June 5 Things to know before Trading Asia on Monday 7 June

05 Jun

This and previous notes can be found at SubStack too.
Check out  ERI-C.com ; for research and  trading analysis
Expectations as of the news Saturday morning. G7 is reported to be close to an agreement on global corporate taxation. Russell index in focus ahead of announcing index changes which could impact AMC and other meme stocks.
 At this stage I would expect most markets to open higher after the US Jobs data. China likely to be lower ahead of Trade Data. Australia Expect market to open higher. Pre market there is the Services Index and after the open; Job Advertisments. Oil and Gold +VE.
Japan Nikkei expect the market to opened higher following the caution on Friday ahead of the US jobs data.
S Korea Expect markets to open higher as the US job numbers eases inflation/tightening fears
Taiwan Market to open higher after good GDP data, the good US jobs data and after heavy rain due to Tropical Storm Choi-Wan.
China Market to open flat ahead of the Trade Data and this week we expect New Yuan Loans, Outstanding Loans, Total Social Financing and M2 Money Supply.  The wild card remains ‘Team China’
HK ADR’s +126pts @ 29,044 with all ADR’s in the green except BoC and CKHutch. Sentiment cautious ahead of China trade data and the loans data likely later in the week.
German Factory orders and UK house price data on the block.
US light on data Monday, with just Consumer Credit change but Trade data Tuesday, and later Wholesale inventories Wednesday, Core Inflation Thursday and Michigan Prelim data Friday. Inflation still the key consideration with Core CPI Thursday the focus. A few earnings still; key Gamestop, Campbell Soup & Chewy.

DOW +0.52%, NDX +1.47%, S&P +0.88%, Russel 2K +0.31%
Markets opened higher; Dow and S&P worked slowly higher through the day. Nasdaq had an intial rally but then worked slowly higher. The jobs report was a solid 559k a good number after the weakness seen in April (upwardly revised) but short of forecasts. Plus the unemployment rate dropped to 5.8% beating estimates. Really a goldilocks number; strong but not so strong that the Fed is forced to consider a dramatic change in policy. Seen as positive for Tech growth names and value stocks too.
Meme names were more muted AMC -6.7% but +80% on the week, Blackberry -12.7% up 37% on the week.
Earnings out from DocuSign +20%, Five Below +7%, Lululemon +3.8%; which beat and the stocks rallied. Crowdstrike -4.2% beat but stock closed just off the day low.
Banks weak in the AM session but rallied PM JPMorgan Chase +0.2%, Citigroup -0.2% Wells Fargo +1.1%, Amex +0.3%
Work from home names: Facebook +1.3%, Apple +1.9%, Amazon +0.6%, Netflix +1.1%,  Disney +0.5%, Zoom Video +5.3% (news Ark Innovation ETF bought 96k shares), Alphabet +2% and Microsoft +2.1%,
Tech NXP Semi +0.6%, Nvidia +3.6%, Micron +2.1%, AMD +1.6%, Skyworks +1.9%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -0.2%, Caterpillar +0.1% having opened strongly, Simon Property -1.3%, Kohl’s flat, Nordstrom -1.7%, Gap -0.1%, United Airlines +1.4%, Carnival -0.4%, Wynn Resorts -0.7%, Chevron +0.8%, Exxon Mobil +0.4%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup +0.5% General Mills +0.4%,  JM Smucker +1.4%

Non Farm Payrolls May 599k vs 278k Apr revised up (F/cast was 610k)
Unemployment Rate May 5.8% vs 6.1% Apr (F/cast was 6%)
Average Weekly Hours May 34.9 vs 34.9 Apr revised (F/cast was 35)
Average Hourly Earnings May +0.5% MoM vs +0.7% Apr (F/cast was +0.2%)
Average Hourly Earnings May +2% YoY vs +0.4% Apr revised (F/cast was +1.4%)
Participation Rate May 61.6% vs 61.7% Apr (F/cast was 61.8%)
Factory Orders May -0.6% MoM vs +1.4% Apr revised (F/cast was -0.3%)
Factory Orders Ex Trans May +0.5% vs +2.3% Apr revised (F/cast was +0.4%)
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 359 vs 359 prior
Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 456 vs 457 prior
Total Vehicle Sales May 17m vs 18.8m Apr revisedUSD was weaker vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin -5% @ 36,650, VIX -8.9% @ 16.42, US T10 @ 1.557% as tightening expectations recede after jobs numbers
OIL Brent +0.8% @ $71.89, WTI +1.2% @ 69.62 on expectations of OPEC+ production discipline and weaker US inventories.
Gold +1.1%, Silver +1.6%, Copper +1.2% Platinum +0.47%, Palladium +0.65%. Gold stronger, rebounding from a two week low as Non-Farm Payrolls miss F/casts.
NY Fed Treasury Purchases, Consumer Credit Change

DAX +0.39%, CAC +0.12%, FTSE +0.07%
Markets opened flat after disappointing Construction PMI data and weak retail sales numbers. Markets traded sideways ahead of the US jobs numbers before ticking higher into the close.
Airlines weak as UK removed Portugal from its ‘green list’ of travel destinations; IAG -0.9%, WizzAir -3.3%, Ryanair -1.1%
Construction PMI May 50.3 vs 50.1 Apr (F/cast was 54.4)
Retail Sales Apr -3.1% MoM vs +3.3% Mar (F/cast was -1%)
 Retail Sales Apr +23.9% YoY vs +13.1% Mar (F/cast was +21%)
Construction PMI May 44.5 vs 46.2 Apr (F/cast was 54.5)
 New Car Registrations May 37.2% YoY vs 90% Apr (F/cast was 51%)
Construction PMI May 51.1 vs 49.8 Apr (F/cast was 54.2)
Retail Sales Apr -6% MoM vs -0.8% Mar revised (F/cast was +1.2%)
 Retail Sales Apr +42.1% YoY vs 24.9% Mar (F/cast was +34.8%)
New Car Sales May 674.1% YoY vs 3,176.6% Apr (F/cast was 690%)
Construction PMI May 64.2 vs 61.6 Apr (F/cast was 62.3)
GERMANY Factory Orders
FRANCE No data
UK Halifax House Price Index, BBA Mortgage Rate.

Nikkei expect the market to opened higher following the caution on Friday ahead of the US jobs data.
Yen closed 109.49
 Data due

Pre Market Foreign Exchange Reserves (Apr was $1378.5b)
Later Prelims of Leading Economic Index and Coincident Index.
Tokyo Friday reported 472 new covid cases (-36DoD). The seven-day moving average of new cases in the capital was 455, or 78.4% of the previous seven-day period figure of 580. Nationwide the total was 2,595 with cases in Osaka dropping to 189 +VE
Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Friday central banks must allow for differences when setting standards for climate risk, as the necessary responses to climate change could vary from region to region. Kuroda also said any policy action on climate change by central banks must be "carefully assessed" against their monetary policy mandates, such as achieving price stability.
Japanese Olympics Committee board member Kaori Yamaguchi said on Friday her nation had been “cornered” into pressing ahead with the 2020 Games despite public opposition during the coronavirus pandemic. I think it will be a decision the Government will regret when it comes to the election; it is rumoured PM Suga will call a snap election post Olympics. I also think the Olympics themselves have lost credibility. Where sport becomes more important that lives smacks not of Olympian vitues but the taint of commercial money. As Yamaguchi said “What will these Olympics be for and for whom? The Games have already lost meaning and are being held just for the sake of them.” -VE
Honda Motor Co (7267.T) said on Friday it will end production at its powertrain unit factory in Japan's Tochigi prefecture north of Tokyo in 2025, to adapt to environmental changes surrounding the global auto industry. Local procurement of powertrain unit parts has grown with the expansion of overseas production, leading to a decline in supply from Japan, the carmaker said in a statement. It also announced China new vehicle sales dropped 4.1% YoY to 128,700 units in May, marking the first YoY fall in ten months. The impact of production decline has been coming into view given global semiconductor scarcity. -VE
Nissan decided to postpone the launch of its new electric vehicle SUV Ariya due to the global pandemic and worldwide chip shortage. Last year, Nissan announced its plan for launching Ariya in Japan from mid-2021, but the rollout of the new model will now be pushed back to this winter, said executive vice president Asako Hoshino, with sales projected to commence in the U.S. and Europe two months after that. -VE
The Japanese government is expected to list digital industries like semiconductor manufacture as national development project in the new strategic development bill meeting, indicating future focus on improving local production capability and fostering a new generation of manufacture technology within the country by attracting foreign companies to set up factories in Japan, reported Kyodo News.
Four China Coast Guard vessels were confirmed to be in Japan’s contiguous zones off the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture on Friday, making it a record 112 consecutive days that such ships were in the zones, surpassing by a day the record set from April to August last year. As the Japan Coast Guard steps up vigilance, China’s provocations have been intensifying.
The vessels were sailing in the contiguous zones of the Senkaku Islands, including those around Taisho and Minamikojima islands, on Friday. -VE
Japan births hit new record low in 2020; with just 840,832 births, according to data released by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare. The number of marriages, 525,490, also hit a low not seen since the end of World War II, while the number of divorces was 193,251, down 15,245 from 2019.

Expect markets to open higher as the US job numbers eases inflation/tightening fears and increased vaccination roll-out.
No data due
KDCA reported 744 new covid cases (vs 695 Friday) as cluster infections continue to arise. Health authorities said Friday that the country is expected to achieve its goal of inoculating over 13 million people, or a quarter of the total population, within this month, earlier than expected, given a smooth supply of vaccines. +VE for sentiment
The United States is shipping one million doses of Johnson & Johnson's one-shot COVID-19 vaccine to South Korea, a U.S. State Department spokesman said on Friday, one day after President Joe Biden laid out his plan to share vaccine doses globally.
South Korea injected $23.5 billion, in Q1, +51% YoY for purchasing semiconductor equipment data from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International, showed Friday. Under the lead of top market players such as Samsung Electronics and SK hynix, South Korea accounted for around 31 percent of the total with $7.3 billion, reclaiming its previous top spot. Worth noting that China was next investing $5.9bn and Taiwan $5.7 billion +VE
Samsung Electronics is expected to enjoy price increases of solid-state drives in the forthcoming months, due to robust demand from data center providers, according to the latest report from TrendForce. Contract prices of enterprise SSDs for Q3 this year are expected to jump 10-15% QoQ. The drivers being service providers in the North American region have recently been observed to expand their storage capacities. Plus the increase in the production of computer processors by companies such as Intel and Advanced Micro Devices.
Samsung Electronics said Friday that it has sent out official invitations to global media and business partners across the world for the upcoming online event to present its network business to a global audience. Entitled “Unleashing the Full Power of 5G,” the show slated for June 22 is the first public event to showcase Samsung’s network solutions.

TAIWAN Expect market to open higher after good GDP data, the good US jobs data and after heavy rain due to Tropical Storm Choi-Wan.
No data due but after market Friday
GDP Growth Rate Q1 +8.92% YoY vs 5.09% Q4 (F/cast was 8.16%)
Foreign Reserves May $542.978b vs 541.11b Apr (F/cast was 551b)
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) Friday raised its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth this year to 5.46 percent, up 0.82 percentage points from its projection in February as the global economic scene grew more favorable for exports and private investment. The covid outbreak is much worse than last year, but would not affect manufacturing activity or slow the export-focused economy, if it can be brought under control by next quarter. Exports, the main growth driver at more than 60 percent of GDP, are expected to expand 20.4 percent this year, more than doubling the preceding projection, as a spate of incidents around the world allowed local firms across sectors to get order transfers, the DGBAS said. +VE
Japan delivered to Taiwan 1.24 million doses of AstraZeneca PLC's coronavirus vaccine on Friday for free, in a gesture that will more than double the amount of shots the island has received to date. +VE
Medigen Vaccine Biologics Corp’s share price Friday plunged by the daily limit of 10 percent for the fifth consecutive day, closing at NT$230.5 vs NT$350 Monday; amid questions over locally produced COVID-19 vaccines. -VE
King Yuan Electronics Co Friday said it would shut down its factories for 48 hours to be thoroughly disinfected amid concern over COVID-19 infections linked to its manufacturing campus in Miaoli County. As of yesterday, 67 King Yuan employees, mostly migrant workers from the Philippines, had tested positive for the disease after a large-scale rapid screening program was launched for the company’s 7,300 workers.

CHINA Expect market to open flat with caution ahead of the Trade Data with also because this week we expect New Yuan Loans, Outstanding Loans, Total Social Financing and M2 Money Supply. Worth noting that the trade data was ahead of the covid outbreak.  The wild card remains ‘Team China’
Data due Monday after the open
Balance of Trade May (Apr was $42.85b F/cast is $55b)
Exports May (Apr was 32.3% YoY F/cast is +31%)
Imports May (Apr was 43.1% YoY F/cast is +50%)
After market Foreign Exchange Reserves May (Apr was $3.198T, F/cast is $3.2T) key will be whether they are diversifying away from the USD.
China has approved emergency use of Sinovac Biotech's (SVA.O) COVID-19 vaccine in people aged between three and 17, its chairman Yin Weidong told state TV late on Friday.
Dr. Anthony Fauci has called on China to release the medical records of nine people whose ailments might provide vital clues into whether COVID-19 first emerged as the result of a lab leak, the Financial Times reported on Thursday. "I would like to see the medical records of the three people who are reported to have got sick in 2019. Did they really get sick, and if so, what did they get sick with?" the report quoted Fauci as saying about three of the nine. A spokesman for China's foreign ministry, Wang Wenbin, declined to comment directly on whether China would release the records of the nine but firmly denied that the laboratory was linked to the outbreak of COVID-19.
Hungary’s decision to block a European Union statement criticising China’s Hong Kong policy was condemned on Friday by a senior Germany official, who said the bloc’s foreign policy was being undermined. “Hungary again blocked an EU statement on Hong Kong. Three weeks ago it was on Middle East. Common foreign and security policy cannot work on the basis of a blocking policy,” German Foreign Office State Secretary Miguel Berger wrote on Twitter.
China is pushing China Huarong Asset Management Co to sell non-core assets (units including a bank, a trust, an investment firm and a consumer finance firm),two people involved in the revamp told Reuters, while considering offering an implicit guarantee of the liabilities of the debt-laden bad-debt manager. The plan, one source said, envisions the authorities informally backing $20 billion of dollar debt coming due this year for the sprawling company, one of the nation’s four giant state-owned asset managers. News of the plan lifted dollar bonds issued by Huarong Finance, a subsidiary of the company, to near three-week highs. Key will be the execution of the plan but short term +VE.
China’s manufacturers braced for drop in orders as coronavirus outbreak snarls-up southern shipping hubs Severe congestion at Shenzhen’s Yantian port is spreading to Nansha port in Guangzhou following the discovery of several coronavirus cases in southern China. Adding to the impact of increased shipping costs. Yantian and Nansha are among world’s busiest container ports, but Yantian is only operating at one-seventh of its usual level. The impact unlikely to show in Monday’s trade data but show up in June’s.
Human rights activist barred from leaving China to care for ill daughter Tang Jitian says he was stopped from boarding a flight from Fuzhou to Tokyo on the grounds he would ‘endanger national security’. His 25-year-old daughter has tuberculosis meningitis and is in a coma in hospital. Likely to raise concerns about Hong Kong’s vaguely worded National Security Law.
Canada opposition leader calls on Justin Trudeau to push to move Beijing’s Winter Olympics out of China He also called on Boris Johnson the UK PM to make a similar move.
Regarding U.S. president Biden has signing the executive order to expand the blacklist for Chinese companies with investment ban to 59 companies, over concerns of their potential link to the Chinese military. China expressed its resolute opposition to such measures as Wang Wenbin, spokesperson for MoFA, condemned the U.S. for abusing its national powers to suppress and restrict Chinese companies. Wang, during a press conference, has said subsequently that China will take any necessary measures to ensure and protect the legitimate rights of Chinese companies.

HONG KONG  ADR’s +126pts @ 29,044 with all ADR’s in the green except BoC and CKHutch. Sentiment cautious ahead of China trade data and the loans data likely later in the week.
Data due after market
Foreign Exchange Reserves.

ShortSellingFriday 13.6% vs 17.6% Thursday 
Top Shorts Wharf REIC (1997) 33%, Ali Health (241) 33%, Bank Comm (3328) 31%, Baba (9988) 29%, Henderson Land (12) 28%, Country Garden (2007) 26%, Petrochina (857) 25%.

National Security
Tiananmen Sq was commemorated although without the traditional Victoria Park vigel. Still people were wearing black and lighting candles, flashing their phone lights or attending special church services. Cuaseway Bay and Mong Kok were hte main centres. Some chanted slogans too.
China’s foreign ministry slams the West, accusing it of ‘clumsy political shows’ as US consulate and EU office in city lit candles on thier premises.
Chow Hang-tung, 36, a June 4 vigil leader, and a 20-year-old man, are accused of using their social media accounts to advertise or publicise a prohibited public meeting. Press reports that as of 10pm Friday 6 people had been arrested. It underlines that whilst on the surface all may appear peaceful there is still considerable support for the pro-democracy movement.

Hong Kong’s first local untraceable case involving variant found in Britain sparks fears over border loophole. 
The infection of student, 17, found with B.1.1.7 variant by university research team raises possibility of local transmission already occurring as patient has no recent travel history. -VE for sentiment.

LINK REIT (00823.HK) announced that it agreed to acquire 100% interest in Happy Valley Shopping Mall in Guangzhou
and its related loans for a total of RMB3.2047 billion, which represents a discount of 4.3% to the appraised property value of RMB3.35 billion as at 24 May 2021.
ANGELALIGN (06699.HK), on the second day of IPO, reported over $220.13 billion of margin subscription as at around 6 pm. Based on the public fundraising amount of $291 million, the IPO was over-subscribed by more than 755 times.
Kwok Chi Chung, President of the Macau Association of Gaming and Entertainment Promoters, expressed reservations about the Government's full-year GGR forecast of MOP130 billion, despite surging visitor arrivals in the city during the May Day holiday.
TENCENT (00700.HK) president Martin Lau has sold 250,000 and 50,000 TENCENT shares on 2 and 3 June respectively, at a respective average price per share of $629.7726 and $624.465, cashing in around $189 million, according to HKEX disclosure of interests notices.
HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) plans to split Peter Wong's job of managing the bank's Asian business, Bloomberg citing sources. The lender intends to appoint David Liao, a protege of Wong, and HSBC India CEO Surendra Rosha as co-heads of the Asian arm. Liao will reportedly be in charge of Greater China, while Rosha will take helm of the rest of the region.
CHINA OVERSEAS (00688.HK) announced that for the first five months of 2021, the accumulated contracted property sales of the Group amounted to RMB155.414 billion and the accumulated corresponding GFA sold was 7.6757 million square meters, with year-on-year increase of 35.8% and 22.4% respectively.
SHIMAO GROUP (00813.HK) announced that, the group’s contracted sales amounted to RMB29.05 billion, up 31.93% YoY and the group’s contracted sold area amounted to 1.63 million sq.m.. The average selling price was RMB17,823 per sq.m.. The group’s aggregated contracted sales for the five months ended 31 May 2021 amounted to approximately RMB121.795 billion and the Group’s aggregated contracted sold area amounted to 6.8695 million sq.m., recording year-on-year increase of 52% and 50% respectively. The average selling price for the five months ended 31 May 2021 was RMB17,730 per sq.m..
SUNSHINE 100 (02608.HK) announced that, in May 2021, the group achieved unaudited contracted sales of approximately RMB660 million, corresponding to a contracted sales area of approximately 60,100 sq.m..  For the five months ended 31 May 2021, the Group achieved unaudited contracted sales of RMB1.811 billion, up 2.72% YoY corresponding to a contracted sales area of approximately 171,600 sq.m.
CASH FIN SER GP (00510.HK) announced that during the period from 3 to 4 June 2021, the Group has acquired an aggregate of 41,600 MEITUAN-W (03690.HK) Shares through the open market at an aggregate consideration of approximately HK$12.9 million. The board holds positive views towards the financial performance and future prospect of Meituan. The company considers that the acquisition is an opportunity to acquire attractive investment, which will enhance investment return for the group.
MAS expects further increasing capital inflow into fintech companies this year as investment of this nature has already rose rapidly from approximately USD20 million in 2014 to USD1.1 billion last year, said Sopnendu Mohanty, its chief fintech officer, during a Bloomberg interview.  Mohanty continued saying that, Singapore is in the process of building an appropriate environment for fintech companies to realize their business opportunities, encouraging the companies to translate their creativity into profiting value.
Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) last tracked at 185.16, up 0.36% weekly to a 91-week high. 
CCL Mass inched up 0.70% weekly to 187.55.
CCL (mid-and-small units) climbed 0.65% weekly to 185.40.
The research department of Centaline Property, mentioned the uptick in home price indices for four main regions of Hong Kong, which was first seen in 25 weeks.

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