Aug 12 Asian Marco Initial Thoughts Expect cautious open with earnings & covid in focus


12 Aug

This and previous notes can be found at Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
Check out ERI-C.com for  interesting research and trading analysis

Asia Summary
Australia Market Futures indicate to open +10pts Earnings continue to be in focus; Telstra earnings out slightly light.  NAB, AGL  and others hitting the tapes.  Oil & gold +VE.  Covid in focus as Mebourne may extend restrictions but Sydney may ease.
Data due; Consumer Inflation Expectations, New Home Sales
Japan Nikkei Local futures opened -15pts  Chicago Futures -25pts Pre market PPI in focus along with earnings.  But the rise in covid cases a concern. PM Suga under increasing pressure ahead of announcing an election data.  
S Korea Markets futures indicate to open slightly lower with concerns over the surge in covid cases.  Earnings remain in focus but it is also Options expiry today with expectations of <300bn of selling expected but overall trading should be similar to y'day.
Taiwan Expect market to open higher on improving sentiment.
China Expect market to open lower after the  weak loans data, expect investors to look for Govt/PBoC support.
HK ADR’s +91pts at 26,751  only  BoC, BoC HK and Baba closed in the red.  Earnings in focus along with today’s IPO.  
US Futures 
Opened Dow futures +9 pts, or 0.03%. S&P 500 futures -0.02% and Nasdaq 100 futures -0.14%.

DOW +0.62%, NDX -0.16%, S&P +0.25%, Russel 2K +0.49%
Markets opened slightly higher, Dow traded sideways in the green, S&P sideways around flat but NDX sold down in the morning and then worked better in the PM. Key was the inflation number was not as bad as expected although core prices +4.3% but used car prices only +0.2% vs +10% June.
Banks 
JPMorgan Chase %, Citigroup % Wells Fargo %, AMEX %
Work from home names: Facebook -0.32%, Apple +0.2%, Amazon -0.86%, Netflix -0.67%,  Disney +0.58%, Zoom Video -3.8%, Alphabet -0.39% and Microsoft +0.2%,
Tech NXP Semi +0.5%, Nvidia -1.2%, Micron -1.2%, AMD +1.1%, Skyworks flat
Re-opening stocks  Boeing +1.6%, Caterpillar +3.6%, Simon Property +1%, Kohl’s +3%, Nordstrom +1.7%, Gap +0.3%, United Airlines +1.1%,  Carnival +1.4%, Wynn Resorts +0.4%, Chevron +0.8%, Exxon Mobil +0.3%,
Lock down names Campbell Soup +0.8% General Mills +1%, JM Smucker +1%
AFTER Market
eBay weak after disappointing Q2 revenue of $2.67 billion vs Refinitiv forecast of $3 billion. Gross merchandise volume -7%YoY to $22.1 bn, and Q3 outlook fell light on both earnings and revenue.
Sonos +7% as earnings report came in at 12 cents per share. vs Refinitiv expected -17 cents per share. Strong revenues of $378.7 million vs estimate of $313.6 million.
Rackspace Technology -5% after a disappointing Q3 forecast overshadowed stronger-than-expected results for the previous quarter. The company said it expects third-quarter revenue to range between $750 million and $760 million. That’s below a StreetAccount estimate of $763.2 million. Rackspace did beat the Street on Q2 earnings and revenue, which were 24 cents per share and $744 million, respectively.
Lordstown Motors +4.5% despite posting a bigger-than-expected loss for Q2; of 61 cents per share vs 49 cents F/cast by Refinitiv. It said it still plans to start production on its electric truck in September, with initial deliveries beginning in the first quarter of 2022.
DATA
MBA Mortgage Applications 2.8% vs -1.7% prior
MBA 30 yr Mortgage Rate 2.99% vs 2.97%
Core Inflation Rate Jul +4.3% YoY vs +4.5% Jun (F/cast was +4.4%)
Core Inflation Rate Jul +0.3% MoM vs +0.9% Jun (F/cast was +0.5%)
Inflation Rate Jul +5.4% YoY vs +5.4% Jun (F/cast was +5.4%)
Inflation Rate Jul +0.5% MoM vs +0.9% Jun (F/cast was +0.6%)
EIA Gasoline Stock Change -1.4m vs -5.292m prior (Consensus was -1.66m)
EIA Crude Oil Stock Change -0.447m vs +3.626m prior (Consensus was -1.27m)
Monthly Budget Statement Jul $-302b vs -174b prior Jun (F/cast was -280b)
USD was weaker vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +1.2% @ 46,034.99, VIX -4.4% @ 16.06, US T10 @ 1.335% after core inflation rises less than expected.
OIL Brent +1.43%, WTI +1.57% rebounds after White House calls on OPEC to boost production.
Gold +1.23%, Silver +0.55%, Copper +0.29% Platinum +2.8%, Palladium -0.58%.
AHEAD PPIInitial Claims, 4 week Average Claims, Continuing Claims, Core PPI, EIA Natural Gas Report, WASDE Report

DAX +0.35%, CAC +0.55%, FTSE +0.83%
Opened slightly higher as German inflation data in line with forecasts. Initially dipped but then DAX & CAC traded around flat for the morning and then rallied early afternoon on the US inflation data before drifting slightly lower into the close.  The FTSE worked slowly better all day.
Contruction & Materials lead the gains.
Earnings is focus; due from E.On, Uniper, Deliveroo and Admiral Group.
ABN AMRO +8.6% on second-quarter profit of 393 million euros ($460.32 million), beating analyst expectations. It also announced plans to resume dividend payments.
Meggitt +16.1% on news of an unsolicited takeover offer from U.S. rival TransDigm. The proposal valued Meggitt at 900 pence per share ($12.47 per share), exceeding the 800 pence-per-share agreement currently in place with Parker-Hannifin.
Quilter -7.2% after a adopting cautious tone regarding market volatility in its half-year earnings report.
Deliveroo -6.1% reporting for the first time since its IPO. The company doubled orders in the six months to June 30, while losses narrowed slightly to £104.8 million
Thyssenkrupp -5.4% after posting a 266 million euro quarterly profit, but warned that its steel division was lagging.
DATA
Germany
Inflation Final Jul +3.8% YoY vs +2.3% Jun (F/cast was +3.8%)
Inflation Final Jul +0.9% MoM vs +0.4% Jun (F/cast was +0.9% )
AHEAD
EUROZONE  Industrial Production
GERMANY No data due
FRANCE No data due  
UK  Balance of Trade, Business Investment, GDP Growth Rate, Construction Output, Industrial Production, Manufacturing Production, GDP 3 Month Ave, GDP, Goods Trade Balance, Labour Productivity, Construction Orders, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker.

JAPAN
Nikkei Local futures opened -15pts  Chicago Futures -25pts Pre market PPI in focus along with earnings.  But the rise in covid cases a concern. PM Suga under increasing pressure ahead of announcing an election data.  
Yen currently 110.40
Data due pre market
PPI Jul (June was +0.6% MoM F/cast is +0.3%)
PPI Jul (June was +5% YoY F/cast is +4.9%)
Later Tokyo Office Vacancies
Tokyo reported 4,200 new covid cases (+2612 DoD) with the nationwide number of 15,813 A new high -VE for sentiment.
Russia and Japan’s foreign ministers discussed plans for joint economic activity on the Russian-held southern Kuril islands that Japans lays claim to, Russia’s foreign ministry said in a statement on Wednesday.

SOUTH KOREA
Markets futures indicate to open slightly lower with concerns over the surge in covid cases.  Earnings remain in focus but it is also Options expiry today with expectations of <300bn of selling expected but overall trading should be similar to y'day. Direction of chip plays should give more sway today than options expiry with potential for a technical rebound given SEC -6%, SK Hynix -15%(RSI 28) over the last week.
No data due
KDCA reported 2,223 new coronavirus cases for Tuesday, bringing the country’s coronavirus infections to 216,206, with 2,135 deaths. -VE
North Korea on Wednesday said South Korea and the United States missed a chance to improve relations and are risking a “serious security crisis” by choosing to escalate tensions as they conduct joint military drills.
Samsung Electronics is replenishing its flagship lineup for the remaining 2021 with cheaper, more durable foldable smartphones. It presented the Galaxy Z Fold3 and Galaxy Z Flip3, two models of the Galaxy Watch4 and the wireless ear buds Galaxy Buds2, in a Galaxy Unpacked show that was live-streamed from Seoul at 11 p.m. Wednesday +VE
MSCI: effective close on Aug 31. 
ADDED : Ecopro(247540) est'd 2.3x ADV, SK IET(361610) 1.5x ADV, SK Bioscience(302240) 1.4x ADV.
DELETED KMW(032500) -5.5x ADV. SKT is expected to see net outflow of W550bn (7.6X ADV) from weighting reduction.
Ford Motor Co’s electric vehicle battery joint venture with South Korea’s SK Innovation Co Ltd will extend beyond North America into Europe, a senior Ford executive said on Wednesday +VE.
South Korea is implementing for the first time an electronic travel authorisation (ETA) system for overseas visitors from September, as the COVID-19 pandemic forces open the way for a policy previously opposed by the country's tourism industry.  Slight +VE
CJ OliveNetworks, an IT solution provider of CJ Group, said Wednesday that the company succeeded in establishing a network using public cloud and software-based WAN in Germany in what it said was an industry first. +VE
Celltrion is pushing for a broader use of its COVID-19 treament, Regkirona, both at home and abroad. Presently, Regkirona, or CT-P59, is allowed to be used on patients with severe symptoms or high risk groups with mild symptoms only. The company said Wednesday that it has asked the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety for permission to use on COVID-19 patients aged over 12, with mild or severe symptoms +VE if granted.
South Korea on Wednesday ordered a recall of 28,946 vehicles of 35 types either manufactured, imported or sold by six automakers -- Hyundai Motor, BMW Korea, Mercedes-Benz Korea, Jaguar Land Rover Korea, Toyota Motor Korea and Honda Korea. -VE
SK Telecom Co., South Korea's top wireless carrier, said Wednesday its second-quarter net income +84% YoY; thanks to gains in its equity ties with its chip-making affiliate SK hynix Inc. and growth in 5G users.

TAIWAN
Expect market to open higher on improving sentiment.
No data due
CECC reported 16 new covid cases (inc 4 imported cases).
Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) and its American counterpart held a first ever Coast Guard Working Group (CGWG) meeting Wednesday to advance joint maritime cooperation. +VE
Companies listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) last month registered a combined revenue increase of 9.05 percent year-on-year to NT$3.09 trillion (US$111 billion), the bourse said yesterday.
The exchange said in a statement that 647 firms posted revenue growth, while 305 reported declines. Firms in the shipping and transportation, iron and steel, and plastics industries reported the highest increases, it said. +VE
Asustek expects PC demand to stay strong next year due to the launch of Microsoft Corp’s Windows 11 operating system which is expected to trigger a “back to the office” wave of PC purchases once the COVID-19 pandemic subsides, Asustek Computer Inc said yesterday.  Because many new features of Windows 11 demand a certain threshold of hardware specifications. Therefore we can expect to see a wave of upgrades for machines as offices upgrade to Windows 11,” Asustek co-CEO S.Y. Hsu told an online investors’ conference in Taipei. +VE
Taiwan Sugar Corp  shareholders yesterday approved the distribution of a cash dividend of NT$1.1 per share, after the state-run company last year posted a net profit of NT$4.57 billion (US$164.1 million), surpassing its statutory net profit by NT$1.73 billion +VE.

CHINA
Expect market to open lower after the  weak loans data, expect investors to look for Govt/PBoC support.
No data due but
After Market Wednesday
New Yuan Loans Jul CNY 1080b vs 2120b Jun (F/Cast was 1250b)
Outstanding Loans Growth Jul 12.3% vs 12.3% Jun (F/Cast was 12.2% )
Total Social Financing Jul CNY 1060B vs 3670B Jun (F/Cast was 2000b)
M2 Money Supply Jul 8.3% vs 8.6% Jun (F/Cast was 8.7%)
Vehicle Sales Jul -11.9% YoY vs -12.4% Jun (F/cast was -15%)
A further sign of slowing in China; likely to raise hopes of more action from the Govt/PBoC
Regulators reported to be investigating the online Insurance Sector -VE
Top 10 Insurance Internet Platforms
1. Mayi Insurance (Alibaba)
2. Qsebao (Tencent)
3. WeiSure (Tencent)
4. JD Insurance (JD)
5. Huize (HUIZ.US)
6. Suning Insurance (Suning)
7. Ctrip Insurance (Ctrip)
8. Quantum Insurance
9. Weiease Insurance Broker
10. Duxiaoman Insurance Broker (Baidu)
 China's vehicle sales slid in July for a third consecutive month, hit hard by flooding in some areas of the country, COVID-19 outbreaks in other areas and the global shortage of semiconductors
.  The world's biggest auto market saw sales drop 11.9% from the same month a year earlier to 1.86 million vehicles, according to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM).
Canada condemned China on Wednesday for its treatment of two detained Canadian citizens, days ahead of the anticipated start of an election campaign in which opposition parties are expected to accuse the government of being soft on Beijing.
To further boost market entities' autonomous use of external ratings, the People's Bank of China decided to unroll a pilot scheme and scrap the credit rating requirement for the issuance of debt financing instruments by non-financial enterprises, with effect from today.
Autonomous driving startup Pony.ai has put on hold plans to go public in New York through a merger with a blank-check firm at a $12 billion valuation, after it failed to gain assurances from Beijing that it would not become a target of a crackdown against Chinese technology companies, people familiar with the matter said.

HONG KONG 
ADR’s +91pts at 26,751 only BoC, BoC HK and Baba closed in the red. Earnings in focus along with today’s IPO.
No data due
IPO
LI AUTO-W (02015.HK), debut today, opened at $118 in  gray market, flattish with the listing price, and last stood at $115, down 2.5% against the listing price, on volume of 12,000 shares, PhillipMart data showed.

EARNINGS due Thursday includes: Swire A&B, Galaxy, MTRC, China Everbright Envir, WH Group, PAX Global, Rusal, Yue Yuen, Value Partners, Prosperity REIT, Convenience Retail, China Mobile, Hua Hong Semi, Ausnutria, Swire Properties, Li Ning, Pou Sheng,

SHORT SELLING Wednesday 21% vs 15.7% Tuesday
Top shorts 
Bud Apac (1876) 56%, Baba (9988) 44%, Bank of China (3988) 42%, Power Assets (6) 41%, Wharf REIC (1997) 40%, Haidilao (6862) 40%, HKEX (388) 38%,  Country Garden (2007) 37%, CCB (939) 36%, AIA (1299) 35%, CK Asset (1113) 33%, CLP (2) 32%, Sunny Optical (2382) 31%, HSBC (5) 31%, CSPCPharma (1093) 31%, HK & China Gas (3) 29%, Geely Auto (175) 29%, CKI (1038) 27%, CITIC (267) 27%, Shenzhou (2313) 27%

WATCH
XPENG-W (09868.HK) (XPEV.US) announced the addition of eleven experience centers
and three service centers nationwide in July. Up to now,

LENOVO GROUP (00992.HK) Short selling $201.39M; Ratio 22.239% expressed that the company is following procedures designated by Chinese regulators in respect of its proposed CDR listing
on STAR board and is making promising progress. The company's management also stated that robust corporate PC demand has been observed. In addition to large enterprises, small-and-medium-sized ones also have strong demand, which would serve as an uplifting signal for LENOVO GROUP as the company is in the position of sector leader.

While CATHAY PAC AIR (00293.HK) Short selling $18.16M; Ratio 29.680% yearns to operate 30% of its pre-pandemic passenger capacity by the fourth quarter of 2021,
this would depend on whether travel restrictions and quarantine measures can be relaxed or scrapped, said CEO Augustus Tang at a press conference. Given higher travel demand from students in August, the airline has beefed up its passenger capacity for flights from Mainland to Hong Kong, and from Hong Kong to the UK, the U.S. and Europe, said Chief Operations and Service Delivery Officer Ronald Lam. CEO Augustus Tang expressed that the company currently has no plan to ask its employees to participate in the unpaid leave scheme within this year. Tang added that the company has been endeavoring to reduce expenses in different aspects and is confident that should the transportation capacity be recovered and the travel restrictions lifted or eased, the company will be able to realize a better cash flow.

Volvo, a wing under Zhejiang Geely Holding, the parent of GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)  
Short selling $790.21M; Ratio 28.826% , said its Swedish plant in Gothenburg will be shut off briefly in wake of shortage of semiconductor chips. Volvo said it will resume production by next week at the latest.

SUNWAH KINGSWAY (00188.HK) announced that between 22 February 2021 and 11 August 2021, the company, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, conducted on the Stock Exchange a series of on-market transactions to further dispose of an aggregate of 66,000 BYD COMPANY (01211.HK) Short selling $354.05M; Ratio 20.260% shares at an average daily price between HK$157 and HK$275 per BYD share for an aggregate consideration of approximately HK$14.383 million. The transaction resulted in a realized gain of approximately HK$1 million.

PRU (02378.HK) announced the half-year results for the six months ended 30 June 2021.
The interim loss amounted to USD4.01 billion, compared to the net profit of USD512 million for the corresponding period of the previous year. LPS was US154.2 cents. A first interim dividend of US5.37 cents was declared.

GREATWALL MOTOR (02333.HK) Short selling $121.45M; Ratio 14.653% decided to transfer a portion of its US$1-billion Indian investment to Brazil
given stalled government approvals in India, Reuters citing insiders. GREATWALL MOTOR's securities unit responded to Chinese media that the company's acquisition projects in India and Brazil are two separate projects and both are still ongoing at the moment. The unit stated that it has not been notified of any changes to the projects.

TENCENT (00700.HK)'s Shenzhen Tencent Industry Startup Investment has been included as a shareholder of Hangzhou Guanghai Technology, with a stake of around 7%, according to Tianyancha App. The data showed that Hangzhou Guanghai Technology is a Chinese education SaaS service provider, offering support in informatization to educational institutions.

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