MACRO DATA IMPACTING ASIA Oct 19 - 23.


23 Oct

MACRO DATA IMPACTING ASIA Oct 19 - 23.

US earnings really get going this week; 418 companies are due to report.  Amongst them key names like IBM, Halliburton, Procter & Gamble, Texas Insts, Netflix, Travelers, Baker Hughes, Chipotle, AT&T, Coca-Cola, American Airlines and American Express.  
So far 49 companies of the S&P 500 have reported and 86% beat on earnings but in many cases their share price still fell. Which suggests investors are very concerned about the recovery.
 For the list see https://finance.yahoo.com/calendar/earnings/

Data wise the focus on Monday will be on the China GDP, Retail Sales and Industrial Production numbers due in the morning. Then on Tuesday the Chinese loan prime rate (I expect unchanged) and Chinese House Price Index.
Before that on Monday we get the Japanese Trade data which will also be watched closely.

Over the week a lot of US housing data which, to date has been strong and is one reason I still like Techtronics 669 HK. We also get a lot of Fed speakers; who I expect will be stressing the need for an agreement on a stimulus deal.

Later in the week UK inflation data and on Friday Japanese inflation data along with flash PMI data for Japan, Europe and the US. We will also get Taiwanese Industrial Production, M2 Money Supply and Retail Sales.

Covid and stimulus continue to overhang the market but not to the same extent as we saw a month ago.
For me it is now more about the damage the delay in stimulus will do to the US recovery.
The US election seems to be getting less important with the realisation that whoever wins nothing will change immediately. Stimulus will be a priority to both. Added to which if Biden wins and Amy Coney is approved many of Biden’s policies could be slowed down by the courts. (See the FT Weekend Will America tear itself apart?)


Monday 19 Oct
JAPAN Balance of Trade, Exports and Imports
S KOREA No Data Due
TAIWAN No Data Due
CHINA GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilisation, Retail Sales, Unemployment, NDS Press Conference, Fixed Asset Investment (YTD),
HONG KONG No Data Due
EUROZONE Construction Output, Speeches by Guindos, Lagarde, Mercsh and Lane
GERMANY No Data Due
FRANCE No Data Due
UK No Data Due but speeches by Cunliffe x2
US NAHB Housing Market Index, Speeches by Williams, Carida, Bostic and Harker

Tuesday 20 Oct
JAPAN
No Data Due
S KOREA No Data Due
TAIWAN Export Orders
CHINA Loan Prime Rate, House Price Index.
HONG KONG Unemployment
EUROZONE Current Account
GERMANY PPI
FRANCE No Data Due
UK Speech by Vlieghe
US Housing Starts, Building Permits, Redbook, API Crude Stocks Change. Speech by Quarles and Evans

Wednesday 21 Oct
JAPAN
No Data Due Speech by Sakurai
S KOREA PPI
TAIWAN No Data Due
CHINA No Data Due
HONG KONG No Data Due
EUROZONE Speech by Lagarde, Lane and Guindos x2
GERMANY No Data Due
FRANCE No Data Due
UK Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate, PPI data, Retail Price Index, Public Sector Net Borrowing. Speechby Ramsden
US MBA Mortgage Applications and 30 year Mortgage Rate, EIA Crude and Gasoline Change Report, Beige Book. Speech by Brainard and Mester

Thursday 22 Oct
JAPAN
Foreign Stock and Bond Investments
S KOREA No Data Due
TAIWAN Unemployment
CHINA No Data Due
HONG KONG Inflation Rate
EUROZONE Consumer Confidence Flash
GERMANY GfK Consumer Confidence
FRANCE Business Confidence, Business Climate Indicator,
UK CBI Industrial Trends Orders & Business Optimism Index, GfK Consumer Confidence, Speech by Haldane and Baily
US Initial Claims, Initial Claims 4 week Average, Continuing Claims, Existing Home Sales, CB Leading Index, EIA Natural Gas Report, Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index, 5 yr TIPS Auction. Speech by Barkin and Kaplan

Friday 23 Oct
JAPAN 
Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate, Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI (Flash).
S KOREA No Data Due
TAIWAN Retail Sales, Industrial Production and M2 Money Supply
CHINA No Data Due
HONG KONG Business Confidence
EUROZONE Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI (Flash).
GERMANY Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI (Flash).
FRANCE Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI (Flash).
UK Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI (Flash).
US Services, Manufacturing and Composite PMI (Flash), Baker Hughes Total Oil Rig Count.

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