June 16 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts Expect cautious trading data from Japan & China but focus on FOMC tonight.

16 Jun

This and previous notes can be found at Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
Check out ERI-C.com for  interesting research and trading analysis

Asia expected to open lower and see cautious trading ahead of data from Japan, China and the US FOMC

Australia Market to opens lower -12pts  but downside limited by the rising oil price and Iron ore prices.  Gold was weak.  UK  Trade deal +VE for sentiment.
Lending Index May (Apr was +0.2% F/cast is +0.3%)
Japan Nikkei futures opened -25pts but have eased to -13pts  (Chicago -30pts drifting lower)  Expect caution ahead of Trade data and the FOMC announcement.
S Korea Futures indicate +1pts markets to trade cautiously ahead of the US FOMC.  OIL names +VE as prices continue to rise.
Taiwan Market to open flat with caution ahead of the FOMC and increased tension with China
China Market to open lower with concerns about PBoC tightening, International relations, FOMC and China’s data
HK ADR’s -27pts at 28,611 but expect marke to dip lower on the open after Tuesdays  -204pt fall will prompt some margin call selling.  Chinese Banks and ECommerce weak but OIL names +VE.  Wider caution ahead of the FOMC meeting and China data due after market.  
US Futures 
Opened Dow +17pts, S&P +0.06% and NDX +0.12% Focus on FOMC press conference. Other data due MBA Mortgage Applications and 30 yr Mortgage Rate, Import Prices, Export Prices, Housing Starts, Building Permits, EIA Oil Report.

DOW -0.27%, NDX -0.71%, S&P -0.2%, Russel 2K %
Markets opened flat but trended lower as data missed. A worry was the drop in Retail Sales which could signal that consumers are experiencing inflation and that could translate to wage inflation. For the FOMC the rest of the weak data bolsters their case with respect to not needing to talk about tapering.
Laggards were Tech, Real Estate and Materials. Market was supported by Energy names.
New York lifted covid restrictions as over 70% of adults have had at least one jab.
Banks JPMorgan Chase -1.5%, Citigroup -1.5%, Wells Fargo +0.7%, Amex +1.5%
Work from home names: Facebook flat, Apple -0.6%, Amazon flat, Netflix -1.6%,  Disney -1.3%, Zoom Video -1.9%, Alphabet -0.8% and Microsoft -0.6%,
Tech NXP Semi -0.3%,  Micron -2.1%, AMD -1.3%, Skyworks -1.3%,  Nvidia -1.3% may not be able to meet a March 2022 deadline for closing  its $40 billion acquisition of British chip technology firm Arm Ltd due  to European regulators’ reluctance to consider the case until after the  summer holidays, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.
Re-opening stocks  Boeing +0.6%, Caterpillar +0.2%, Simon Property -1.5%, Kohl’s +0.9%, Nordstrom -2.3%, Gap -0.3%, United Airlines -0.8%, Carnival -0.5%, Wynn Resorts +0.4%, Chevron +2.2%, Exxon Mobil +3.6%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup -1% General Mills -0.8%, JM Smucker -1%

Retail Sales May -1.3% MoM vs +0.9% Apr revised (F/cast was -0.3%)
Retail Sales May +28.1% YoY vs +53.4% Apr revised (F/cast was +55%)
Retail Sales Ex Auto May -0.7% vs 0% Apr revised (F/cast was +0.2%)
PPI May +0.8% MoM vs +0.6% Apr (F/cast was +0.7%)
PPI May +6.6% YoY vs +6.2% Apr (F/cast was +6.4%)
Core PPI May +0.7% vs +0.7% Apr (F/cast was +0.7%)
Core PPI May +4.8% YoY vs +4.1% Apr (F/cast was +4.9%)
NY Empire Stake Manufacturing Index Jun 17.4 vs 24.3 May F/cast was 23)
Redbook +16.4% YoY vs 14.5% prior
Industrial Production May +16.3% YoY vs +17.65 Apr revised (F/cast was +21%)
Industrial Production May +0.8% vs +0.1% Apr revised (F/cast was +0.6%)
Manufacturing Production May +18.3% YoY vs 22.7% Apr revised (F/cast was +28%)
Manufacturing Production May +0.9% vs -0.1% Apr revised (F/cast was +0.3%)
Capacity Utilisation May 75.2% vs 74.6% Apr revised (F/cast was 75%)
Business Inventories Apr -0.2% vs +0.2% Mar revised (F/cast was -0.1%)
NAHB Housing Market Index Jun 81 vs 83 May (F/cast was 83)
52 week Bill Auction 0.07% vs 0.055% prior
42 Day Bill Auction 0.015% vs 0.01% prior
20 yr Bond Auction 2.12% vs 2.144% prior
Foreign Bond Investment Apr $49.6B vs 118.9B Mar
Net Long Term Tic Flows Apr $100.7B vs 262.2B Mar
Overall Net Capital Flows Apr $101.2B vs 146.4B Mar
After market
API Crude Oil Stock Change -8.537m vs -2.108M prior (consensus was -3m)
USD was slightly stronger vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +1.1% @ 40,067.88, VIX +3.8% @ 17.02, US T10 @ 1.489%
OIL Brent +1.9%, WTI +2.26% new highs and futures moving higher after the API number.
Gold -0.3%, Silver -0.89%, Copper -4.22% Platinum -0.98%, Palladium +0.3%.
MBA Mortgage Applications and 30 yr Mortgage Rate, Import Prices, Export Prices, Housing Starts, Building Permits, EIA Oil Report, FOMC Rate Decision, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Press Conference.
Earnings: Lennar, The Honest Company

DAX +0.36%, CAC +0.35%, FTSE +0.36%
Market opened higher and trading sideways after the pre market data was largely in line. Eurozone Trade data better than f/cast but the big +VE was that March was revised up significantly.
UK and Australia agree trade deal and US/Europe agree a truce over aircraft. US data largely missed which seems to have been seen as +VE for the FOMC to maintain its current course.
Leaders were Chemicals and Insurance
Laggards were basic resources.
Atlantia +3.5% said to be considering a 2 billion euro ($2.4 billion) share buyback and 600 million euro dividend payout next year, following the agreed sale of motorway unit Autostrade.
Thyssenkrupp -7%.
Balance of Trade Apr €15.8B vs €22.3B Mar revised from €15.8B (F/cast was €14.4B)
Inflation Rate May +2.5% YoY vs +2% Apr (F/cast was +2.5%)
Inflation Rate May +0.5% MoM vs +0.7% Apr (F/cast was +0.5%)
Inflation Rate May +1.4% YoY vs +1.2% Apr (F/cast was +1.4%)
Inflation Rate May +0.3% MoM vs +0.1% Apr (F/cast was+0.3% )
Claimant Count May -92.6k vs -55.8k Apr revised (F/cast was -62k)
Employment Change Mar 113k vs 83k Feb revised (F/cast was 145k)
Unemployment Rate Apr 4.7% vs 4.8% Mar (F/cast was 4.7%)
Average Earnings inc Bonus Apr +5.6% vs +4.3% Mar revised (F/cast was +4.7%)
Average Earnings ex Bonus Apr +5.6% vs +4.6% Mar (F/cast was +5.1%)
EUROZONE Labour Cost Index, Wage Growth.
No data due  
No data due  
Inflation Rate, Core Inflation Rate, PPI Core Output, PPI output, PPI Input, Retail Price Index,

Nikkei futures opened -25pts but have eased to -13pts  (Chicago -30pts drifting lower)  Expect caution ahead of Trade data and the FOMC announcement.
Yen currently 110.04
Data due pre market
Balance of Trade May (Apr was ¥255.3B (F/cast is ¥-78B)
Exports May (Apr was 38% YoY; Consensus is 51.3%)
Imports May (Apr was +12.8% YoY; Consensus is 26.6%)
Machinery Orders Apr (Mar was -2% YoY; F/cast was +7.6%)
Machinery Orders Apr (Mar was +3.7% MoM; F/cast was +2.5%)
Tokyo reported 337 new covid cases Tuesday (+128 DoD) -VE
Japan’s requirement of domestic clinical trials for COVID-19 vaccines cost it precious time in inoculating its population, vaccine programme  chief Taro Kono said on Tuesday.  Slight -VE
Daiichi Sankyo Co said on Tuesday it was halting development of an existing drug for the treatment of COVID-19.  They started in March started a clinical trial in Japan of an inhaled form of nafamostat mesylate with COVID-19 patients. The company said in a statement it was discontinuing the trial without citing a reason. The Nikkei newspaper reported that there were safety concerns. -VE
Japan will send a million doses of COVID-19 vaccine to Vietnam, Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Tuesday, as the southeast Asian nation steps up vaccine procurement to fight a more stubborn wave of infections. Slight +VE
Trade minister Hiroshi Kajiyama said on Tuesday he was not planning to order up a probe into allegations made by an independent investigation that his ministry (METI) helped Toshiba Corp (6502.T) lean on foreign shareholders.  He said it was normal for the government to deal with individual companies when matters of national security are at stake. "We merely implemented policies that were natural for METI," he told a regular post-cabinet news conference.  -VE of international investor sentiment.
A series of system failures that hit Japanese mega-bank Mizuho Bank earlier this year, including many of its automated teller machines, were due to poor operation and management rather than system defects, a third-party panel concluded Tuesday.
The panel consisting of lawyers and system management experts said in a report that human errors such as in the placement of technology-related staff and the company culture of hesitating to speak up during contingencies to avoid liability issues caused the problem -VE.
After tapering, BOJ must weigh exit from ETF holdings: former c.banker Sakurai says;  interesting interview with Reuters

Futures indicate +1pts markets to trade cautiously ahead of the US FOMC.  OIL names +VE as prices continue to rise.
No data due
KDCA reported 374 new covid cases (-25 DoD) a second day below 400 +VE
Korea reached its COVID-19 vaccine target for the first half of the year on Tuesday, with 13 million adults inoculated with at least one dose, +VE
Military began annual drills on Tuesday around a set of islands also claimed by Japan, days after planned talks between the two countries’ leaders were called off amid a spat over an Olympics map.  Seoul and Tokyo have been at odds over the sovereignty of the islets called Dokdo in South Korea and Takeshima in Japan, which lie about halfway between the neighbours in the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea. -VE
SK Telecom said Tuesday it has launched the world’s first keycard applied with both quantum technology and biometric identification technology.  Together with Switzerland-based quantum safety solutions firm ID Quantique and a local biometric identification startup Octatco, SKT co-developed the “EzQuant” keycard equipped with a quantum random number generator.+VE
Samsung Electronics Co. on Tuesday released a new multi-chip package (MCP) memory product for use in 5G smartphones as the South Korean tech giant tries to better target the fast-growing handset market.  The world's largest memory chip producer said it has begun mass-producing low-power double data rate 5 (LPDDR5) universal flash storage (UFS) MCP that integrates high-performance DRAM and NAND flash memory chips in a single compact package.  +VE
Samsung Electronics Co. is likely to unveil its new foldable smartphone in August, industry insiders said Tuesday, amid its push to popularize the foldable category. +VE
LG Electronics Inc. said Tuesday one of its senior researchers will head a working group in a North American mobile technology alliance for 6G technology development. The Next G Alliance was launched by the US-based Alliance for  Telecommunications Industry Solutions (ATIS) last October to beef up  mobile technology leadership in 6G.  +VE
Financially troubled SsangYong Motor Co. said Tuesday it will launch its first electric vehicle (EV) in Europe later this year as it seeks to speed up its sales process and survive in the changing business environment. Slight +VE
As South Korea is gearing up to restrictively allow free travel on the back of vaccination progress, duty free shop operators here have set to reorganizing their offline services in anticipation of business normalization, +VE Lotte Duty Free, Shinsegae Duty Free and Hyundai Department Store Duty Free

Expect market to open flat with caution ahead of the FOMC and increased tension with China
No data due

China conducts air exercises near Taiwan with 28 Aircraft in response to the G7, Nato and a number of countries signalling support for Taiwan. Fighters and nuclear-capable bombers, entered Taiwan's air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Tuesday, the island's government said, the  largest reported incursion to date. Comes after US announced a carrier group was operating in the South China Sea.  -VE
The nominee to be the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia said on Tuesday Washington should develop its relationship with Taiwan in every sector.  It came hours after China’s largest reported incursion to date into the island’s air defense identification zone +VE.
Local start-ups would not be left behind in the government’s Stimulus 4.0 COVID-19 relief package,
as the Small and Medium Enterprise Administration has set up a special office for them, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday. +VE
Orders and profit margin at local manufacturers are under pressure as a COVID-19 outbreak is helping to push raw material prices and shipping rates to unbearable levels,
a Chinese National Federation of Industries  survey released yesterday showed. -VE
Kim Forest Enterprise Co, which focuses on molecular testing, yesterday reported that revenue last month doubled from a year earlier to a record NT$54.04 million (US$1.95 million) as domestic demand for COVID-19 testing rose amid an outbreak in Taiwan. +VE
Automobile and truck tire maker Federal Corp yesterday said that it has shut a factory in Taoyuan’s Jhongli District, as it has lost substantial orders following a steep anti-dumping tariff imposed by the US. -VE
Synopsys Inc, a US-based electronic design automation solutions provider, yesterday said that it has signed up more than 20 of its clients for the latest device made using the most recent advanced process developed by TSMC.  The DesignWare IP solution was made using TSMC’s advanced 5 nanometer  process, its latest technology, which the semiconductor giant launched  in the second quarter of last year, Synopsys said. +VE
China Steel Corp said that it would not be raising prices for some products next month, ending 12 consecutive months of increases.
“There is a discrepancy between China Steel’s prices and international prices, but in consideration of price stability, we have decided not to adjust upward monthly-priced products,” the company said in a statement. Slight -VE
The production value of Taiwan’s motorcycles and motorcycle spare parts in the first quarter of this year continued to grow, after hitting record highs in 2019 and last year, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday. +VE
Solar paste maker Giga Solar Materials Corp  yesterday said its board has approved the sale of 10 million shares to a strategic investor through a private placement at NT$124.4 per share. The firm said in a regulatory filing that it aims to raise NT$1.24 billion and plans to use the funds to develop materials for electric vehicle batteries. Hon Hai Precision Industry Co plans to buy 8 million shares through its subsidiary, Hyield Venture Capital Co  +VE
Makalot Industrial Co yesterday reported a pre-tax profit of  NT$129.89 million for last month, up 17.69 percent year-on-year from  NT$110.37 million, but down 48.46 percent month-on-month from NT$252  million. In the first five months of this year, pre-tax profit surged  54.09 percent year-on-year to NT$1.21 billion, Makalot said in a  regulatory filing. That translated into pre-tax earnings of NT$5.24 per  share, up from NT$3.57 a year earlier.  +VE
Tong Yang Industry Co yesterday reported NT$10.71 million in pre-tax profit for last month, despite foreign exchange losses of NT$25.91 million. Last month’s figure was up 609 percent from a year earlier. The firm attributed the growth to increasing demand from US and European clients after economies reopened from COVID-19 lockdowns. During the first five months, pre-tax profit rose 29 percent annually to NT$354 million. Excluding the impact of foreign exchange, pre-tax profit would have risen 51 percent annually, Tong Yang said +VE

Expect market to open lower with concerns about PBoC tightening, International relations, FOMC and China’s data
Data due after market

NBS Press Conference
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) May (Apr was+19.9% F/cast is 16.8%)
Industrial Production May (Apr was +9.8% YoY, F/cast is +8.5%)
Retail Sales May (Apr was +17.7% YoY, F/cast is +14.5%)
Unemployment Rate May (Apr was +5.1% F/cast is +5%)
Guangzhou reports 1 new case but official says pandemic battle is at ‘critical stage’  Megacity must stay vigilant to avoid a resurgence of infections, health commission says.  Three new areas have been locked down and dozens of other hotspots are still under quarantine.  It has recorded 147 infections, including seven asymptomatic, since the latest outbreak  began on May 21. Cases have also been detected elsewhere in Guangdong province. Despite the relatively low number, Guangzhou Health Commission spokeswoman Chen Bin said the city must remain vigilant to avoid a resurgence of cases.-VE
China’s mission to the European Union urged NATO on Tuesday to stop exaggerating the “China threat theory” after the group’s leaders warned that the country presented “systemic challenges”.
NATO leaders on Monday had taken a forceful stance towards Beijing in a communique at United States President Joe Biden’s first summit with the alliance. "China's stated ambitions and assertive behaviour present systemic challenges to the rules-based international order and to areas relevant to alliance security," NATO leaders had said -VE
The Chinese navy is sailing its new destroyers in the South China Sea as its shipbuilding spree  continues, state media reported.  The Nanning, a new type of 052D guided missile destroyer made its public debut in a four-day real combat training exercise in the South China Sea after it entered service with the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), the PLA’s official website said.
Indonesia to buy 8 Italian frigates and hike defence spending as China tensions rise.   Jakarta is planning a massive boost in defence spending, with a leaked document suggesting a budget of US$124 billion over five years – three times the previous level. The need to modernise fleet has been highlighted by sinking of the submarine KRI Nanggala and increasing Chinese activity near the Natuna Islands, experts say.  -VE for sentiment.
Malaysia has granted conditional approval for emergency use to the single dose COVID-19 vaccines manufactured by China's CanSino Biologics and U.S. drugmaker Johnson & Johnson, the government said on Tuesday.
Australia's biggest exporting state on Tuesday urged Canberra to stop antagonising China, the country's top trade partner, in remarks that came amid escalating criticism of Beijing led by the United States, Australia's main ally.
"This isn't about kowtowing to other countries and giving in," Western Australian Premier Mark McGowan said at Australia's biggest oil and gas industry conference, being held in Perth. "There needs to be a national reset in that relationship."
Despite a packed lineup of titles, China's box office during the three-day Dragon Boat Festival holiday that ended on Monday raked in just 465 million yuan (HK$563.97 million), well below pre-pandemic levels.  The figures came in comparison with 785 million yuan and 912 million yuan generated during the same holidays in 2019 and 2018, respectively, as shown by data from box office tracker Maoyan. -VE
FT reports China has approved record amounts of investment to flow out of the country through an official scheme as authorities liberalise the local financial system against a backdrop of a rallying renminbi.  A cumulative $147bn of approvals have been added to the nation’s qualified domestic institutional investor scheme, which allows investors to access assets outside mainland China through banks and other institutions.

ADR’s -27pts at 28,611 but expect marke to dip lower on the open after Tuesdays  -204pt fall will prompt some margin call selling.  Chinese Banks and ECommerce weak but OIL names +VE.  Wider caution ahead of the FOMC meeting and China data due after market.  
No data due but 
after market Tuesday 
Industrial Production
Q1 +2.6% YoY vs -6% Q4 (F/cast was +1.5%)

ANGELALIGN (06699.HK), whose shares debut
today in the grey they closed more than 110% higher as compared with its initial  offering price of HK$173 apiece, which is the top end of the indicative  price range.  Angelalign Technology raised HK$2.72 billion from the public sale.

Short Selling  Tuesday 14.3% vs 14% Friday
Top Shorts 
Sunny Optical (2382) +31%, Ping An (2318) 31%, Hang Seng Bank (11) 30%, Country Garden (2007) 29%, Hengan (1044) 28%, Petrochina (857) 25%

Police ordered crowds to disperse as more people gathered outside Pacific Place in Admiralty
to commemorate protester Leung Ling-kit, who fell to his death outside the mall on this day two years ago.   Despite the national security law the spirit of the protests remains.

ALIBABA suffers data loss but doesnt say how many clients affected -VE.
HUARONG faces MSCI index removal as its shares remain suspended for over 50 days -VE
China Evergrande (3333) fell yesterday after Caixin's WeNews reported that Liaoning Province local government asked the property developer to pare its stake in Shengjing Bank (2066) to dilute Evergrande's stake
. Authorities in the northeastern Liaoning held discussions with China Evergrande to inject state capital into Shengjing Bank to dilute Evergrande's stake, according to a report by WeNews. Evergrande is the biggest shareholder of the bank headquartered in Liaoning, which held a 36.4 percent stake. No agreement has been reached yet, the report said, without specifying the reason.  China's Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission said it would curb a key source of financing for developers to control risk -VE.
SINOPEC SSC (01033.HK) announced that the company received the letter regarding the results of the implementation of the reduction of shareholding from CITIC Corporation.
From 22 April 2021 to 15 June 2021, CITIC Corporation has reduced in aggregate 190 million shares of the company by way of centralized bidding, accounting for 1% of the total share capital of the company. After the change in equity interests, the shareholding in the company of CITIC Corporation will be reduced from 5.45% to 4.45% -VE.

Hong Kong Tourism Board announced that the provisional figures of visitors arriving in Hong Kong in May dropped 34.8% year-over-year to 5,305.  
The provisional figures for visitors arriving in Hong Kong in the first 5 months in 2021 amounted to 27,500, down 99.2% year-over-year. Additionally, the “Spend-to-Redeem Free Tours” organized by the HKTB is releasing the second batch of about 60 itineraries. Starting from tomorrow (16 Jun), the public can register directly with participating tour operators.

With steadier consumption and night-time dining in Hong Kong since April, CAFE DE CORAL H (00341.HK) has seen recovery in quick service and casual dining sales, 
said CEO Peter Lo Tak-shing at a press conference. Given average meal price fall of $0.5-37.5 last year, Lo saw no headroom for CAFE DE CORAL H's meal price hike in the future. He also announced it has decided to set up 11 shops in Hong Kong and 17 in China this year. On another note, the group's CFO Mike Lim found the temporary rental concession offered by certain landlords in the past fiscal year conducive to CAFE DE CORAL H's operation. However, the shop rents will return to the current levels following a low single-digit fall in the first year of short-term tenancies +VE.

Secretary for the Civil Service Patrick Nip visited SHK PPT (00016.HK)'s Wan Chai headquarters today. 
During the visit, Nip and SHK PPT Chairman and Managing Director Raymond Kwok inspected the inoculation of Covid-19 vaccine to staff members through the Government's outreach vaccination service. The outreach vaccination service team had administered Comirnaty jabs to around 200 SHK PPT employees today.

ZA ONLINE (06060.HK) announced that the aggregate gross written premiums for the first five months of 2021
were approximately RMB7.725 billion, up around 44.42% YoY.

Louis Pong, founder and chairman of LF Catering, expressed his confidence in possible growth for the catering industry,
even amid the threat of the pandemic, during the interview, as he revealed that the group's business performance has already returned to 70-80% of that before the pandemic. Pong added that the company has been jointly developing a touchless system with BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK), which enables customers to order and pay without physical contact with the staff. BOC Credit Card suggested that as of this May, BoC Bill has recorded over 50,000 registrations from business users, up 1.7x year-over-year. The BoC Bill feature offers auditing functions and enables businesses to keep track of their transaction numbers, so as to minimize workload and increase operating efficiency.

MCC (01618.HK) (601618.SH) announced that the value of newly signed contracts of the Company 
amounted to RMB468.54 billion for the first five months of 2021, representing an increase of 45% from the same period of last year +VE.

VAU Residence, a Ho Man Tin residential project under Vanke Hong Kong, unveiled the second price list for 17 units measuring 209-388 sq.ft. each today (15th).  
Based on the maximum discount of 16%, the sales prices of the project range $5.506-9.462 million +VE.

CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) announced that the accumulated premium income of the company for the period from 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2021 
was about RMB386.4 billion, up approximately 4.49% year-over-year.

Responding to reports questioning radiation leakage in the Taishan Nuclear Plant, MoFA guaranteed that plant is operating safely and that it meets all relevant technical requirements and there is no anomaly observed in terms of radiation level in the surroundings of the nuclear plant.  
China values safety greatly regarding nuclear power and there has been no incident where nuclear plant operation in China endangers surrounding area and public health in the past, said Zhao Lijian, spokesperson of MoFA, during a press conference.

All 2021 deliverable orders of the Zeekr 001, the first model under GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)'s EV brand Zeekr, have been sold out 
since the pre-order launch, as Chinese media learnt from Geely Holding President and Zeekr CEO An Conghui. Zeekr is consolidating group resources from around the world to guarantee the production capacity and supply of Zeekr 001 cars under the new norm of global car component supply tightness, while ensuring the delivery will begin in October, added An.

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