Oct 1 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts S Korea, Taiwan, China and HK closed


05 Oct

Oct 1 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts  S Korea, Taiwan, China and HK closed

Covid-19 Globally over 33.9m cases, 1.01m deaths
S Korea, Taiwan, China and Hong Kong closed for holidays.
Trading in Japan suspended due to hardware glitch.


DOW +1.2%, NDX +0.74%, S&P +0.83%, Russel 2K +0.2% As Trump offers $1.5tn in stimulus but warned that anything above $2tn would be a real problem. It would include $20bn for airlines to keep staff employed. Opinions over the impact of the first presidential debated varied.
DATA
MBA Mortgage Applications -4.8% vs 6.8% prior and 30yr Mortgage Rate vs 3.1% prior
ADP Employment Change Sept 749k vs 428k Aug (F/cast was 610k)
GDP Growth Rate Final Q2 -31.4% QoQ vs -5% prior (F/cast was -33%)
GDP Price Index Final Q2 QoQ -2.1% vs +1.7% prior (F/cast was -2.3%)
Corporate Profits Final Q2 -10.7% QoQ vs -11% revised from -12.4% prior
Core PCE Prices Final Q2 -0.8% QoQ vs +1.6% prior (F/cast was -1%)
PCE Prices Final Q2 -1.6% QoQ vs +1.3% (F/cast was -1.8%)
Chicago PMI Sept 62.4 vs 51.2 Aug (F/cast was 50.8)
Pending Home Sales Aug 24.2% YoY vs +15.5% Jul (F/cast was +10%)
Pending Home Sales Aug +8.8% MoM vs +5.9% Jul (F/cast was +4%)
EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change -1.98m vs -1.639m (Consensus was 1.569)
EIA Gasoline Stocks Change 0.683m vs -4.025m (Consensus was -1.083)
USD was weaker vs Yen & Euro on stimulus hopes. Bitcoin +0.7% @ 10,831.25, VIX @ 26.37,
US T10 @ 0.699% rising on th good economic data
OIL Brent +0.54%, WTI +0.5%
Gold +0.33%, Silver +1.62%, Copper +0.16%. Gold firm on stimulus hopes
AHEAD Challenger Job Cuts, Personal Spending & Income, Initial Claims, 4 week Ave Claims, Continuing Claims, PCE Price Index, Core PCE Price Index, Manufacturing PMI ISM Manufacturing Data (Prices, New Orders, Employment, PMI) Construction Spending, EIA Natural Gas Report.

DAX -0.51%, CAC -0.59%, FTSE -0.53% Markets opened lower and traded sideways. The first presidential debate was seen as more of an embarrassing brawl than potential presidential candidates debating. Covid concerns remained
DATA
GERMAN
Unemployment Rate Sept 6.3% vs 6.4% Aug (F/cast was +6.5%)
Retail Sales Aug +3.1% MoM vs -0.2% Jul revised (F/cast was +0.5%)
Retail Sales Aug +3.7% YoY vs +4.2% Jul (F/cast was +3.4%)
Import Prices Aug -4% YoY vs -4.6% Jul (F/cast was-3.8%)
Import Prices Aug +0.1% MoM vs +0.3% Jul (Consensus was 0)
FRENCH
Inflation Rate Prelim Sept +0.1% YoY vs +0.2% Aug (F/cast was +0.3% )
Inflation Rate Prelim Sept -0.5% vs -0.1% Aug (F/cast was -0.3%)
Household Consumption Aug +2.3% vs +0.5% Jul (F/cat was -0.3%)
PPI Aug +0.1% vs +0.4% Jul (F/cast was -0.2%)
UK
GDP Growth Rate Final Q2 -19.8% QoQ vs -2.5% prior revised (F/cast was -20.4%)
GDP Growth Rate Final Q2 -21.5% YoY vs -2.1% prior revised (F/cast was -21.7%)
Current Account Q2 GBP -2.8b vs -20.8b prior revised (F/cast was -0.6b)
Business Investment Final Q2 -26.5% YoY vs-0.5% prior revised (F/cast was -31.4%)
Business Investment Final Q2 -26.1% vs +1.1% prior (F/cast was -31.3%)
Nationwide Housing Prices Sept +5% vs +3.7% Aug (F/cast was +4.7%)
Nationwide Housing Prices Sept +0.9% vs 2% Aug (F/cast was +0.7%)
AHEAD
EUROZONE Manufacturing PMI, Unemployment Rate, PPI
GERMANY Manufacturing PMI
FRANCE Manufacturing PMI, New Car Registrations
UK Manufacturing PMI

JAPAN Expect Nikkei to open higher as futures rise. Yen was 105.50 But trading halted due to a technical issue.
Data out

Tankan Index Slight improvement from Q2
Large Manufacturers Q3 -27 vs -34 prior (F/cast was -26)
Small Manufacturers Q3 -44 vs -45 prior (F/cast was -36)
Large All Industry Capex Q3 +1.4% vs +3.2% prior (F/cast was +1.5%)
Large Manufacturing Outlook Q3 -17 vs -27 prior (F/cast was -20)
Non-Manufacturing Outlook Q3 -11 vs -14 prior (F/cast was -12)
Non-Manufacturing Index Q3 -12 vs -17 prior (F/cast was -10)
Manufacturing PMI Sept 47.7 vs 47.2 Aug (F/cast was 47.3)
Tokyo Metropolitan Government on Thursday reported 235 new cases of covid, up 41 from Wednesday. The number is the result of 6,443 tests conducted on Sept 28.
PM Suga is likely to hold off calling a snap election this year as the coronavirus pandemic continues to ravage the economy, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Thursday. +VE
A Japanese appeal court on Wednesday ruled that the state and Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings (TEPCO) could have taken steps to prevent the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster and are therefore liable for compensation claims. -VE

SOUTH KOREA Market Closed
Data out
Balance of Trade Sept $8.88b vs 3.84b Aug (F/cast was 9.5b)
Exports Sept +7.7% YoY vs -10.1% Aug revised (Consensus was +2%)
Imports Sept +1.1% YoY vs -15.8% Aug revised (Consensus was -4.9%)
Exports and imports grew for the first time in seven months and beat expectations as global demand picked up in Q3. For the first nine months of 2020, the surplus narrowed modestly to USD 28.17 billion from USD 28.35 billion in the same period of 2019.
77 new COVID-19 cases were reported on Thursday, going back to two digits after a day’s spurt to 113, with disease prevention authorities on alert as Koreans travel around the country over Chuseok.


TAIWAN Market Closed
No Data due


CHINA Market Closed
No data due
Chilean health authorities said on Wednesday they have approved the start of clinical trials for coronavirus vaccines under development by China's Sinovac and Johnson & Johnson pharmaceutical unit Janssen.


HONG KONG Market Closed ADR’s were +194pts @ 23,653
No data due but after market Wednesday

Retail Sales Aug -13.4% YoY vs -23.9% Jul (F/cast was -11%)
Again an improvement but not as good as had been forecast.

SHORT SALES Wednesday 17.7% vs 21.4% Tuesday 
Top Shorts Ping An (2318) 39%, China Res Land (1109) 36%, Bank of China (3988) 34%, HSBC (5) 33%, Henderson Land (12) 32%, Hang Seng Bank (11) 29%, ICBC (1398) 28%, CKI (1038) 28%, BoC HK(2388) 28%, CCB (939) 26%, Country Garden (2007) 25%.

HONG KONG Centre for Health Protection said there were 12 additional COVID-19 cases in Hong Kong today (vs 8 Wednesday) 

WATCH
CRRC (01766.HK) announced that it had considered and approved the resolutions in relation to the proposed issue of A Shares
and listing on the Science and Technology Board of CRRC TIMES ELEC (03898.HK), an indirect non-wholly-owned subsidiary, on 30 September 2020. The number of shares to be issued will not exceed 241 million A Shares.
NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) announced the annual results ended 30 June 2020. Underlying profit amounted to HK$6.589 billion, down 25.25% yearly. Net profit -93.96% annually to HK$1.096 billion, with EPS of HK$0.43. A final dividend of HK$1.48 was declared. Full year dividend reached HK$2.04.
NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) and MTR CORPORATION (00066.HK) have named their joint project atop Tai Wai Station as "The Pavilia Farm". Sales brochures will be uploaded as soon as today, and the price list next week.
Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) last posted at 176.74, up 0.08% WoW. Snapping the two-week decline,
CCL Mass last stood at 179.69, down 0.06% weekly.
CCL (small-and-medium units) last reported at 177.24, down 0.03% weekly. CCL (large units) last tracked at 174.12, up 0.74% weekly.


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