Macro Data Impacting Asia May 3 - 7 US jobs data, US ISM, PMI data, BoE rate decision & Earnings

02 May

Asia a light week for data and trading with Japan closed until Thursday and China until Wednesday.  S Korea closed on Wednesday too.  We do get Manufacturing PMI data and inflation for S Korea and Taiwan. China Trade data will be watched for slowing.
Europe Retail Sales, PMI and Traded data and the BoE rate decision.
US the focus will be earnings and the Jobs report Friday with people listening to the Fed speakers for hints on progress regarding its goals for the economy; especially in regard to bond purchasing as the economy recovers faster than expected.  We also get PMI and ISM data.
Earnings also in focus, so far 87% of S&P have beaten with earnings growing by more than 46% prompting some to raise their full year forecasts but others feel the good news is priced in and markets are due some consolidation.

Worth noting some of the comments from Buffett and Munger (now 97 and doing well) at the Berkshire Hathaway AGM They were surprised but the speed of the recovery and seeing inflationary pressures in some of the companies they own.  Buffett expects more inflation “People have money in their pocket and they’ll pay the higher prices.”. Negative on bitcoin and crypto, worried about tax changes but would adapt and defended their buybacks as being good for existing shareholders. Buffet doubted the Spac craze would last. Munger worried that unchecked Federal spending would be disastrous and that Modern Portfolio Theory was not the answer; (see my note on the ERIC Shilling/Napier deflation debate).Buffet said selling some Apple was probably wrong but owning Cheveron was OK as it will adapt to renewable energy; it was a matter of being reasonable.  Doesn’t want to own airlines still not confident about the outlook.  

Interestingly started with a list of today’s 20 largest companies; asking how may would be around in 30 years; in the list were; Apple, Saudi Aramco, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Facebook.  He then said that none of the top 20 companies from 1989 was on the list; which then had over 50% Japanese banks and industrials with the only US firms being Exxon, GE, Merck, IBM, American Tel & Tel and Philip Morris.  So capitalism had worked, the world would change and he still thought the best way to invest was investment funds.  

Monday 3 May 
AUSTRALIA  Manufacturing Index, Manufacturing PMI, Inflation Gauge , Job Advertisments
JAPAN Market closed Constitution Memorial Day
S KOREA Manufacturing PMI.  Short Selling resumes.
TAIWAN Manufacturing PMI
CHINA Market closed Labour Day Holiday
HONG KONG GDP Growth Rate,  
EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI
GERMANY Retail Sales, Manufacturing PMI
FRANCE Manufacturing PMI, New Car Registrations
UK Market Closed
US Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Data (PMI, Prices, New Orders and Employment), Total Vehicle Sales

Earnings Avis Budget, Loews, Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Rambus, Leggett and Platt, Vornado, American Water, Iamgold, Mosaic, Apollo Global Management, ZoomInfo, Estee Lauder, ON Semiconductor

Tuesday 4 May 
AUSTRALIA  Balance of Trade, Home Loans, Imports, Exports, Investment Lending for Homes, RBA Interest Rate Decision.
JAPAN Market closed Greenery Day
S KOREA Inflation Rate
TAIWAN No data due
CHINA Market closed Labour Day Holiday
HONG KONG Retail Sales
EUROZONE No data due  
GERMANY No data due
FRANCE Budget Balance
UK Mortgage Approvals, Mortgage Lending, BoE Consumer Credit, Manufacturing PMI, Net Lending to Individuals.
US Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Redbook, ISM New York, Factory Orders, Factory Orders Ex. Transportation,  IBD/TIPP Economist Optimism, API Crude Oil Stock Change.

Earnings Pfizer, CVS Health, ConocoPhillips, Martin Marietta Materials, Activision Blizzard, DuPont, KKR, T-Mobile, Akamai, Pioneer Natural Resources, Lattice Semiconductor, Denny’s, Hyatt Hotels, Host Hotels, PerkinElmer, Prudential Financial, Viavi, Caesars Entertainment, Thomson Reuters, Cummins, Vulcan Materials

Wednesday 5 May 
AUSTRALIA  Construction Index, Services and Composite PMI, Building Permits, RBA Chart Pack
JAPAN Market closed Children's Day
Market closed Children’s Day
TAIWAN Foreign Exchange Reserves  
No data due  
Services and Composite PMI, PPI
Services and Composite PMI
Services and Composite PMI
New Car Registrations
US MBA Mortgage Applications and 30 yr Mortgage Rate, ADP Employment Change, Services and Composite PMI, ISM Non Manufacturing Data (PMI, Prices, New Orders and Employment), EIA Oil Report

Earnings  General Motors, Hilton Worldwide, Booking Holdings, Fox Corp., Uber Technologies, Etsy, PayPal, Allstate, Accolade, Cognizant Technology, MetLife, Marriott Vacations, CF Industries, Marathon Oil, CyberArk Software, Emerson Electric, Amerisourcebergen, BorgWarner, Zynga, Tanger Factory Outlet, Twilio

Thursday 6 May
AUSTRALIA  No data due  
JAPAN BoJ Meeting notes
S KOREA Foreign Exchange Reserves
Wholesale Prices, Inflation Rate
CHINA No data due  
No data due
Construction PMI, Retail Sales
GERMANY Factory Orders, Construction PMI
Construction PMI, Retail Sales,
UK Services and Composite PMI, BoE Interest Rate Decision, BoE Quantative Easing, Local Government Elections.
US Challenger Job Cuts, Unit Labour Costs, Nonfarm Productivity, Initial Claims, 4 week Average Claims, Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Report,

Earnings Regeneron, ViacomCBS, Kellogg, Moderna, Murphy Oil, Beyond Meat, Shake Shack, Square, Roku, Axon, Cushman and Wakefield, Tapestry, Neilsen, AIG, Anheuser-Busch, EOG Resources, Consolidated Edison, DropBox, Expedia, Roku, Peloton Interactive, Datadog, Cardinal Health, Ambac Financial

Friday 7 May
AUSTRALIA  Services Index, RBA Statement on Monetary Policy
JAPAN Average Cash Earnings, Services and Composite PMI,
S KOREA Current Account
Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports.
CHINA Caixin Services and Composite PMI, Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Foreign Exchange Reserves
Foreign Exchange Reserves
Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, Industrial Production, Current Account
Balance of Trade, Exports, Imports, industrial Production,
Construction PMI
US NonFarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Ave Weekly Hours, Ave Weekly Earnings, Participation Rate, Wholesale Inventories,  Baker Hughes Rig Count, Consumer Credit Change.

Earnings Cigna, Siemens, Gannett, AMC Networks, Draftkings, Liberty Broadband, Elanco Animal Health

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