July 2 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts muted trading ahead of US jobs and long weekend


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Asia Expect caution ahead of the US jobs data and the long weekend in the US; with markets closed on Monday.

Australia Futures indicate market to open +31pts, Oil names strong along with gold and miners.  IDP in focus on announcing a new acquisition.
Data due Home Loans, Investment Lending for Homes,
Japan Nikkei futures opened 17pts (Chicago futures -45pts). Shipping remains firm and Retail names in focus on +VE sales numbers.
S Korea Expect markets to open slightly  higher following the US and the slightly weaker than f/cast inflation data.
Taiwan Expect market to open slightly higher with old economy names continuing to grind higher but caution ahead of US jobs and long weekend.
China Expect market to open slight lower with concerns over international relations and debt defaults.  Wild card remains Team China but less important now July 1 passed.
Hong Kong to reopen  ADR’s +139pts @ 28,966 with weakness in China Financials and Ecommerce.  Expect an initial surge as recent shorts cover.
Europe Likely to follow Asia;
Data ahead: Eurozone PPI and Fench Budget Balance
US Futures 
Opened Dow -9pts, S&P and NDX slightly -VE ahead of the jobs report.

World’s leading economies agree global minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15%  at the OECD talks in Paris; the historic agreement was signed by 130 countries.  For implementation by 2023.

Tim Berners-Lee’s source code for the World Wide Web on Wednesday sold for US$5.4 million in the form of non-fungible token (NFT)

DOW +0.38%, NDX +0.13%, S&P +0.52%, Russel 2K +0.81%
Markets opened higher Dow and S&P traded sideways just above flat and in the PM worked slightly better.  NDX traded around flat. Good initial claims, PMI and ISM data.
Energy leading the gain as crude prices rose and OPEC+ delaying their meeting. Tech and Consumer Staples the laggards. With continued interest in the US reflationary trade. Nike +VE but Walgreen Boots -5% despite good earnings.
Hertz +23% but off early highs, saw volatile trading on its first day after coming out of bankruptcy
Krispy Kreme +24% on its debut.
Banks 
JPMorgan Chase +1%, Citigroup +0.4% Wells Fargo +0.3%, Amex +1.3%
Work from home names: Facebook +1.9%, Apple +0.2%, Amazon -0.2%, Netflix +1%,  Disney +0.9%, Zoom Video -0.1%, Alphabet +0.3% and Microsoft +0.3%,
Tech NXP Semi 1.9%, Nvidia +1.1%, Micron -5.7% following earnings, AMD -0.7%, Skyworks -1.4%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing flat, Caterpillar -0.5%, Simon Property +0.8%, Kohl’s +0.1%, Nordstrom -0.2%, Gap -0.4%, United Airlines +1.5%, Carnival flat, Wynn Resorts +0.1% off early highs, Chevron +1.4%, Exxon Mobil +0.3%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup +0.3%, General Mills -1.2%, JM Smucker +0.3%
DATA
Challenger Job Cuts Jun 20.476k vs 24.586k May (F/cast was 30k)
Initial Claims 364k vs 415k prior (F/cast was 370k)
4 week Average Claims 392.75k vs 398.75k prior (F/cast was 393.25k)
Continuing Claims 3.469m vs 3.413m prior (F/cast was 3.32m)
Manufacturing PMI Final Jun 62.1 vs 62.1 May (F/cast was 62.6)
Construction Spending May -0.3% MoM vs +0.1% Apr revised (F/cast was +0.6%)
ISM Manufacturing
PMI Jun 60.6 vs 61.2 May (F/cast was 61)
Prices Jun 92.1 vs 88 May (F/cast was 89)
New Orders Jun 66 vs 67 May (F/cast was 66)
Employment Jun 49.9 vs 50.9 May (F/cast was 51)
EIA Natural Gas Report 76 Bcf vs 55 Bcf prior (Consensus was 68 Bcf)
USD was slightly stronger vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin -3.6% @ 33,513.75, VIX +2.2% @ 15.48, US T10 @ 1.459% after good jobs numbers.
OIL Brent +2%, WTI +2.4% hitting US$75 for the first time since Oct 2018. OPEC+ meeting to continue Friday after meeting collapsed.
Gold +0.2%, Silver -0.5%, Copper -1.1% Platinum +0.8%, Palladium -0.5%.
AHEAD
Balance of Trade, Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Ave Hourly Earnings, Participation Rate, Ave Weekly Hours, Government Payroll, Manufacturing Payrolls, Exports, Imports, Factory Orders, Baker Hughes Rig Count.

DAX +0.47%, CAC +0.71%, FTSE +1.25%
Markets opened higher and initially rose before selling down with the DAX and CAC dipping into the red; they then traded slightly higher.  FTSE followed a similar path but was in the green all day.  Strong PMI data but German retail sales were weak.  Afternoon sentiment helped by the better than expected US initial claims data.
Resources strong and Travel & Leisure saw a good rebound as travel certificates come into effect.
Associated British Foods +4.8% ongood earnings at Primark and it raised its full-year outlook.
H&M -1.1% despite beating and estimates and giving a +VE outlook.
Grand City Properties -2.5% after a dividend announcement.
DATA
EUROZONE
Manufacturing Final PMI Jun 63.4 vs 63.1 May (F/cast was 63.1)
Unemployment Rate May 7.9% vs 8.1% Apr revised (F/cast was 7.9%)
GERMANY
Retail sales  May -2.4% YoY vs +5.1% Apr revised  (F/cast was +6.3%)
Retail sales May +4.2% MoM vs -6.8% Apr revised (F/cast was +5.1%)
Manufacturing Final PMI Jun 65.1 vs 64.4 May (F/cast was 64.9)
FRANCE
Manufacturing Final PMI Jun 59 vs 59.4 May (F/cast was 58.6)
UK
Manufacturing Final PMI Jun 63.9 vs 65.6 May (F/cast was 64.2)
AHEAD
EUROZONE PPI
GERMANY 
No data due  
FRANCE 
Budget Balance
UK 
No data due  

JAPAN 
Nikkei futures opened 17pts (Chicago futures -45pts). Shipping remains firm and Retail names in focus on +VE sales numbers.
Yen currently 111.53
No data due
Earnings

Askul Corp. (2678 JP)
Hiday Hidaka Corp. (7611 JP)
Ryohin Keikaku Co. (7453 JP)
S-Pool Inc. (2471 JP)
Toshin Group Co. (2761 JP)
Tokyo reported 673 new covid cases Thursday (-44 DoD).  The national number was 1,751.
Municipal elections on Sunday expected to result in LDP gains but they will be watched closely.
Toyota sold 688,813 vehicles during the second quarter, topping GM’s sales of 688,236 vehicles.  The last time GM wasn’t the best-selling automaker for a quarter was when Ford outsold them during the Great Recession in the third quarter of 1998, Edmunds reports  +VE.
Nissan said on Thursday that a $1.4 billion investment in a new electric vehicle and battery plant in northern England showed that the Japanese carmaker was dedicated to Britain for at least the next decade.  “We are choosing Sunderland, so it is showing the trust that the company, that the government, that our partner, have with the plant,” +VE
SoftBank Group Corp said on Thursday it plans to raise $7.35 billion this month by selling U.S. dollar- and euro-denominated bonds, the Japanese conglomerate’s first such foreign bond sale in three years.   It is also leading the funding to Vault Kitopi Past $1 Billion Value.
The air forces of Japan and the Philippines will hold their first-ever joint exercises next week, Japan’s embassy in Manila said Thursday, in a further sign of deepening defense ties between the two countries +VE.
Headlines
Bridgestone (5108): To invest spend $139m to expand Brazil plant
Heiwado (8276): 1Q operating profit +88% y/y to 2.9b yen
Isetan Mitsukoshi (3099): June department-store sales +1.8% y/y
J Front Retail (3086): June department-store sales +1.3% y/y
Kaken Pharm (4521): Enters European rights pact with Almirall for efinaconazole
Kusuri no Aoki (3549): 4Q operating profit 3.4b yen vs analyst estimate 2.9b yen; forecasts OP of 16.3b yen for current fiscal year vs estimate 17.5b yen; June same-store sales -6.8% y/y
Nexon (3659): Posts 4.5b yen non-consolidated charge on cryptoassets
Nippon Yusen (9101): Boosts full-year net income target to 350b yen from 140b yen
Osaka Organic Chem (4187): 1H operating profit 2.8b yen vscompany forecast 2.9b yen
Seven & i (3382): Forecasts full-year operating profit of 380b yen vsanalyst estimate 441.4b yen; aims for 50,000 stores globally, excluding Japan and North America by end-2026
Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063): To spend 20b yen on Gunma plant green measures
Sysmex (6869): Forms cancer companion diagnostics alliance with Qiagen
Takashimaya (8233): June same-store sales +2.6% y/y
Weathernews (4825): Full-year operating profit 2.4b yen vs company forecast 2.3b yen; targets OP of 2.6b yen for current fiscal year
Workman (7564): June same-store sales -17.5% y/y

SOUTH KOREA 
Expect markets to open slightly higher following the US and the slightly weaker than f/cast inflation data.
Data 
Inflation Rate Jun +2.4% YoY vs +2.6% May (F/cast was 2.8%)
Inflation Rate Jun -0.1% MoM vs +0.1% May (F/cast was +0.2%)
KDCA reported 762 new covid cases
The current ban on outdoor rallies of 10 or more people in Seoul will  remain in place until next week, the metropolitan government said  Thursday, scrapping its earlier plan to ease the restrictions at the  beginning of this month.
Krafton, the company behind blockbuster video game "PlayerUnknown's Battlegrounds" (PUBG), cut its IPO target by nearly a quarter on Thursday after a regulator warned it needed to revise its filings.  The company, which counts Tencent Holdings Ltd (0700.HK) as its second-biggest shareholder, has revised the indicative price range for its 8.7 million share offering to 400,000-498,000 won per share.
LG Chem announced Thursday that the company received positive results from the phase 2 clinical trial of its gout treatment candidate LC350189 in the US. The global gout therapeutics market is expected to reach a value of $8.5 billion by 2025, according to LG Chem. +VE
Seegene said Thursday that the company has partnered with Bio-Rad Laboratories for the clinical development and commercialization of diagnostic products in the US.  Under the agreement, Seegene will provide the company’s diagnostic tests for use on Bio-Rad’s molecular diagnostic CFX96 Dx Real-Time PCR Detection Systems. Seegene said the company expects that the latest contract with Bio-Rad  will provide a competitive edge to the company in the US market.  +VE  

TAIWAN 
Expect market to open slightly higher with old economy names continuing to grind higher but caution ahead of US jobs and long weekend.
No data due
The manufacturing PMI last month slowed as companies continued to see business improve, but at the slowest pace in seven months due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  The growth momentum could cool further until operating conditions normalize, the international research body said in a report. Respondents indicated that production schedules were affected by raw  material shortages, as well as the recent rise in domestic COVID-19  cases.   At the same time, growth in new work also slowed to a 10-month  low, with companies saying the outbreak weakened domestic demand.  
CECC reported 50 new covid cases and the infection source of two patients  infected with the Delta variant of the virus in Pingtung County has been  confirmed.  47 were domestically transmitted.
The Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) yesterday accused the “increasingly authoritarian” Chinese Communist Party (CCP) of threatening global democracy, after Chinese President Xi Jinping in his centenary address touted the party’s accomplishments and commitment to restoring “territorial integrity.”  “The CCP’s historical policy blunders and persistent harmful actions  pose a grave threat to regional security and global liberal democracy,”  the council said.  The CCP must reflect on its mistakes and promote democratic  reforms as soon as possible to return political power to the people, it  said.
Innolux Corp’s shareholders yesterday approved the company’s proposal to divest its shares in InnoCare Optoelectronics Corp  paving the way for the medical display manufacturer’s initial public offering (IPO) +VE.

CHINA 
Expect market to open slight lower with concerns over international relations and debt defaults. Wild card remains Team China but less important now July 1 passed.
No data due
IPO 
Qingdao Hi-Tech Moulds & Plastics Technology (301022 CH) Trading Debut
President Xi Jinping hailed China's "irreversible" course from humiliated colony to great power at the centenary celebrations for the Chinese Communist Party on Thursday, in a speech reaching deep into history to remind patriots at home and rivals abroad of his nation's -- and his own -- ascendancy.  He also focused on re-unification of Taiwan.
Headlines
Industrial Securities (601377 CH): Industrial Securities Prelim 1H Net Income +40% to +60%
Merchants Securities (600999 CH): Merchants Securities Prelim 1H Net Income +27% to +37%
Orient Securities (600958 CH): Orient Securities Prelim 1H Net Income 2.44B Yuan to 2.75B Yuan
Power Construction (601669 CH): Mexico’s CFE Pays $270M After Losing in Arbitration: Celis

HONG KONG to reopen  ADR’s +139pts @ 28,966 with weakness in China Financials and Ecommerce.  Expect an initial surge as recent shorts cover.  
No data due but after market Wednesday
Retail Sales May +7.8% YoY vs 11% Apr (F/cast was +12%)

IPO SCE Intelligent Commercial Management Holding (606 HK) Trading Debut

Short Selling Wednesday 13.8% vs 16.5% Tuesday
Top Shorts 
Bank of China (3988) 39%, Hengan (1044) 37%, Hang Seng Bank (11) 37%, Citic (267) 31%, BYD Co (1211) 29%, Bud Apac (1876) 28%, BankComm (3328) 25%, Henderson (12) 25%, Petrochina (857) 25%

National Security
Four members of a student group were arrested
after setting up a street  counter in Mong Kok this afternoon, along with 15 other people
A Policeman was stabbed in Causeway Bay and his attacker them killed himself.
RTHK will axe a weekly news commentary session of phone-in radio program Open Line Open View, according to a veteran journalist who co-hosted the session.  Seems the station wants to avoid politically sensitive issues -VE
A librarian has been suspended for putting all of Next Digital founder Jimmy Lai Chee-ying's 13 books on a public library shelf. 
After market Wednesday news
Gaming revenues in Macau rose for the fifth straight month, surging 8.12 times year-on-year to 6.54 billion patacas (HK$6.35 billion) in June, beating estimates, official data showed.

However, on a monthly basis, gaming revenue fell 37.4 percent affected by re-emerging Covid cases in Guangdong province. June's numbers are only 27 percent of the level seen before the pandemic struck.  Gross gaming revenues for the first half grew 45.4 percent to 49.02 billion patacas from a year ago.
Macau's health bureau said it has reached a primary agreement for quarantine-free visits by vaccinated Hongkongers
, and that such travel can start 14 days after Hong Kong's last Covid-19 case with unknown source.  However the Health Bureau of Macao stressed that no date has been confirmed yet.  According to health official from Macao, individuals who enter Macao will see their health code labeled blue. They will need to undergo virus test upon arrival and live on designated floors of hotels as well.  Slight +VE gaming stocks
Local property transactions surged 74.2 percent year-on-year to HK$468.71 billion in the first half as of June 29, hitting a 24-year high, according to Midland Realty.  The transactions included residential properties in the primary and secondary market, commercial properties and car-parking spaces, and the number of transactions jumped 52.1 percent to 49,795 in the first half as of June 29, a more-than-eight-year high, it said.   +VE

Headlines
Alibaba (9988 HK): Alibaba Health-Backed LinkDoc May Raise Up to$211M in U.S. IPO
CICC (3908 HK): CICC Prelim 1H Net Income 4.43B Yuan to 5.04B Yuan
China Galaxy Sec. (6881 HK): China Galaxy Sec. Prelim 1H Net Income +15% to +20%
Evergrande (3333 HK): Evergrande June Contracted Sales 71.63B Yuan
PetroChina (857 HK): BP Buys LNG From PetroChina for End-Aug. Delivery to Tianjin
Sinopec (386 HK): Sinopec Prelim 1H Net Income 36.5B Yuan to 38.5B Yuan
Zijin Mining (2899 HK): Zijin Mining Prelim 1H Net Income 6.2B Yuan to 6.6B Yuan

NEWS
The moderated monthly rise in retail sales in Hong Kong for May was due to last year's base, 
while the current consumption sentiment is still gloomy with the overall sales not yet returning to the pre-epidemic level, said Annie Yau Tse, Chairman of Hong Kong Retail Management Association (HKRMA). Since June is a traditional low season, the Chairman predicted the retail sales hike in June to come in slightly slimmer than May's, and the 1H21 retail may deliver high-single-digit growth.

Wheelock Properties' Managing Director Ricky Wong expressed in a press conference that, including the collaboration projects, the company has sold at least 1,050 units in the first half of the year, cashing in $18.2 billion, already exceeding that of the entire last year of approximately $11.5 billion. Wong projected the full-year sales in 2021 may likely reach over $20 billion. On another note, Wong projected at least 5-8% hike for the Hong Kong home prices in the second half of the year, considering the fact that the pandemic is becoming under control, paired with robust economic recovery and the vibrant market sentiment.

REGINA MIRACLE (02199.HK) announced the results for the year ended 31 March 2021, recording a net profit of $126 million, down 56.7% year-over-year, with an EPS of 10.3 HK cents. The company also declared a total amount of dividend worth 4.8 HK cents, including 3.3 HK cents final dividend and 1.5 HK cents special dividend.

China's policy of allowing a couple to have three children can hardly reverse the deceleration of population growth, forecast Fitch Ratings.
The nation's seventh national census suggested that population growth remained feeble although the government has since 2011 revoked "one child policy" progressively.
While the average annual population growth rate of China from 2010 to 2020 hit the trough since the onset of the census, the natural population growth rate in 2020 was the lowest since 1960.
Fitch did not see the latest population policy to increase births drastically as young couples, especially those in tier 1 and 2 cities, kept shouldering high costs from home price surge and education expenses.

Fitch Ratings initiated CALC (01848.HK) a Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of BB+ and a Short-Term IDR of B. 
The Outlook on the Long-Term IDR is Stable. The Stable outlook indicated the rating agency's expectation that CALC will maintain sufficient liquidity to support larger orders, given sturdy operating environment in China.

SFC published "Annual Report 2020-21" which stated that the total income for the year ended by March was $3.008 billion, up 89% year-over-year. Owing to the increase in income, a surplus of $979 million was recorded for the year, compared to a deficit of $375 million last year.
The report further stated that as of 31 March 2021, the number of licensees and registrants increased to 47,178, of which the number of licensed corporations rose to 3,159.