Macro Data Impacting Asian Mar 7-12 China Trade Data Very strong, US Stimulus approved


07 Mar

Exceptional trade data from China should see the market open higher and sentiment is likely to be positive after the good jobs report Friday and the fact that the T10 saw an initial move higher but then fell for most of the day.  Early Saturday morning the Senate approved Biden’s stimulus bill after some last minute adjustments, likely to be voted on by the House on Tuesday. Both of which could have implications for inflation and interest rates.  We get inflation data from a number of countries this week (incl the US on Wednesday) with February data expected to remain muted but lots of conjecture about the future; so it is likely that US Treasury auctions are going to be more closely followed in the weeks ahead.  Traders noting that Japanese institutional participation this month could be reduced ahead of their year end on March 31.

Worth reading Market Thinking March 'Rotating out of long Duration Assets’
https://market-thinking.com/2021/03/market-thinking-march/
Notes that March is a key month for Asset Allocators to reposition portfolios and with the ’new narrative’ of inflation or the reflation trade with commodities in focus along with Emerging Markets. Notes that industrial mining stock have outperformed gold and its role as a stabiliser has been usurped by Bitcoin.

AHEAD
US Earnings season effectively ended with the last few reporting, which is likely to mean a greater importance on Macro Data for day traders and longer term investors. Inflation/Reflation theme predominates along rotation trades.

For Asia
Japan focus on Household spending and GDP data
S Korea Only Current Account this week.
Taiwan Trade data and Inflation
China Trade data out NPC and CPPCC in focus. Additionally on Wednesday Inflation and PPI data; we could also get Loans data.

For Europe 
Eurozone Employment, GDP, ECB Rate Decision and Industrial Production
Germany Industrial Production, Balance of Trade and Inflation (on Friday)
France Industrial Production.
UK Balance of Trade, GDP data, Goods Trade Balance, Construction, Manufacturing and Industrial Production data.

US 
Inflation on Wednesday although that is historic and likely to be muted but also; Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Inflation expectations, Business Optimism, PPI, Michigan Prelim data. Treasury auctions also likely to be watched more carefully.

Sunday  7 March 
CHINA 
Foreign Reserves Feb $3.205tn vs 3.211tn Jan (F/cast was 3.2tn)
Balance of Trade Jan-Feb $103.25b vs 78.17b Dec (F/cast was 60b)
Exports Jan-Feb +60.6% vs 18.1% Dec (F/cast was +35%)
Imports Jan-Feb +22.2% vs 6.5% Dec (F/cast was +12%)
Much stronger data reflects that many Chinese factories did not shut down for the lunar new year due to covid travel restrictions. Key will be whether this is trade brought forward and restocking or real new demand. My feeling it is more of the former.

Monday 8 March
JAPAN Current Account and Bank Lending.  Later @ 12pm Prelim Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index then at 1pm Eco Watchers Survey Current and Outlook.
S KOREA No data due
TAIWAN No data due
CHINA No data due
HONG KONG No data due
EUROZONE No data due
GERMANY Industrial Production
FRANCE No data due
UK No data due
US Wholesale Inventories, Consumer Inflation Expectations
Earnings Stitch Fix, Casey’s General Store

Tuesday 9 March
JAPAN household Spending, Average Cash Earnings, GDP Growth data (Rate, Annualised, External Demand, Capital Expenditure, Private Consumption, Price Index), Machine Tool Orders
S KOREA Current Account
TAIWAN Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Inflation Rate, Wholesale Prices
CHINA No data due
HONG KONG No data due
EUROZONE Employment Change, GDP Growth Rate
GERMANY Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Current Account.
FRANCE Non Farm Payrolls data
UK No data due
US NFIB Business Optimism, Redbook, WASDE Report, API Crude Oil Stock Change Earnings H&R Block, Navistar, Thor Industries, Dick’s Sporting Goods

Wednesday 10 March 
JAPAN No data due
S KOREA
 No data due
TAIWAN
 No data due
CHINA 
Inflation Rate, PPI
HONG KONG No data due
EUROZONE No data due
GERMANY No data due
FRANCE Industrial Production
UK No data due
US Core Inflation Rate, Inflation Rate, EIA Oil Change Report, Monthly Budget Statement
Earnings Campbell Soup, Oracle, Vera Bradley, Tupperware, United Natural Foods, Adidas, Cloudera, Bumble, Fossil, Lending Club, Express, AMC Entertainment

Thursday 11 March 
JAPAN PPI, Stock and Bond Investment by Foreigners
S KOREA No data due
TAIWAN No data due
CHINA No data due but could get New Yuan Loans, Outstanding Loans, Total Social Financing an M2 Money Supply.  NPC due to close.
HONG KONG No data due
EUROZONE ECB Interest Rate Decision, Marginal Lending Rate, Marcoeconomic Projections
GERMANY No data due
FRANCE No data due
UK No data due
US Initial Claims, 4 Week Average Claims, Continuing Claims, JOLTs Job Openings, EIA Natural Gas Change Report.
Earnings Ulta Beauty, Vail Resorts, DocuSign, Poshmark, Gogo, Zumiez, JD.com, WPP, Party City

Friday 12 March 
JAPAN BSI Large Manufacturing
S KOREA No data due
TAIWAN No data due
CHINA No data due but could get FDI (YTD) and Vehicle Sales
HONG KONG Industrial Production
EUROZONE Industrial Production
GERMANY Inflation Rate
FRANCE No data due
UK Balance of Trade, GDP Data, Construction Output, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, Goods Trade Balance, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker
US PPI, Core PPI, Michigan Data Prelim (Current Conditions, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations, Consumer Expectations, 5 year Inflation Expectations), Baker Hughes Rig Data, US Budget Plan.
Earnings Buckle

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