. For Europe the data due out is EUROZONE Core Inflation Rate Flash and FRANCE Budget Balance.

US Market set to open much lower
US Futures dropped 500pts on the news having opened flat on hopes of a deal on the next stimulus package. They have now eased back to -435pts with S&P and NDX both -VE too.
Today’s data includes Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Ave Weekly Hours, Ave Hourly Earnings, Participation Rate, ISM New York Index, Factory Orders data, Michigan Data Final (Consumer Sentiment, 5 year Inflation Expectations, Consumer Sentiment, Current Conditions, Inflation Expectations) and Baker Hughes Total Oil Rig Count.

FT has a nice article about how Chinese factories are profiting by making Trump merchandise; I like the fact that they are making products with the slogan ‘MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN’.

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