June 29 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts Expect a muted open and cautious trading.

29 Jun

This and previous notes can be found at Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
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Asia expect a cautious open

Australia Futures -14pts with sentiment weak as Perth goes into lockdown following Sydney and Darwin; Govt under pressure over vaccination roll out. Oil names weak ahead of OPEC+ meeting.  Tech +VE likely to be good for Afterpay and Altium along with Gold names.  Woolies downgraded by  GS -VE
Japan Nikkei futures -42pts and dropping after employment data and pre market retail sales data still to come andkey to the market direction.  Tech still likely to be +VE following the US.
S Korea Expect markets to open flat Futures -0.85pt;  focus on Tech names expected to be +VE following the US.
Taiwan Expect market to open higher with Tech back in focus following the US moves and adding to the gains seen Monday  drivers from old economy  leaders Shipping & Steel. Sentiment +VE ahead of the resumption of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) mechanism tomorrow.
China Market to open flat with muted ahead of July 1 celebrations.
HK ADR’s +93pts @ 29,361 with weakness in Chinese Financials sentiment cautious ahead of July 1 holiday.
US Futures 
Opened Dow and S&P flat, NDX -0.1%

DOW -0.44%, NDX +0.98%, S&P +0.23%, Russel 2K -0.52%
Dow trended lower from the open but ticked higher into the close but transport and reflation trades waning.  But upside muted as the Delta+ covid variant worries some, although others suggests it means an  improved outlook for work from home and interest rates being kept low.  
S&P traded sideways around flat until lunch climbed higher to a new high.
NDX opened higher and trended sideways to lunch but then traded higher after Faceboook won its anti-trust lawsuit.  

Banks some strong after market as they anounced buyback & dividend schemes etc. Morgan Stanley lead -0.8%  (after hours +2.6%), JPMorgan Chase to continue existing +0.2% (after hours -0.3%), Citigroup flat (after hours rallied but closed -0.8%) Wells Fargo -1.3% (after hours +0.4%), Amex -2.8%
Work from home names: Facebook +4.2%, Apple +1.3%, Amazon +1.3%, Netflix +1.1%,  Disney -1%, Zoom Video +4.4%, Alphabet flat and Microsoft +1.4%,
Tech NXP Semi +1%, Nvidia +5%, Micron +1.7%, AMD +1.7%, Skyworks +2.2%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -3.4%, Caterpillar flat off  initial lows, Simon Property -0.7%, Kohl’s -4%, Nordstrom -1.6%, Gap -3.9%, United Airlines -2.7%, Carnival -7%, Wynn Resorts -2.7%, Chevron -3.1%, Exxon Mobil -2.5%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup +0.2% General Mills +1.5%, JM Smucker +1.1%

Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index Jun 31.1 vs 34.9 May (F/cast was 31)
USD was slightly stronger vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +5.8% @ 34,718.80, VIX +0.9% @ 15.76, US T10 @ 1.482% easing back below 1.5%
OIL Brent -0.9%, WTI -1% a little bit of caution ahead of OPEC+ meeting.
Gold unch, Silver +0.1%, Copper % Platinum -1.4%, Palladium +1.6%.
Redbook, Case-Shiller Home Price, House Price Index, Consumer Confidence, NY Fed Treasuries TIPS Purchases, API Crude Oil Stock Change.

DAX -0.34%, CAC -0.98%, FTSE -0.88%
Opened mixed; FTSE drifted lower as UK announced the biggest increase in ne covid cases since end of January.  DAX saw an initial uptick in the open then trading sideways around flat.  CAC trended lower  recovered to flat and then sold down into the close
Concerns over the Covid Delta+ variant and Portugal imposing quarantine on unvaccinated travellers which hit travel/leisure stocks and the weak China data out Sunday was another overhang.
Burberry -8.5% as CEO resigns to join Ferragamo. Daimler -2.3% to spin off truck unit. NN Group -0.4% on Sunday said that it had offered to acquire some of MetLife’s businesses in Europe, though the size of the offer and the specific businesses targeted remain
German Import Prices May +1.7% MoM vs +1.4% Apr (F/cast was +1.2%)
German Import Prices May +11.8% YoY vs +10.3% Apr (F/cast was 11.1%)
EurozoneConsumer Confidence, Sentiment (Economic, Industrial and Services), Consumer Inflation Expectations
Germany Inflation Rate
France Unemployment Rate, Consumer Confidence
UK Nationwide Housing Prices, Car Production, Mortgage Approvals, Mortgage Lending, BoE Consumer Credit, Net Lending to Individuals

Nikkei futures -42pts and dropping after employment data and pre market retail sales data still to come andkey to the market direction. Tech still likely to be +VE following the US.
Yen currently 110.61
Data due pre market
Unemployment May +3% vs +2.8% Apr (F/cast was +2.8%)
Jobs/Applications Ratio May 1.09 vs 1.09 Apr (F/cast was 1.09)
Due pre market
Retail Sales May (Apr was +12% YoY F/cast is +8%)
Retail Sales May (Apr was -4.5% MoM F/cast is +1.9%)
Tokyo reported 317 new covid cases (-69 DoD),  Nationwide total was 1,002.
Bank of Japan policymakers hoped that accelerating coronavirus vaccinations would prop up the economy, but saw any inflationary pressures as subdued given the fragile recovery, a summary of their debate at a June 17-18 meeting released on Monday showed. Slight -VE
Deputy defense minister on Monday warned of the growing threat posed by Chinese and Russian collaboration and said it was necessary to “wake up” to Beijing’s pressure on Taiwan and protect the island “as a democratic country.”  Questions the  1970’s ‘one China’ policy.  This will upset China.
Honda will build its own electric vehicles. General Motors will build Honda's first two fully electric vehicles for North America, the it plans to manufacture its own later this decade.  It says they're developing their own EV architecture,  and after two GM-made EVs go on sale in 2024, Honda will start building  its own. +VE
Softbank Group Corp is slashing jobs at its global robotics business and has stopped producing its Pepper robot, according to sources and documents reviewed by Reuters, as the conglomerate downgrades its industry ambitions.  Production of the humanoid Pepper, touted as the first robot with “a heart,” was stopped last year, three sources familiar with the matter and the documents said.  Slight  -VE

Expect markets to open flat Futures -0.85pt; focus on Tech names expected to be +VE following the US.
No data due
KDCA reported 267 new covid cases on Monday (incl 73 Delta covid cases) 71 cases were imported.
The National Intelligence Service is conducting a review of cyber terrorism preparedness on the country’s energy infrastructures including electricity, gas and water supply networks, the agency announced Monday. +VE long term
Posco Engineering & Construction will start pre-sales of its premium The Sharp brand apartments in Gwangyang, South Jeolla Province, in July, the company said Monday. +VE
Samsung Electronics Co. paid a total of 11.1 trillion won ($9.8 billion) in taxes and dues last year, up 14.4 percent from a year ago, its report showed Monday, with the majority going to its homeland. +VE
A controlling stake in SsangYong Motor has officially been put up for auction as the financially ailing company undergoes court receivership, the sale’s lead manager said Monday. -VE
KakaoBank, the country’s second internet-only lender, said on Monday that it would raise up to 2.5 trillion won ($2.2 million) in its initial public offering.  It will offer a total of 65.45 million new shares at an indicative range between 33,000 won and 39,000 won per share through its upcoming debut on August 5, the IPO application filed with the Korea Exchange showed.

Expect market to open higher with Tech back in focus following the US moves and adding to the gains seen Monday drivers from old economy leaders Shipping & Steel. Sentiment +VE ahead of the resumption of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA) mechanism tomorrow.
No data due.
Consumer confidence this month has slipped to an 11-month low as  people expressed less interest in purchasing durable goods amid a  lingering COVID-19 outbreak and movement restrictions, although optimism  about stock investments increased, a survey released yesterday by  National Central University found.  -VE Retail
CECC announced covid cases dropped to 60, a one month low.
It also announced Govt tightening up arrival and testing procedures +VE
After market 4.7 earthquake hit Hualin.
Taiwan Mobile has accumulated more than 800,000 5G  subscribers in the first year of its 5G launch, representing a  penetration rate of 14 percent, the company said yesterday. Subscriptions to its 5G services increased faster than it had  expected, the company said, pushing up its penetration rate higher than  local peers’, even though it had acquired less of the 5G spectrum than  major rivals.  +VE

Expect market to open higher following the US but upside limited as concerns over debt/credit issues.
No data due
US House passes Science Foundation Bill -VE for sentiment towards China.
Australia has filed a formal complaint to the World Trade Organization over China's duties on bottled wine imports, the WTO confirmed on Monday.
PBoC says economy showing more stability it says it will step up its coordination with global economic policies and prevent “external shocks,” the committee concluded in its quarterly meeting, according to a statement released Monday. The committee reiterated that China’s prudent monetary policy will be targeted and reasonable, and the central bank will keep liquidity reasonably ample.
Chinese retailers cut back sharply on borrowing in the second quarter as revenue and profit growth slowed, China Beige Book International said in its latest quarterly report.  Fewer retailers accessed credit than at any time in the history of its survey, according to CBBI, a provider of independent economic data. Previous surveys highlighted high rejection rates for retailers amid a weak recovery in consumer spending. -VE

ADR’s ADR’s +93pts @ 29,361 with weakness in Chinese Financials sentiment cautious ahead of July 1 holiday.
No data due but after market Monday
Balance of Trade May HK$-25.5B vs -31.8B Apr (F/cast was -33B)
Exports May +24% YoY vs 24.4% Apr
Imports May +26.5% YoY vs 25.2% Apr

Short Selling Monday 16.0% vs 16.5% Friday
Top Shorts 
CLP(2) 45%, Hengan (1044) 39%, Bud APAC (1876) 38%, Petrochina (857) 37%, Ping An (2318) 35%, Country Garden (2007) 34%, Longfor (960) 33%, AAC Tech (2018) 33%, Anta (2020) 29%, Sunny Optical (2382) 28%, MTRC (66) 27%, Galaxy (27) 27%, WH Group (288) 26%, Bank Comm (3328) 25%, Meituan (3690) 25%

National Security Law
Police have arrested a 37-year-old man for putting a "Liberate Hong Kong" sticker outside his own Shau Kei Wan flat.
They arrested him for committing an act with seditious intention, after receiving a report that he put up the stickers in violation of national security law on the metal gate of his flat in Yiu Tung Estate.
RTHK has kicked media veteran Allan Au Ka-lun out of its current affairs radio program Open Line Open View for which he served as a host for 11 years. Besides hosting, Au is also a commentator known for his pro-democracy  views as well as a professional consultant at Chinese University's  journalism school. He was previously a producer, editor and news host at  TVB.

Government to ban flights from UK from Thursday -VE Cathay Pac. 
CHINA GAS HOLD (00384.HK) announced annual result ended March 2021. The net profit amounted to HK$10.479 billion, up 14% yearly. EPS was HK$2.01. A final dividend of HK45 cents per share was declared. Together with the interim dividend of HK10 cents per share, the total dividend amounts to HK55 cents per share.

L'OCCITANE (00973.HK) announced annual result for the year ended 31 March 2021.
The Group delivered its highest ever net profit of EUR155 million, up 32.9% yearly. EPS was EUR0.105.
The Board proposes a final dividend of EUR0.03687 per share, equivalent to a payout ratio of 35%. It has initiated the global store consolidation plan and been negotiating with landlords on the rent since last year, said Vice-Chairman Andre Hoffmann at the press conference. At the moment, the group is maintaining its store size in Hong Kong. Seeing economic revitalization in Hong Kong, Hoffmann envisioned growth potential in L'OCCITANE's sales volume going ahead. However, it would be hard to tell the exact timing as recovery takes time.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) (00388.HK) announced that it is pleased to welcome the first group of participants to join its pilot programme for HKEX Synapse (Synapse), HKEX’s new Stock Connect settlement acceleration platform. The programme will help to further enhance HKEX Synapse’s design and features, ahead of its launch, targeted for 2022. In November 2020, HKEX announced its plans to launch Synapse, which uses DAML smart contracts to help institutional investors participating in Northbound Stock Connect to better manage their post-trade operations, in particular to meet the tight settlement cycle of the Mainland China’s securities market.

Huawei reiterated that the company has no intention to become a shareholder or investor of any automobile companies and that such decision is made after careful consideration.  
Huawei stressed that automobile manufacture differs greatly from that of mobile phones and the company is not equipped with the ability to produce vehicles at the moment.

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