Oct 8 VP debate; the Fly won. Asian Market Lunchtime Update

12 Oct

Oct 8 VP debate; the Fly won.  Asian Market Lunchtime Update

US Vice Presidential Debate.  The fly won.
A calmer debate, but still largely about personal attacks than real future policy. Both focused on past failings rather than future plans. Vice President Pence was seemingly following Trump’s policy of interrupting and continuing even when asked to end. He was rebuked for it but come out looking bad.

The highlight was probably a fly which landed on Pence’s head; and was quickly highlighted on social media; with one commenting ‘I know trash’.

Key areas were covid, climate change, trade, jobs and America’s posture toward China and Russia.

The final question was from an 8 year old student about the disagreements between people and politicians. Pence replied that strong debate was OK and could be done amongst friends. Harris pointed to Biden’s ability to work across the aisle; a better answer in my view.

Overall most probably think that Harris came out better, the fly was the social media winner and most people will remember Pence for interrupting and continuing even when asked by the moderator repeatedly to stop. He demonstrated his lack of respect for the moderator and the rules of the debate that he had agreed to. He came out looking bad.

Summary Asian Markets
Indexes opened higher following the US with Japan, Korea and Taiwan remaining positive. But Hong Kong sold off on news that Tencent may face US restrictions on its payment platform with -VE implications for Ant too.

Pre market data Current Account beat forecasts. Due shortly is the Eco Watchers survey.
The market opened at 23,503 and worked higher to 23,632 at lunch time. PM session opened high and moved higher currently +1.1% @ 23,677.

Data Current Account Aug Yen 2101.8b vs 1468.3b (F/cast was 1990b)
Stock Investment by Foreigners 3 Oct Yen 530.9b vs -274.4b revised
Bond Investment by Foreigners Oct Yen -341.1b vs -79.5b revised
Eco Watchers Survey due
Current Sept, Aug was 43.9 and F/cast is 45
Outlook Sept Aug was 42.4 and F/cast is 41

Pre market the Current account beat forecasts and good preliminary Q3 results from Samsung with Operating profit +58% but there are also rising covid cases following last weeks holiday. Market will be closed tomorrow for Hangul Day
Kospi opened higher but sold down to 2,384 level (yesterday’s closing level) before bouncing and worked back to 2,398. Currently +0.4% @ 2,396
Kosdaq opened higher but sold down to 868 around 10:30 am but having found support it then rebounded and worked back to 872 level and is now trading sideways Currently +0.3% @ 872

Market opened higher following the good export data that came out after market on Wednesday and effective has traded sideways around the 12,850 level. Currently +0.9% @ 12,857
After market the data due today Inflation Rate, Wholesale Prices.

CHINA Market is closed but re-opens tomorrow.

Pre Market opened +21pts @ 24,263 vs +20pts ADRs. Handset equipment names were strong. E-commerce names were +VE But market sold down ro 24,050 in the first 20 minutes. It saw small bounce but then sold down further to 24,020 level before trade sideways into lunch. Closed +0.8% @ 24,054. With Casino’s weak on a JPM downgrade worried about a slow recovery rate. E-commerce names seeing weakness. Handset components, Auto and Solar seeing some interest.

Expect market to flat following the mixed Asian markets. Key data will be the German Trade data but also influencing the markets will be the rising number of covid cases and the potential for more social distancing measure -VE for sentiment. Also caution ahead of the US initial claims data.
Data due
EUROZONE ECM Monetary Policy Minutes
GERMANY Balance of Trade, Exports and Imports
UK BoE FPC Statement

Futures opened flat but have worked slightly better; Dow +52pts, S&P +0.2% and NDX +0.3%
But market likely to open cautiously ahead of the Initial Jobless claims data. There are still hopes of some stimulus.
Data due today Initial Claims, 4 week Ave Claims, EIA Natural Gas Report, Fed speakers Barkin and Kaplan

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