Apr 20 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts Expect a lower open after weakness in US

20 Apr

Futures indicate market to open lower by 27pts (-0.4%), RBA minutes due so expect caution ahead of those.  Beach Energy and Woodside Petroleum +VE as oil rose overnight. Iluka Resources Limited GS puts a buy on the stock. Gold names weak along with Afterpay and Appen as US tech sold down.
Nikkei futures opened +52pts and after rising initially have eased to +30pts expect a cautious open following the US with no major data to direct markets.
S Korea 
Expect markets to open flat and may see consolidation following the US moves overnight.
Market to open flat after yesterday's rally to a new high and saw rotation into non tech ( raw materials and shipping firms in focus) and old economy and financials; offsetting the decline in electronic.
Market to open lower following the US although the presence and action of ’Team China’ is key.
ADR’s indicate -78pts at 29,028 with weakness in Chinese Financials and ECommnerce. Expect initial weakness on the news Meituan plans a placement follows last weeks news about stock being moved to GS.
US Futures Opened Dow +35pts S&P +0.04% and NDX flat

ERI-C is holding a webinar later today 'Riding The Dragon: The Great China Bull / Bear Debate for Long Term Investors'
Guest Speakers: Andy Rothman, 'Bull' at Matthews Asia & Stewart Paterson 'Bear' at Capital Dialectics.
Let me know if you would be interested in joining.

DOW -0.36%, NDX -0.98%, S&P -0.53%, Russel 2K -1.36% 
Markets opened slightly lower DOW then traded sideways in the red all day. NDX had choppy start but then trended lower in the morning and sideways in the afternoon. The S&P followed a similar pattern but with less selling in the morning.
The Bitcoin sell off over the weekend prompted sell of Tesla -3%, Coinbase -2.6%
Premarket Coca Cola +0.6% beat and said demand back to pre pandemic levels.
United Airlines posted a $1.36 billion loss in the first quarter and will need a rebound in lucrative business and international travel before it returns to profitability. The loss reported Monday would have been even wider without federal payroll aid, but it was still slightly worse than expected. But the company said bookings were improving. It also intends to restart flights to Greece, Croatia and Iceland in July. Earnings in focus with no data released Monday.
NASA reported its first drone flight on Mars.
Banks JPMorgan Chase -0.4%, Citigroup -0.4% Wells Fargo +0.1%, Amex -1%
Work from home names: Facebook -1.3%, Apple +0.6%, Amazon -0.8%, Netflix +1.5%,  Disney +0.1%, Zoom Video -1.7%, Alphabet +0.3% and Microsoft -0.8%,
Tech NXP Semi -2.3%, Nvidia -3.5%, Micron -2.5%, AMD -1.3%, Skyworks -2.1%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -1.6%, Caterpillar -0.4%, Simon Property -0.5%, Kohl’s flat Nordstrom -0.8%, Gap -0.8%, United Airlines -1.6%, Carnival -0.5%, Wynn Resorts -0.8%, Chevron +0.3%, Exxon Mobil -0.3%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup +0.5% General Mills flat, JM Smucker +0.3%
USD was weaker vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +0.6% @ 56,133.22, VIX +6.4% @ 17.29, US T10 @ 1.61%
OIL Brent +0.42%, WTI +0.4% supported by dollar weakness but covid re-surgence in India limits upside.
Gold -0.3%, Silver -0.6%, Copper flat, Platinum +0.1%, Palladium +1.5%.
Redbook, API Crude Oil Stock Change
Earnings Johnson & Johnson, Travelers, Procter and Gamble, Netflix, Abbott Labs, CSX, Lockheed Martin, Intuitive Surgical, Tenet Healthcare, Philip Morris, Northern Trust, Fifth Third, Key Corp, Comerica

DAX -0.59%, CAC -0.15%, FTSE -0.28% 
Markets opened flat and the FTSE traded sideways in the green until around 1pm when it trended lower, until a small bounce into the close. CAC traded sideways all day. DAX traded lower initially then sideways in the red but sold down in the PM
Little data to drive markets but covid concerns and the ECB meeting this week in focus along with earnings.
Britain is the latest country to join a global race toward central bank digital currencies, CNBC reports. “We’re launching a new taskforce between the Treasury and the Bank of England to coordinate exploratory work on a potential central bank digital currency,” U.K. Finance Minister Rishi Sunak said at a fintech industry conference on Monday.
EUROZONE Current Account Feb €13.3B vs 5.6B Jan (F/cast was 19.1B)Construction Output Feb -5.8% YoY vs -2.6% Jan revised (F/cast was. -3.6%)
GERMANY Bundesbank Monthly Report
EUROZONE No data due
FRANCE No data due
UK Claimant Count Change, Employment Change, Average Earnings (Inc & Ex Bonus), Unemployment Rate.

JAPAN Nikkei futures opened +52pts and after rising initially have eased to +30pts expect a cautious open following the US with no major data to direct markets.  Yen currently 108.14
Data due 11:30am 
Tertiary Industry Index Feb. (Jan was -1.7%, F/cast is -0.1%)
Tokyo reported 405 new covid cases Monday,  Osaka expected to request another state of emergency declaration.
Japanese companies think the country will suffer a fourth round of coronavirus infections, with many bracing for a further blow to business, a Reuters monthly poll showed.
Japan on Monday tightened its rules on coronavirus test certificates needed to be submitted by all passengers upon arrival at Japanese airports, with those failing to meet required conditions to be denied entry into the country in principle.
Japan, the United States and Australia will work together to set up submarine communications cables in the Pacific region, reported The Yomiuri Shimbun, in a bid to counter China’s rapid expansion in the field of undersea cables. +VE
Renesas Electronics said Monday it was on track to restore full capacity by May after a plant fire, as manufacturers around the world battle to secure semiconductor supplies. +VE
Toyota said it will introduce 15 battery electric vehicle (BEV) models globally by 2025, expanding the automaker’s electric vehicle lineup to achieve carbon neutrality before 2050.  The company will increase its number of electric models to around 70 from currently offered 55, it said in a statement.  The new BEV model Toyota bZ series, which was unveiled at the 2021 Shanghai Auto Show on Monday, is aimed for China, the United States and Europe, the carmaker said.  +VE It also announced a shift in its climate change stance on Monday, saying it would review its lobbying and be more transparent on what steps it is taking as it faces increased activist and investor pressure. +VE
Nissan as expected showed off a redesigned version of its X-Trail model on Monday and announced a green car strategy for China at the Shanghai auto show.  The new X-Trail will be available in China this year. +VE
Softbank slight negative as UK Govt says it will review the Softbank’s sale of Arm to Nvida on security grounds saying it would put several chip makers under the control of a single player. -VE
Myanmar authorities detained a Japanese journalist in Yangon on Sunday evening, Japan's government said on Monday, adding that it was trying to seek his release.  BBC Burmese quoted a witness as saying freelance journalist Yuki Kitazumi was picked up from his home and taken into custody by troops on Sunday night.

Expect markets to open flat and may see consolidation following the US moves overnight.
No data due
KDCA reported  532 more COVID-19 cases, (vs 672 Sunday) including 512 local infections, below 600 for the first time in 6 days but noted fewer tests had been carried out.
The South Korean government said Monday that it will tighten up regulations to trace illegal cryptocurrency transactions and cases of fraud amid growing concerns over a speculative bubble in the virtual coin market.
Government on Monday said it had proposed a law to require its citizens to get official permission before using the internet to exchange digital material such as movies, music, scanned books, or artwork with anyone in North Korea. The revision, first outlined in January, comes after the South in December banned the launching of propaganda leaflets into the North.
South Korea will be able to require big power generation companies to generate up to 25 percent of electricity from renewable energy sources, starting from October this year, raising the previous maximum threshold of 10 percent.
Samsung Electronics is anticipated to finalize its investment plan for foundry expansion in the United States and South Korea, and make it official as early as next month, according to industry forecasts on Monday.  Slight +VE
Hyundai Motor Group’s Genesis brand unveiled the first electric powertrain variant of its luxury sedan G80 at the 2021 Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition on Monday.   During the motor show, Hyundai Motor and Kia, also presented their latest electric vehicles -- Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 and Kia’s EV6 -- putting emphasis on electric powertrains.   Taking part in the Chinese automotive event for the first time, Genesis unveiled the EV derivation of its flagship luxury sedan G80. The brand was recently launched in the country, on April 2. +VE
Battery makers LG Energy Solution, Samsung SDI and SK Innovation, may see weakness as the press highlights China’s 60% control over the cobalt market.
SK Telecom announced Monday that the company has introduced a 5G-based disinfection robot at a Severance Hospital branch in Yongin, Gyeonggi Province. The machine “Keemi” uses a real-time location system, through which it can find the location of missing patients and analyze patient density within the hospital.  It is fitted with with an ultraviolet disinfection system to remove bacteria and germs around the hospital as well. It is capable of disinfecting various harmful bacteria, according to a test conducted by Korea Conformity Laboratories. Slight +VE
Doosan Infracore Co. said Monday that it has signed a deal to provide 15,000 forklift engines to Linde China Forklift Truck Corp., a Chinese forklift maker.  +VE
Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering Co. (KSOE) said Monday that it has signed a 208 billion won ($185.8 million) deal to build two crude-oil carriers.  Under the deal signed with a European company, Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries Co., a unit of KSOE, will build and deliver the 300,000-ton ships from the fourth quarter of 2022, the company said. +VE
Oriental Brewery, has begun the sale of its newly revamped flagship beer All New Cass nationwide.  Following a ceremony at its Cheongju plant on Sunday, the beer -- bottled in clear glass -- will hit the shelves at convenience stores, supermarkets, restaurants and entertainment  venues sometime late this month, the company said.

Expect market to open flat after yesterday's rally to a new high and saw rotation into non tech ( raw materials and shipping firms in focus) and old economy and financials; offsetting the decline in electronic.
Data due after market 
Export Orders Mar (Feb was +48.5% YoY F/cast is +37%)
Central bank Governor Yang Chin-long yesterday said the bank had no intended to raise rates but declined to commit to an interest rate freeze for the next two years, unlike the bank’s major global peers, saying the bank has to factor in inflation risks and other economic data when setting policy.Yang’s remarks came as inflationary pressures build up around the world amid an improving global economy and continued monetary easing.
The New Taiwan dollar yesterday posted its biggest daily advance since December last year after a report by the US Department of the Treasury last week hinted that US President Joe Biden’s administration could exert greater pressure on Taiwan’s central bank to allow the local currency to appreciate.
Chinese yuan deposits held by local banks last month fell 1.95 percent from one month earlier to 241.63 billion yuan (US$2.87 billion) a four month low as local retail investors preferred equities over currency investments, the central bank said yesterday.
The combined first-year premiums (FYP) generated by local life insurers last month grew 28 percent to NT$80.91 billion (US$2.87 billion) from NT$63.15 billion a year earlier, fueled by sales of investment-linked insurance products, data compiled by the Life Insurance Association showed last week. +VE
Acer Inc yesterday said that it is planning to acquire a stake in touch controller designer FocalTech Systems Co  at a cost of up to NT$1.5 billion (US$53.18 million).  In a filing with the Taiwan Stock Exchange, Acer said that the NT$1.5 billion would be a long-term investment in FocalTech and the shares would be acquired by means of block trading, under which large numbers of equities are traded at an arranged price between two parties. +VE
Fulgent Sun Group  yesterday posted first-quarter net income of NT$325.49 million, or earnings per share of NT$1.75, down 8.1 percent year-on-year. The company, which also makes sports footwear, said sales in the first quarter totaled NT$3.42 billion, up 23.2 percent from NT$2.77 billion in the same period last year. Fulgent said its gross profit, operating profit and net profit in the first quarter all were the second-highest level in its history, while first-quarter sales hit the highest ever for the period. Fulgent said that sales for the next three quarters would likely be higher than the first quarter. +VE outlook

Expect market to open lower following the US although the presence and action of ’Team China’ is key.
Data due Loan Prime Rate 1yr and 5yr no change expected
Human Rights Watch said on Monday that China’s actions in Xinjiang could meet criteria for crimes against humanity, calling for a U.N. investigation into “widespread” abuses and for businesses to shun goods made in the region.
North Korea’s imports from China jumped in March amid growing speculation that Pyongyang may soon open its border and resume trade with its top ally, China.  North Korea’s shipments from China totaled $12.98 million in March -- a dramatic jump from February, when it logged $3,000 -- Chinese customs data released Sunday showed.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said on Monday he was prepared to send his military ships in the South China Sea to “stake a claim” over oil and mineral resources in the disputed part of the strategic waterway.
The European Union resolved on Monday to step up its influence in the Indo-Pacific region, using areas from security to health to protect its interests and counter China's rising power, although the bloc insists its strategy is not against Beijing.
China’s Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining on Monday cancelled an agreement to buy the Bibiani gold mine in Ghana, saying it had not received timely information from the seller about the termination of the mining lease.
China could see its number of births slide below 10 million annually in the next five years if the government does not quickly abolish its policy of limiting families to two children, an expert was quoted in domestic media as saying.  China's total population may also fall in a few years, Dong Yuzheng, director at the Guangdong Academy of Population Development, told Yicai, a Chinese financial news outlet.
Citigroup plans to expand its investment banking business in China and will soon apply to set up local underwriting, sales and trading and futures trading businesses by the end of June, a person with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters.
Chinese universities should produce inquisitive thinkers who are totally loyal to the Communist Party, says Xi Jinping. He says the education system must train the ‘builders and successors’ of socialism during a visit to Tsinghua University.  Xi says Communist Party needs to encourage scientific talent and innovation in its centenary year.
China’s former trade chief Long Yongtu says United States should work with China to merge the CPTPP trade agreement with the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.   At the Boao Forum for Asia on Monday, one expert says there is an opening for the United States to compete with China in Asia, because so many countries are wary of Beijing.

ADR’s -78pts at 29,028 with weakness in Chinese Financials and ECommnerce.  Expect initial weakness on the news Meituan plans a placement follows last weeks news about stock being moved to GS.  
No data due
Short Selling Monday 16.4% vs 13.4% Friday
Top Shorts
  Bud Apac (1876) 44%, Henderson Land (12) 41%, Meituan (3690) 34%, Bank Of China (3988) 32%, BankComm (3328) 27%, SHKP (16) 25%.
 HENGAN INT'L (01044.HK) announced the repurchase of 400,000 shares on 19 April at $51.35-51.8 each, involving $20.6406 million.

The government will require contract workers and non civil servants to take an oath or sign a declaration, with details to be announced in May, according to Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip Tak-kuen.   Workers hired after their retirement will also have to make a pledge to Hong Kong SAR and the Basic Law. However the arrangement does not apply to workers from subsidized organizations, including those from the health services, education and social welfare sectors.

MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) said it plans to place about 187 million class B shares at a placing price of HK$265-274 each, representing roughly 5.3-8.4% discount to the closing price today, according to its prospectus. The estimated fundraising approximates US$6.8-7.0 billion.  And issued US$3 billion worth of zero-coupon convertible bonds, reported Bloomberg. In other words, the company aimed to raise a total of roughly US$10 billion.  Follows the revelation last week about stock  being moved   GS and worth noting the stock was being heavily shorted yesterday.
CHINA GRAND PHARM (00512.HK) announced that the Group’s subsidiary Grand Medical Pty Ltd is developing a global innovative drug STC3141 for the field of severe infections, which has recently received approval for a phase IIa clinical trial in Belgium for the treatment of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).  STC3141 Phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of COVID-19 approved in Belgium will be a randomized open-arm study of 25 patients enrolled in at least 3 research centers, aiming to study and evaluate the safety and efficacy of STC3141 in the treatment of severe viral pneumonia caused by COVID-19 infection. +VE
SHANDONG XINHUA (00719.HK) announced appointment of Octal Capital as Independent Financial Adviser to advise the Listing Rules Independent Board Committee, the Code Independent Board Committee and the Independent Shareholders in relation to the Proposed A Shares Issue and the Whitewash Waiver.
Li Ning (2331) said retail sell-through percentage of Li-Ning point-of-sales, excluding Li-Ning Young, for the overall platform increased by the high-eighties on a year-on-year basis. In terms of channels, its offline channel registered growth in the low eighties. Its retail channel increased in low-nineties and its wholesale rose by low-eighties, and the e-commerce virtual stores business registered around 100 percent growth. +VE
Mainland-born "new Hongkongers" constituted nearly half of the buyers of the new homes worth between HK$50 million and HK$100 million in the first quarter, according to Midland Realty. In recent years, local media have used the term "new Hongkongers" to refer to people who came from other places and subsequently acquired permanent resident status in Hong Kong. The majority of those in that group are mainlanders. Mainland-born "new Hongkongers" also accounted for 11 percent of new home buyers in the primary market in the first quarter, up from 8.7 percent in the second quarter last year, according to Midland Realty.
WEIMOB INC (02013.HK) and TENCENT (00700.HK)'s Tencent Ads jointly unveiled the "Tencent - Weimob Plan 2.0" , reported Chinese media.  Both sides aim to help with corporate operation in private domain by integrating WEIMOB INC's omnichannel digital capabilities in digital marketing, system and operation, together with a full upgrade based on plan 1.0.
Huawei Deputy Chairman cum Rotating Chairman Hu Houkun (Ken Hu) disclosed at the Boao Forum For Asia that Huawei is cooperating with CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK), and NZP etc. in formulating the operation specification for 5G port facilities, Securities Times reported. Hu hoped that the specification could be launched by the year end.
CHINA TOWER (00788.HK)   announced key performance indicators for the first quarter of 2021 that net profit amounted to RMB1.694 billion, up 16.7% yearly.   As of 31 March, the numbers of tower sites and tower tenants grew to 2.027 million and 3.397 million.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) announced that the composite interest rate decreased by 1 basis point to 0.22% at the end of March 2021, from 0.23% at the end of February 2021, which mainly reflected a decrease in the weighted funding cost for deposits during the month.
The Urban Renewal Authority (URA) invites a total of 39 property developers to tender for the development of the Oak Street / Ivy Street Development Project in Tai Kok Tsui.  The URA will provide the relevant tender documents to the invited property developers, based on which they can submit tenders for the development. All tender submissions should reach the URA Headquarters at 26/F COSCO Tower, 183 Queen’s Road Central, by 12:00 noon on 20 May 2021 (Thursday).
China Mobile Hong Kong (CMHK) announced that the Company entered into a cooperation deal with Zhen Hua Engineering Company Limited to kick-start the "smart site" establishment and propel diversified 5G application. The smart site solutions aim to provide companies with smart and integrated products through IoT, spatial localization, mobile communication, cloud computing, big data and other technologies.
HKTV (01137.HK) announced the launch of EcoMart, its consumer-to-consumer (C2C) second-hand platform where VIP members can trade, exchange or transfer new or used items through a self-service revolving trading system on the free platform.

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