May 28 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts Asia to open higher Japan CPI in line unemployment slight rise

28 May

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Australia Futures indciate market to open +54pts Oil higher overnight +VE Santos and Woodside but Gold eased -VENewcrest and St Barbara.  Afterpay in focus as rival Klarna announced backing from Softbank.  Link Admin in the new on a rumoured offer for its  PEXA business. Ingham’s has provided +VE guidance for investors on its expected earnings and profit for the second half +VE
Victoria has recorded 4 new local cases of coronavirus, while 2 new cases were acquired overseas.
Japan Nikkei futures opened -7pts pre data but rallied to +25pts on its release, expect the market to open higher.
S Korea Expect markets to open higher but volumes likely to be lighter ahead of US and UK long weekend.
Taiwan Market to open higher following the US but upside muted ahead of the weekend
China Market to open higher but investors still concerned about high commodity prices and international relations, Team China still the wild card
HK ADR’s ADR’s +125 pts at 29,237 with just CCB, CKHutch and Baba in the red.   Expect an initial squeeze as shorts cover but then for the market to consolidate after the MSCI rebalance moves.  T/O lighter with US and UK markets closed Monday.  
US Futures
Opened Dow +122pts S&P +0.3% and NDX +0.22% on increased optimism on the recovery

DOW +0.41%, NDX -0.01%, S&P +0.12%, Russel 2K +1.06% Trading volumes muted ahead of  Memorial Weekend
Mixed open; Dow higher but trended lower in the morning.
S&P slightly higher and traded sideways just above flat. NDX dipped initially but recovered and traded sideways just above flat. Further signs into cyclical’s on a good jobs number and higher than expected PCE data.
Snowflake -4.2% as losses widened. Nvidia’s -1.4%, despite good earnings.
Meme stocks jumped as speculative trading returns, could be linked to the recent sell off in crypto; GameStop +4.8%. AMC Entertainment +35%.
Ford +7% with a broker upgrade
Republicans unveiled their $928 billion infrastructure counteroffer to President Biden’s $1.7 trillion proposal; rejecting the call to raise corporate taxes, contending they could cover infrastructure costs with funds already allocated by Congress or with transportation user fees.
Treasury Sec Yellen called on congressional leaders to step up spending, saying that inflation-adjusted spending has remained stagnant for 11 years
U.S. chip subsidy effort faces pushback over China issues. A series of amendments for a $190 billion U.S. Senate bill aimed at countering China’s technology challenge are in limbo after business groups protested proposals intended to ensure that none of the money finds its way to China or other U.S. rivals.
Banks JPMorgan Chase +1.6%, Citigroup +1.6% Wells Fargo +0.8%, AMEX +0.7%
Work from home names: Facebook +1.6%, Apple -1.2%, Amazon -1.1%, Netflix +0.3%,  Disney +1.5%, Zoom Video +0.1%, Alphabet -0.7% and Microsoft -0.9%,
Tech NXP Semi +2%, Nvidia -1.4% despite an earnings beat, Micron +2.1%, AMD +0.1%, Skyworks +1.2%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing +3.9%, Caterpillar +1.5%, Simon Property +1.3%, Kohl’s +1.7%, Nordstrom -0.2%, Gap +3.3%, United Airlines +1.9%, Carnival +2.2%, Wynn Resorts +0.2%, Chevron -1.1%, Exxon Mobil -0.7%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup -1.1% General Mills -0.9%,  JM Smucker -1.6%
Salesforce +4.7% in extended trading (was -1.7% in normal hours) Q1 earning beat expectations on its top and bottom lines.
HP Inc -5.8% (was -0.2% in normal hours) despite the company’s better-than-expected second-quarter results.
Durable Goods Orders Apr -1.3% MoM vs +1.3% Mar revised  (F/cast was +0.7%)
Durable Goods Orders Ex Trans Apr +1% MoM vs +3.2% Mar revised (F/cast was +0.8%)
Durable Goods Orders Ex Defence Apr 0% MoM vs +2.2% Mar revised (F/cast was +0.4%)
GDP Price Index 2nd est Q1 4.3% QoQ vs +1.9% Q4 (F/cast was +4.1%)
GDP Growth Rate 2nd est Q1 +6.4% QoQ vs 4.3% Q4 (F/cast was +6.4%)
Corporate Profits Prelim Q1 -0.8% QoQ vs -3.3% Q4 (F/cast was 2%)
Initial Claims 406k vs 444k prior (F/cast was 425k)
4 week Average Claims 458.75k vs 504.75k prior (F/cast was 463.5k)
Continuing Claims 3.642m vs 3.738m prior (F/cast was 3.72m)
Core PCE Prices 2nd Est Q1 +2.5% QoQ vs +1.3% Q4 (F/cast was +2.3%)
PCE Prices 2nd Est Q1 +3.7% QoQ vs +1.5% Q4 (F/cast was +3.5%)
Pending Home Sales Apr +51.7% YoY vs +23% Mar (F/cast was 35%)
Pending Home Sales Apr -4.4% MoM vs +1.7% Mar revised (F/cast was +2%)
EIA Natural Gas Report 115Bcf vs 71 Bcf prior (Consensus was 104 Bcf)
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index May 32 vs 40 Apr (F/cast was 32)
7 year Note Auction 1.285% vs 1.306% prior USD was flat vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +1.7% @ 38,948, VIX -3.6% @ 16.74,
US T10 @ 1.606% as initial claims drop
OIL Brent +0.03%, WTI +0.98% on good US data
Gold -0.3%, Silver +0.5%, Copper +3% Platinum -1%, Palladium +2.3%.
Personal Spending and Income, Goods Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, PCE Price Index, Core PCE Price Index, Chicago PMI, Michigan Data Final (Current Conditions, Consumer Expectations, 5 yr Inflation Exepctations, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations) Baker Hughes Rig Count Presdients FY 2022 Budget.
Fed Speakers None

DAX -0.28%, CAC +0.7%, FTSE -0.1%
Markets opened mixed DAX lower  (on weak confidence data) and FTSE flat both traded just in the red for most of the day.  CAC flat but worked higher for most of the day but eased lower in the last 90 minutes as the US jobs report was the lowest during the pandemic.  Basic Resources lead the gains but Healthcare weak.
Earnings from Johnson Matthey -3.6%, Pets at Home +0.04% off initial highs, Daily Mail & General Trust +3.2%, United Utilities -1.2% and Ted Baker +1.3%.
Airbus +9% after the planemaker announced ambitious production plans, targeting 64 A320 models per month by the second quarter of 2023.
Tate & Lyle’s -5.2% despite achieving double-digit growth for its fiscal year and increasing its dividend,
EUROZONE No data due, ECB’s Guindos, Elderson & Schnabel Speeches
Gfk Consumer Confidence Jun -7 vs -8.6 May Revised (F/cast was -3)
Bundesbank Weidmann Speech
Unemployment Benefit Claims Apr 65.9k vs -16.8k Mar (-26k)
Jobseekers Total Apr 3.6238m vs 3.5579m Mar (F/cast was 3.5319m)
Car Production Apr +34573% YoY vs 46.6% Mar (F/cast was +125%) (Reflects only 197 car built last April vs 68,306 this year, still 3.8% below April 2019 output)
BoE’s Vlieghe Speech
DATA ahead
Consumer Confidence & Inflation Expectations, Sentiment (Economic, Industrial and Services),
Import Prices
GDP Growth Rate, Inflation Rate, Household Consumption, PPI
No data due

Nikkei futures opened -7pts pre data but rallied to +25pts on its release, expect the market to open higher.
Yen currently 109.84
Data out
Unemployment Apr 2.8% vs 2.6% Mar (F/cast was +2.7%)
Job/Application Ratio Apr 1.09 vs 1.1 Mar (F/cast was 1.1)
Tokyo Core CPI May -0.2% YoY vs -0.2% Apr (F/cast was -0.2%)
Tokyo CPI May -0.4% YoY vs -0.6% Apr (F/cast was -0.4%)
Monday pre market we get Industrial Production and Retail Sales
Tokyo reported 684 new covid cases Thursday ( -49 DoD) Nationally the number was 4,139
Govt to decide on extending state of emergency after consulting a panel of experts on Friday  many expect it will be extended  -VE for the economy.
A Japanese doctors' union warned on Tuesday that holding the Olympic Games in Tokyo this summer, with tens of thousands of people from around the world, could lead to the emergence of an "Olympic" strain of the coronavirus. Comes as EU and Japan administrations backed holding the Olympics.
Nintendo Co plans to begin assembly of its new Switch as soon as July and release the upgraded replacement for its four-year-old game console in September or October, people familiar with the matter said.  The new console, likely to be priced higher than the US$299 original, might be announced ahead of the E3 conference starting on June 12 to allow publishers to showcase their full range of Switch games at the global event, the people said, asking not to be named because the plans are not yet public. +VE
FT Reports SoftBank and WeWork co-founder Adam Neumann agree divorce deal Entrepreneur to receive hundreds of millions of dollars in settlement before listing attempt Slight -VE but allows Spac listing to proceed.
Nissan being sued by around 90 institutional investors based outside Japan; seeking damages from Nissan Motor Co, saying they suffered huge losses as former boss Carlos Ghosn's financial misconduct cases dented  share prices, sources close to the matter said. The investors maintain that Nissan could easily have forecast a drop in stock prices due to damaged trust in the company's accounting and corporate governance if the incident was reported by news media.
Nissan, which was also indicted in connection with financial misconduct by Ghosn, declined to comment on the trial.

Expect markets to open higher but volumes likely to be lighter ahead of US and UK long weekend.
No data due
but Monday pre market Industrial Prodcution, Construction Output and Retail Sales
KDCA reported 629 new covid cases Thursday (-78 DoD)
BoK on Thursday took a more hawkish stance toward an interest rate hike by the end of the year, while upgrading its economic outlook for this year to 4% from 3%.
BMW Korea plans to add more benefits to its existing premium membership program provided to owners of its Luxury Class models, the global carmaker announced Thursday. +VE
Kia will run a pilot “pick up and charge” program for the convenience of electric vehicle users, officials said Thursday. +VE
SPC Samlip has signed an exclusive contract with US-based Chobani to distribute and sell their yogurt products here, the company said Thursday.  Starting July, SPC Samlip said it will exclusively supply Chobani products to retailers here, and also work on producing new products under the brand using homegrown ingredients. Chobani supports the Farmer’s Assuring Responsible Management animal welfare program.
HMM -- formerly Hyundai Merchant Marine -- has vowed to halve carbon emissions by 2030, as part of its blueprint to attain carbon neutrality by 2050. +VE
Samsung Electronics is rolling out a new mid-power LED package, the LM301B EVO, which boasts the highest light efficacy and innovative color quality for indoor and industrial applications, the company said Thursday. +VE
Hanwha Solutions, the chemical arm under Hanwha Group, said Thursday that it will begin supplying hydrogen fuel to car parts company Hyundai Mobis, a step toward a more active role in the expanding hydrogen market. +VE

Expect market to open higher following the US but upside muted ahead of the weekend
No data due
CECC reported 667 domestic coronavirus disease infections, four imported infections and 13 deaths, Thursday 
Of the domestic  infections, 401 were newly confirmed and 266 were from a backlog of test  results confirmed over the last several days, the CECC said.
Taiwan does not believe that China is sincere in offering it COVID-19 vaccines and thinks it is working to prevent the nation from getting shots for political reasons,
officials briefed on the matter told reporters. Taiwan says that China blocked it from getting vaccines produced by Germany’s BioNTech, while China says it is happy to send a supply of that vaccine via its Chinese sales agent, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical Group Co.  However, Taiwan will not take the vaccines from Fosun, saying that there is a lack of transparency and that China refuses to provide relevant information. -VE
Consumer confidence shed 2.4 points to 74.88 this month, as a spike in COVID-19 infections hit all six indices, which could further weaken next month, a National Central University survey released yesterday found. -VE
The government’s business climate monitor for last month flashed “red” for a third straight month, indicating a booming economy that has not yet reflected a recent surge in COVID-19 infections in the nation, the National Development Council said yesterday. -VE
Terry Gou founder of manufacturing giant Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., has offered to procure COVID-19 vaccines from abroad for Taiwan, a top aide to the businessman confirmed Thursday, following reports implying the tycoon has already been in talks with a Chinese pharmaceutical company. Gou is looking to purchase the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine through Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co. (Fosun Pharma), said Amanda Liu, chief executive officer of YongLin Charity and Education Foundation, which was also founded by Gou, during a donation event.

Expect market to open higher but investors still concerned about high commodity prices and international relations, Team China still the wild card
No data due 
but Monday we get manufacturing and non PMI data pre market
Guangzhou registered four local covid cases and Shenzhen two on Wednesday,
triggering large-scale testing. More than a million residents of Guangzhou had to complete the tests following a restaurant outbreak. -VE
Chinese regulators including the central bank will crack down on manipulation of the forex market, 
according to a statement published on the PBoC's website on Thursday, Reuters reports.  The regulators said the current foreign exchange market is largely balanced and the yuan could move in either direction in the future.
U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai said on Wednesday that the United States still faces “very large challenges” in its trade and economic relationship with China
that require the Biden administration’s attention across the board.  That contrasts with the Chinese statement that they were “a candid, pragmatic and constructive exchange”. -VE
BMW, Daimler and Ford have set up facilities in China to store data generated by their cars locally, they told Reuters,
as automakers come under growing pressure in the world’s biggest car market over how they handle information from vehicles. Slight -VE
Australia's ambassador to China was denied entry to a heavily guarded Beijing court on Thursday that is hearing an espionage case against Australian blogger Yang Hengjun.  China said the case involved state secrets and so could not be heard in open court. Yang, an Australian citizen born in China, wrote about Chinese and U.S. politics online as a high-profile blogger and also penned a series of spy novels before his detention two years ago. -VE
US urges WHO to carry out second phase of coronavirus origin study in China.  The initial investigation was ‘insufficient and inconclusive’, the US says, calling for independent experts to be given full access to original data and samples.   -VE for international relations.
China’s defence ministry on Thursday said the United States should show “sincerity” about improving communication between their militaries after reports that US attempts to set up talks were rejected by Beijing.  The defence ministry also warned that America’s Indo-Pacific strategy was “pulling the region down a dangerous path”, with the US stepping up reconnaissance against China and a recent close encounter between their warships.
SCMP reports China’s factories decry surge in raw material prices as they cut production and say 2021 may be worse than 2020.  Manufacturers in the ‘world’s factory’ say it is too risky to take new orders, resulting in shutdowns and staff cuts that could threaten China’s economic growth goals for the year.  Even as supply lines have shifted back to China from coronavirus-hit countries, crucial raw materials such as metals are becoming too expensive to turn a profit   -VE


ADR’s 125 pts at 29,237 with just CCB, CKHutch and Baba in the red. Expect an initial squeeze as shorts cover but then for the market to consolidate after the MSCI rebalance moves. T/O lighter with US and UK markets closed Monday.

IPO JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK), debut Friday. Closed Friday at $48.55 in gray market, up $8.19 or 20.3%
against the listing price of $40.36, on volume of 1.3 million shares and turnover  of $649 million, PhillipMart data showed. 

Earning due Friday include: Sincere (244), Meituan (3690)

No data due but After market Thursday
Balance of Trade Apr HK$-31.8b vs HK$-27bMar (F/cast was HK$-20b )
Exports Apr +24.4% YoY vs +26.4% Mar
Imports Apr +25.2% YoY vs +21.7% Mar

Short Selling Thursday 17.5% vs 18.8% Wednesday
Top Shorts 
Ping An (2318) 42%, Henderson Land (12) 39%, Sands China (1928) 37%, Shenzhou Int (2313) 29%, Mengniu Dairy (2319) 29%, Techtronics (669) 28%, SHKP (16) 27%, Country Garden (2007) 27%, Wuxi Bio (2269) 26%, Haidilao (6862) 25%, Baba (9988) 25%, Ali Health (241) 25%.  

Police have banned the annual candlelight vigil at Victoria Park and a march commemorating the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen crackdown for the second year in a row, again citing social distancing measures that remain in force.

But organizer Hong Kong Alliance in Support of Patriotic Democratic Movements of China said they would appeal the police decision to the Security Bureau's appeal board on public meetings and processions.  Comes coincidential after the Government announced that social distancing measures currently in place will be extended for 14 days until June 9 and despite no reported covid cases in Hong Kong.
Press reports more than 34,000 Hongkongers apply for BNO visa to the UK in its first 2 months 
NY Times says Hong Kong has jailed nearly 300 people so far for their role in pro-democracy protests

SINO BIOPHARM (01177.HK) announced that Vice Chairman and Executive Director Zheng Xiangling increased 1.38 million shares 
of the company at an average price of $8.9672 per share on 27 May, involving approx $12.3747 million.

The Pavilia Farm III, the residential project co-developed by NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) and MTR CORP (00066.HK) atop Tai Wai Station, unveiled the first price list for 182 units
measuring 310-1,014 sq.ft. each. Based on the maximum discount, the sales prices of the project range $6.748-23.832 million.
Comes as data shows only 6,261 public rental housing units were completed last year, -40% YoY according to the Housing Authority, marking the lowest record in ten years since 2011/12.  For subsidized sale flats, only 5,000 ones were completed last year. Taking the two numbers into account, there were only 11,261 public housing units completed last year, marking another lowest record in nine years.
Next Digital's shares closed  +50.54% Thursday a year-high off initial highs as the shares resumed trading.
LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK) Chairman Yang Yuanqing said during performance phone meeting that the component shortage, especially that of chips, is expected to last for 12 to 18 months and is considered to be a consequence of the better-than-expected increased demand of products like electric cars.  However, he adds that with the company's robust supply chain and unique operating mode, he remains confident that LENOVO GROUP would still outperform the market as well as its main competitors and will be able to maintain the momentum for growth.
Information from Macau's Statistics and Census Service (DSEC) indicated that the number of guests checked into hotels & guesthouses leapt by 550% year-on-year
to 694,000 in April 2021. The average occupancy rate of guest rooms surged by 45.9 percentage points year-on-year to 58.5%. Data on hotels & guesthouses designated for medical observation were excluded in the compilation of the results.
CK Asset (1113) announced it has completed the HK$19.38 billion share buyback proposal yesterday and the acquisition of four assets from the Li Ka Shing Foundation last Friday.
HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK) announced that Raymond K F Ch’ien has retired as an Independent Non-executive Director of the Bank and ceased to be the Chairman of the Board and Nomination Committee, and a member of the Remuneration Committee.
Irene Y L Lee has succeeded the above positions with effect from 27 May 2021.
HUIXIN CREDIT (01577.HK) announced that from 27 December 2019 to 30 December 2020, for treasury purpose, the group entered into a series of transactions involving acquisitions and a disposal of TENCENT (00700.HK) shares
on the open market. The net aggregate consideration for the previous TENCENT transactions was RMB45.999 million.
Spot USD/CNY closed at 6.3758, up 172 bps, setting an about-three-year high. As at 16:34, USD/CNY added 158 bps in the night session. USD/CNH stood at 6.3706, up 90 bps.
John Lee Ka Chiu, Secretary for Security, had issued letters to the founder of NEXT DIGITAL (00282.HK) Jimmy Lai Chee Ying, HSBC and Citibank last month, warning the banks that if they attempt to manage Jimmy Lai's account, they may be convicted and sentenced up to 7-year imprisonment. John Lee said when he was responding to media's questions today (27th) that he has the responsibility to inform the banks of the possible legal ramifications if they try to handle the bank accounts of the persons who have allegedly violated The National Security Law
The Legislative Council passed the third reading of the Improving Electoral System Bill by a 40-2 vote. The pro-Beijing camp voted in favor of the bill, while Civic Passion lawmaker Cheng Chung-tai and medical sector lawmaker Pierre Chan opposed the bill

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