Aug 13 Asian Marco Initial Thoughts +VE start but limited upside


13 Aug

This and previous notes can be found at Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
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Asia Summary

Australia Futures indicate market to open +29pts; Oil weak, Gold edged higher,  results and earnings in focus.
Data due New Home Sales,
Japan Nikkei local futures opened -25pts Chicago Futures +5pts and Osaka +90pts.  Another big day for earnings with 359 companies due to report a lot  of whom are small caps. Also Mini SQ on the open skewing the flow, it is also Obon holiday meaning domestic accounts likely to be quieter.
S Korea Expect markets to open lower key will be whether Foreigners continue to sell Tech or whether we see bargain hunting ahead of the weekend.  Earnings still in focus
Taiwan Expect market to open flat; local earnings continue to be +VE and covid under control.
China Expect market to open lower on covid concerns and debt concerns continue to linger with Evergrande’s talks failing.  
HK ADR’s -120pts at 26,396 broadbased weakness with earnings in focus. Evergrande weak as talks breakdown.  Press reports record 89,000 people departing HK with a record amounts being withdrawn from MPF accounts.  
US Futures 
Opened flat Dow +20pts, S&P and NDX flat

DOW 0.04%, NDX +0.35%, S&P +0.3%, Russel 2K -0.28%
Markets opened around flat and worked slowly better through the day to close at new highs.  Healthcare and Tech lead on roatation. Laggards were Energy, Industrials and Materials. Initial claims came in slightly light and PPI was stronger than expected.
 Banks JPMorgan Chase +0.4%, Citigroup -0.6% Wells Fargo +1%, Amex -1.3%
Work from home names: Facebook +0.8%, Apple +2.1%, Amazon +0.4%, Netflix -0.3%,  Disney +0.7% but rallied +5.3% after market on good results , Zoom Video +1.2%, Alphabet +0.7% and Microsoft +1%,
Tech NXP Semi -1.8%, Nvidia +1.1%, Micron -6.4% (Broker d/grade), AMD -1.1%, Skyworks -0.8%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -0.6%, Caterpillar -0.6%, Simon Property +0.3%, Kohl’s -1.3%, Nordstrom -2.1%, Gap -1.3%, United Airlines -2%, Carnival -2.6%, Wynn Resorts -0.7%, Chevron -0.2%, Exxon Mobil -0.2%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup -0.6% General Mills -0.2%, JM Smucker +0.5%
DATA
PPI Jul +1% MoM vs 1% Jun (F/cast was +0.7%)
PPI Jul +7.8% YoY vs +7.3% Jun (F/cast was +7.5%)
Initial Claims 375k vs 387k prior revised (F/cast was 365k)
4 week Average Claims 396.25k vs 394.5k prior revised (F/cast was 393.25k)
Continuing Claims 2.866m vs 2.98m (F/cast was 2.85m)
Core PPI Jul +1% MoM vs 1% Jun (F/cast was +0.6%)
Core PPI Jul +6.2% YoY vs +5.6% Jun (F/cast was +5.8%)
EIA Natural Gas Report 49 Bcf vs 13 Bcf prior (Consensus was 49Bcf)
WASDE Report.
USD was firmer vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin -4.6% @ 44,210.00, VIX -2.9% @ 15.6, US T10 @ 1.361%
OIL Brent -0.41%, WTI -0.49% as US calls for more supply and IEA reports lowers demand for the rest of 2021.
Gold -0.01%, Silver +0.03%, Copper -0.1% Platinum +0.04%, Palladium -0.03%. Gold holds above $1,750 as talk of an early taper ease.
AHEAD Export and Import Prices, Michigan Prelim Data (Consumer Senitment, 5yr Inflation Expectations, Comsumers Expectation, Inflation Expectations, Current Conditions) Baker Hughes Rig Count.

DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.36%, FTSE -0.37%
Markets opened flat FTSE trading around flat, CAC and DAX trading slightly better. IEA oil report cut its demand expectations; UK GDP stronger than expected but still below pre-pandemic levels.
Earnings from Zurich Insurance, Delivery Hero and RWE on Thursday.
Deliveroo +8.9% after German rival Delivery Hero’s stake was revealed earlier this week. But Delivery Hero -7.6% after reporting results
Aegon +7.3% after beating second-quarter profit expectations
Rio Tinto -5.5% as they traded ex-dividend.
DATA
Eurozone
 
Industrial Production Jun +9.7% YoY vs +20.6% May revised (F/cast was +10.9%)
Industrial Production Jun -0.3% MoM vs -1.1% May revised (F/cast was 0%)
France
IEA oil market report; lowered demand outlook
UK
Balance of Trade Jun £-2.5B vs £-0.2B May revised (F/cast was £-2.2B)
Business Investment Q2 +2.4% QoQ vs -10.7% Q1 (F/cast was +10.5%)
Business Investment Q2 +9.7% YoY vs -16.9% Q1 (F/cast was +32%)
GDP Growth Rate Pre Q2 +22.2% YoY vs -6.1% Q1 (F/cast was +22.5%)
GDP Growth Rate Pre Q2 +4.8% QoQ vs -1.6% Q1 (F/cast was +5.1%)
Construction Output Jun +30.0% YoY vs 57.6% May revised (F/cast was +36%)
Industrial Production Jun -0.7% MoM vs +0.6% May revised (F/cast was +0.5%)
Industrial Production Jun +8.3% YoY vs +20.7% May revised (F/cast was +10.8%)
Manufacturing Production Jun +13.9% YoY vs +28.2% May revised (F/cast was +14%)
GDP 3 Month Ave Jun +4.8% vs +3.6% May (F/cast was +5.1%)
GDP Jun +1% MoM vs +0.6% May revised (F/cast was +0.8%)
GDP Jun +15.2% YoY vs +24.5% May revised (F/cast was +15.1%)
Goods Trade Balance Jun £-11.988B vs £-9.601B May revised (F/cast was £-10.2B
Construction Orders Q2 +135.2% YoY vs -13.6% Q1 (revised) (F/cast was +37%)N
NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker Jul +3.9% vs +4.8% Jun (F/cast was +3.8%)
AHEAD
EUROZONE Balance of Trade
GERMANY
Wholesale Prices
FRANCE Unemployment, Inflation Rate  
UK  No data due

JAPAN
Nikkei local futures opened -25pts Chicago Futures +5pts and Osaka +90pts.  Another big day for earnings with 359 companies due to report a lot  of whom are small caps. Also Mini SQ on the open skewing the flow, it is also Obon holiday meaning domestic accounts likely to be quieter.
Yen currently 110.4
Data due
Foreign Bond & Stock Investment
On Monday premarket we get GDP data pre market which may prompt caution into the close
Tokyo repored 4,989 new covid cases and nationwide the total was over 18,000 for the first time. -VE for sentiment.
Japan's top health adviser said on Thursday he would request stricter emergency measures for about two weeks to tackle a spike in COVID-19 cases in Tokyo and other areas.
Toshiba Corp (6502.T) said on Thursday it swung back to profit in the first quarter, as sales of automotive chips and hard disk drives recover from a pandemic-driven slump in demand.  The scandal-hit Japanese conglomerate also said it has been working on the selection of candidates for a permanent CEO and board chairman.
Sharp Corp. CEO and Chairman Tai Jeng-wu said Thursday he will step down by March next year and decide on his successor at the electronics company by the next shareholder meeting, usually held in June. -VE
JTB Corp says it will raise 30 billion yen on Sept 30 to bolster its capital base dented by shrinking travel demand in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.  The major travel agency will raise the capital through a third-party allotment of preferred shares with a fund created by Mizuho Bank, MUFG Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp -- which are JTB's main banks -- as well as the Development Bank of Japan. Slight +VE

SOUTH KOREA
Expect markets to open lower key will be whether Foreigners continue to sell Tech or whether we see bargain hunting ahead of the weekend.  Earnings still in focus
Data out
Import Prices Jul +19.2% YoY vs +14% Jun (F/cast was )
Export Prices Jul +16.9% YoY vs +12.7% Jun (F/cast was )
KDCA reported 1,987 new covid cases Thursday dropping but with a warning that the current wave was not over.
Celltrion said Thursday that the company’s COVID-19 antibody treatment has won an emergency approval from the Brazilian government. +VE
GC Pharma on Thursday reported positive top-line results from the phase 3 clinical trial of its immunoglobulin product GC5107. 
The results have been published in the peer-reviewed journal Frontiers in Immunology, the company said +VE
The gaming industry’s famous 3N -- Nexon, NCSoft and Netmarble -- have all suffered earnings shock in the second quarter of this year, due to the absence of new releases and increased labor costs from pay raises. -VE.
Upward pressure is growing on retail milk prices, following an increase in the price of raw milk this month, but the government seeks to delay the price hike until the end of this year amid rising inflation. -VE
Parcel deliveries will not be made from Saturday to next Monday to give delivery workers a break, following calls last year to improve the working conditions of delivery workers Slight -VE

TAIWAN
Expect market to open flat; local earnings continue to be +VE and covid under control.
No data due
Hon Hai (Foxconn) (2317.TW) reported a consensus-beating 30% surge in quarterly profit on Thursday but cautioned it would have to "wait and see" if the worsening COVID-19 crisis in Asia would hurt its supply chain.  The world's largest contract electronics maker has benefited from strong demand for technology products as people continue to telecommute amid the pandemic - a trend smartphone and laptop sellers such as Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) and Lenovo (0992.HK) say is likely to persist. +VE
Qisda Corp yesterday reported net profit of NT$3.81 billion (US$137 million), up 301 percent from a year earlier, due mainly to adopting new accounting measures.  The company said it used fair-value accounting to book its investment in AU Optronics Corp, which led to a one-time gain of NT$2.4 billion. Operating profit was NT$1.9 billion, up 33 percent year-on-year, company data showed,  +VE
FDC International Hotels Corp  yesterday posted a loss of NT$27 million (US$970,560) for last quarter, when a nationwide level 3 COVID-19 alert prompted the group to suspend operations at its main properties. -VE

CHINA
Expect market to open lower on covid concerns and debt concerns continue to linger with Evergrande’s talks failing.  
No data due but Monday we get House Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Unemployment and Fixed Asset Investment.
Congestion off China’s top two container ports Shanghai and Ningbo is worsening following the shutdown of a container terminal in Ningbo where a COVID-19 case was detected this week.Forty container vessels were waiting at the outer Zhoushan anchorage on  Thursday, up from 30 on Aug. 10 when a worker at the Meidong container  terminal tested positive for COVID-19, data tracked by Refinitiv showed. -VE
Envoys from the United States, China and other states on Thursday called for an accelerated peace process for Afghanistan as a "matter of great urgency" and for an immediate halt to attacks on provincial capitals and cities in Afghanistan. A statement issued following talks in Qatar, where envoys met with Afghan government negotiators and Taliban representatives, also reaffirmed that foreign capitals would not recognise any government in Afghanistan "imposed through the use of military force".


HONG KONG 
ADR’s -120pts at 26,396 broadbased weakness with earnings in focus. Evergrande weak as talks breakdown. Press reports record 89,000 people departing HK with a record amounts being withdrawn from MPF accounts.
Data due After Market GDP Growth Rate

EARNINGS due Friday includes: CP Pokphand (43), Shenwan Hongyuan (218), Goldlion (533), Bossini (592), Playmates Hlds (635), Playmates Toys (869), Wynn Macau (1128), CRRC HighTech (1786), SouthGobi (1878), Sands China (1928), Weiqiao Textile (2698), China Merchants Bank (3968) China Health Group (8225).

SHORT SELLING Thursday 19% vs 21% Wednesday
Top shorts 
Country Garden (2007) 52%, Wharf REIC (1997) 47%, CCB (939) 44%, Baba (9988) 41%, Hang Lung Ppty (101) 38%, Sands China (1928) 37%, Haidilao (6862) 36%, Bud Apac (1876) 35%, CSPCPharma (1093) 34%, Bank of China (3988) 33%, Sunny Optical (2382) 31%, HK & China Gas (3) 31%, HKEX (388) 31%, Ali Health (241) 30%, AAC Tech (2018) 30%, Power Assets (6) 29%, CLP (2) 29%, Hengan (1044) 28%, NWd (17) 27%, Mengniu Dairy (2319) 26%

POLITICS
Fewer candidates will be contesting the Election Committee elections compared to 2016 following the electoral changes as the nomination period closed yesterday.  
The count was 1,056 - a figure more than 30 percent less than the 1,553 nominations received in the 2016 Election Committee polls that chose the city's chief executive. -VE

WATCH
BIDU-SW Interim NP Soars 5.9x to RMB25.07B

POU SHENG INT'L (03813.HK) announced interim result ended June 2021. 
The net profit amounted to RMB636 million, up 5063.7% yearly.
EPS was RMB12.24 fen. No dividend was declared.

CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK) will concentrate on propelling its A-share listing project in 2H, 
which could be completed within this year, said the company's chairman Yang Jie. Yang added that the potential proceeds raised from the A-share listing will be utilized in technology R&D and ecology construction. The company has seen satisfactory growth in revenue and profit over 1H21 and will strive to achieve favourable growth in full-year dividend per share and continuously create greater value for shareholders, remarked Yang.

The Swire group has been actively disposing non-core assets over the past few years to generate cash resources which will go towards reinforcing its core investments and financing new projects,
so as to ensure stable and solid development in the next phase, said Merlin Swire, chairman of SWIRE PACIFIC A (00019.HK)  Short selling $4.47M; Ratio 7.520% and SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) Short selling $9.51M; Ratio 19.480% . Swire added that the group now has clear strategic goal with a focus on the development of its core businesses and that he remains optimistic for the group's business in China, believing there to be ample driving force for business growth.

SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) is more flexible in rent negotiation given a vacancy rate of nearly zero of its office projects, 
said Chief Executive Guy Bradley at the press conference. Equally, the group is working off its strength as a behemoth landlord under the decentralization trend. As for residential property business, SWIREPROPERTIES will launch a rich portfolio of home projects in Star Street, Chai Wan, Wong Chuk Hang, Quarry Bay, etc., he added.

CK ASSET (01113.HK) Short selling $27.61M; Ratio 22.688% said Li Ka Shing Foundation Limited acquired a total of 2.199 million shares in CK Asset at the average price of HK$52.4913, HK$52.3333, HK$51.4239 and HK$51.867 per share on 6 August, 9 August, 10 August and 11 August 2021 respectively.  
As a result, the deemed interests of Li Ka-shing, Victor T K Li and Li Ka Shing Foundation Limited in CK Asset under the Securities and Futures Ordinance are as follows: Li Ka-shing's stake increased from 45.68% to 45.74%; Victor T K Li's increased from 45.74% to 45.8%; and Li Ka Shing Foundation Limited's increased from 10.96% to 11.02%.

Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that, in accordance with the index rules, Shanghai Stock Exchange and China Securities Index Co., Ltd. decided to oust SMIC (688981.SH) 
from the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect Index from next Monday (16th).

MTR CORPORATION (00066.HK) Short selling $25.38M; Ratio 24.500% announced interim net profit of HK$2.673 billion,
compared to a net loss of HK$334 million for the same period in 2020. Earnings per share was HK$0.43. An interim dividend of HK$0.25 per share was declared (with scrip dividend alternative).

WH GROUP (00288.HK) unveiled the interim results for the six months ended 30 June 2021.
The net profit before biological fair value adjustments dropped 2% YoY to US$539 million. EPS was US3.66 cents. An interim dividend of HK5 cents was declared, same as a year ago. Also announced that Wan Long has resigned as the Chief Executive Officer with effect from 12 August, and will remain as an executive Director, the chairman of the Board, the chairman of the Nomination Committee, the chairman of the Food Safety Committee and the chairman of the Risk Management Committee. Guo Lijun, an executive Director, has been appointed to succeed Wan Long as the Chief Executive Officer.  He’s standing down becuase his son was fired for aggressive behaviour.

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