Sept 24 Asian Macro Initial Thoughts; Japan re-opens +VE, Evergrande uncertainty remains -VE


24 Sep

This and previous notes can be found at Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
Check out ERI-C.com for  interesting research and trading analysis

Asia

Australia Market Futures indicate +8pts; with Oil and Iron Ore higher but Gold weaker.  Ex Div stocks Blackmores Limited (ASX: BKL), IRESS Ltd (ASX: IRE), QBE Insurance Group Ltd (ASX: QBE), Perpetual Limited (ASX: PPT), and Woodside Petroleum Limited (ASX: WPL).
Japan Nikkei local futures opened +43pts Chicago futures +310pts (Singapore +205) market to re-open higher.  Inflation data mixed; core inflation 0% a slight +VE.  Flash PMI’s out later
S Korea Futures indicate market to open -1.2pts pre market PPI data weaker than expected. But watch for bargain hunting in large Tech names.   Concerns over Evergrande contagion remain along with the registering of crypto exchanges with Financial Intelligence Unit.
Taiwan Market to open higher following the US.  Interest rates remain unchanged but tightening on property lending; overall +VE
China Market to open lower as concerns over Evergrande remain
WSJ says China is telling local authorities to prepare for the potenial downfall of China Evergrande.
HK ADR’s -146pts @ 24,364 broad weakness with only Tencent and Meituan +VE.  Concerns over Evergrande remain.
Europe Expect some caution ahead of German election at the weekend
US Futures  Opened Dow +20 points. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were little changed.

Norway's central bank raised its benchmark interest rate on Thursday and said it expects to hike again in December, as it joins a short but growing list of nations moving away from emergency-level borrowing costs.

DOW +1.48%, NDX +1.04%, S&P +1.21%, Russel 2K +1.82%
Markets opened higher and trended higher as concerns about the Chinese Property Market eased but eased slightly into the close.   Major Banks rallied along with Regional Banks.  
Salesforce +7.2% gain after it raised its full-year 2022 revenue guidance. Darden Restaurants +6% after reporting strong quarterly earnings.
General Electric +4.5%. Las Vegas Sands +3.2%. Caterpillar +2.7%. Energy stocks were also higher.
After Market results from Nike after hours -3.5% (was +1.4% in normal hours)and Costco Wholesale +0.8% after hours (was +0.1% normal hours).
Banks JPMorgan Chase +3.4%, Citigroup +2.3% Wells Fargo +1.5%, Amex +3.5%
Work from home names: Facebook +0.8%, Apple %, Amazon +1.1%, Netflix +0.4%,  Disney +1.5%, Zoom Video -0.6%, Alphabet +0.7% and Microsoft +0.3%,
Tech NXP Semi +1.5%, Nvidia +2.5%, Micron +0.1%, AMD +1.7%, Skyworks +0.2%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing +1.9%, Caterpillar +2.8%, Simon Property +1.1%, Kohl’s +3.8%, Nordstrom +3.4%, Gap +2.4%, United Airlines +3.9%, Carnival +4.6%, Wynn Resorts +3.8%, Chevron +2.5%, Exxon Mobil +3.4%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup -0.2%, General Mills +0.6%, JM Smucker -0.7%
DATA
Initial claims 351k vs 335k prior revised (F/cast was 310k)
Claims 4 week average 335.75k vs 336.65k prior revised (F/cast was 224.75k)
Continuing Claims 2.845m vs 2.714m prior (F/cast was 2.55m)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Aug 0.29 vs 0.75 Jul
Flash PMI’s
Manufacturing Sept 60.5 vs 61.1 Aug (F/cast was 60.5)
Services Sept 54.4 vs 55.1 Aug (F/cast was 54)
Composite Sept 54.5 vs 55.4 Aug (F/cast was 54.4)
CB Leading Index Aug 0.9% vs 0.8% Jul (F/cast was 0.6%)
EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change 76Bcf vs 83 Bcf prior (Consensus was 75 Bcf)
Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index Sept 10 vs 22 Aug (F/cast was 25)
10 yr TIPS auction -0.939% vs -1.016% prior
USD was weaker vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +2.6% @ 44,597.25, VIX -10.73% @ 18.63, US T10 @ 1.435%
OIL Brent +1.35%, WTI +1.4% hits two month high on tight supplies
Gold -2.02%, Silver -1.69%, Copper -0.48% Platinum -1.32%, Palladium -3.35%.
AHEAD
New Home Sales, Baker Hughes, Fed Speakers: Powell, Clarida, Bowman

DAX +0.88%, CAC +0.98%, FTSE -0.07%
Markets opened higher FTSE traded sideways ahead of BoE rate decision but then dipped lower to trade around flat as rate was left unchanged but warned of higher inflation on rising energy prices. DAX and CAC worked higher initially and then sideways as PMI’s in the Eurozone fell to a 5 month low. All sectors in the green.
Flash PMI data along with the BoE Interest rate decision.
EDF +2.7% said Wednesday it was in talks to buy the nuclear operations of General Electric in France.
Earnings from Superdry and Royal Mail published a July and August trading update.
Entain -4.8% profits taking after the stock had soared on the back of a takeover bid from U.S. rival DraftKings.
DATA
Eurozone
Flash PMI’s
Manufacturing Sept 58.7 vs 61.4 Aug (F/cast was 59.9)
Services Sept 56.3 vs 59 Aug (F/cast was 58.6)
Composite Sept 56.1 vs 59 Aug (F/cast was 58.5)
Germany 
Flash PMI’s
Manufacturing Sept 58.5 vs 62.6 Aug (F/cast was 60.9)
Services Sept 56 vs 60.8 Aug (F/cast was 60)
Composite Sept 55.3 vs 60 Aug (F/cast was 59.4)
France 
Flash PMI’s
Manufacturing Sept 55.2 vs 57.5 Aug (F/cast was 56.5)
Services Sept 56 vs 56.3 Aug (F/cast was 55.7)
Composite Sept 55.1 vs 55.9 Aug (F/cast was 55.4)
Business Confidence Sept 106 vs 110 Aug (F/cast 108)
Business Climate Indicator Sept 112 vs 110 Aug (F/cast was 109)
UK
Flash PMI’s
Manufacturing Sept 56.3 vs 60.3 Aug (F/cast was 59)
Services Sept 54.6 vs 55 Aug (F/cast was 55.1)
Composite Sept 54.1 vs 54.8 Aug (F/cast was 55)
BoE Interest Rate Decision 0.1% unchanged
AHEAD
EUROZONE
GERMANY Ifo data (Business Climate, Current Conditions and Expectations)
FRANCE No data due  
UK  Consumer Confidence, Distributive Trades,

JAPAN
Nikkei local futures opened +43pts Chicago futures +310pts (Singapore +205) market to re-open higher.  Inflation data mixed; core inflation 0% a slight +VE.  Flash PMI’s out later
Yen currently 110.30
Data due
Inflation Rate Aug -0.4% YoY vs -0.3% Jul (F/cast was -0.1% )
Inflation Rate Aug -0.2% MoM vs +0.2% Jul (F/cast was +0.3%)
Core Inflation Rate Aug 0.0% YoY vs -0.2% Jul (F/cast was -0.1% )
Inflation Ex Food & Energy Aug -0.5% vs -0.6% Jul (F/cast was -0.4% )
Later Flash PMI’s
Tokyo reports 531 new covid cases (-6 DoD) with the national tally 3,604.
Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi met his South Korean counterpart Chung Eui-yong on Thursday and the two restated positions in a dispute that has brought tit-for-tat trade restrictions, but agreed to accelerate consultations to resolve the issue, Japan's account of the meeting said. +VE
A first in-person meeting of the leaders of the Quad group of countries - the United States, Japan, Australia and India - on Friday will yield progress in several areas including infrastructure, health and cyber, a senior U.S administration official told Reuters +VE.
Miki Watanabe, the chief executive of Japanese pub chain Watami, has urgent advice for the next prime minister: provide fair compensation for restaurants impacted by the COVID-19 restrictions on eateries.
Japan’s government and central bank must work closely together to avoid a fall in the yen, Taro Kono, a contender in the ruling party leadership race, said on Thursday.
Japanese Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said Wednesday he and his counterparts from the United States and South Korea agreed to further strengthen cooperation to rid North Korea of its nuclear and missile program. +VE
Nintendo to release new Switch online plan with more content and the release of Splatoon 3. +VE
Fanuc mass producting robots targetting the EV sector +VE
Nippon Steel guides for further earnings upside +VE
Nitori Sept SSS -0.3% MoM vs -18.5% Aug Slight +VE

SOUTH KOREA
Futures indicate market to open -1.2pts pre market PPI data weaker than expected. But watch for bargain hunting in large Tech names.   Concerns over Evergrande contagion remain along with the registering of crypto exchanges with Financial Intelligence Unit.
Data out
PPI Aug 7.3% YoY vs 7.1% Jul (F/cast was 7.7%)
PPI Aug 0.4% MoM vs 0.7% Jul (F/cast was 1%)
KDCA reported 2,434 cases;  a surge post Choseuk holiday. -VE
A senior South Korean official on Thursday called for greater efforts to manage the country’s excessive borrowing, saying problems at China Evergrande served as an example of the debt issues economies could face as they scale back stimulus.
Celltrion announced Thursday that it had won a contract to supply its rapid COVID-19 test DiaTrust to the US government. Starting Oct. 1, Celltrion USA, Celltrion’s US-based unit, will begin supplying COVID-19 tests to 25,000 sites, including military facilities, nursing homes and COVID-19 test centers. +VE
Netflix recorded record sales for South Korea in August, a local report said Thursday.  According to the report released by industry tracker WiseApp, South Koreans’ payments to Netflix last month reached an estimated 75.3 billion won, up 78 percent from a year earlier. +ve
Korea raises electricity price for first time in 8 years  Natural gas shortage in Europe spills over to South Korea as oncoming winter spurs fuel stockpiling -VE
LG Electronics is taking over an Israeli firm with expertise in cybersecurity for automobiles as part of its plan to strengthen its auto parts business portfolio. +VE

TAIWAN
Market to open higher following the US.  Interest rates remain unchanged but tightening on property lending; overall +VE
Data due after market Export Orders
After Market Thursday
Interest Rate Decision 1.125% vs 1.125% prior (F/cast was 1.125%)
M2 Money Supply Aug +8.44% YoY vs 8.7% Jul
The central bank yesterday tightened credit controls for second-home mortgages in specific areas and purchases of plots of land, especially in industrial parks. However, the nation’s top monetary policymaker kept its policy rate at a record-low 1.125 percent for the sixth consecutive quarter, despite revising up its GDP growth forecast for this year from 5.08 percent to 5.75 percent. Overall +VE
CECC reported 9 new covid cases (all imported)
Taiwan needs to face the issue of a decade-long ban on Japanese food imports from areas affected by the 2011 nuclear disaster, now that it has formally applied to join the Tokyo-led Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the nation's top trade negotiator said on Thursday. +VE
The president of the Marshall Islands David Kabua on Wednesday urged the United Nations to put an end to the "shameful silence" targeting Taiwan in the U.N. system, on the second day of the General Debate of the U.N. General Assembly's 76th session; the second country to bring this up +VE
Taiwan’s electricity rates are to remain at NT$2.6253 per kilowatt hour (kWh) for the next six months despite rising fuel costs, the Ministry of Economic Affairs said yesterday.  The decision came after a meeting of its electricity price review committee, which determined for the seventh consecutive time that prices are to be kept frozen. A rate hike would hurt the economy, which is still reeling from this year’s COVID-19 outbreak, the ministry said. +VE
Flat-panel makers are considering reducing production amid dismal panel demand, which caused a price drop this month that was deeper than expected, market researcher TrendForce Corp  said yesterday. The price of 55-inch TV panels this month plunged 11.9% MoM, the steepest decline ever, to an average of US$185 per unit, TrendForce’s pricing data showed. -VE
Automotive component supplier Hu Lane Associate Inc saw its shares rally 6.41 percent yesterday amid optimism that its plan to form a joint venture in China with Lear Corp would help expedite the company’s expansion into the electric vehicle (EV) connector market and provide a growth opportunity. +VE

CHINA
Market to open lower as concerns over Evergrande remain
WSJ says China is telling local authorities to prepare for the potenial downfall of China Evergrande.
No data due but on the open Monday we get Industrial Profits
Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced the relevant market arrangement during the National Day holiday. The markets will be closed from 1 October (Friday) to 7 October (Thursday) and will resume normal operation on 8 October (Friday).
Chengxin Lithium said on Thursday it would take a 65% stake in a $350 million lithium project in Indonesia as it looks to build production capacity overseas.  The plant, which will make lithium chemicals used in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, will be located in Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP) on the island of Sulawesi. The park is already home to several Chinese-invested projects, including some designed to produce two other battery metals, nickel and cobalt. +VE
FT reports Beijing urges end to Afghan sanctions.  Call for Taliban to gain access to frozen funds highlights rift with west.  “Afghanistan’s foreign exchange reserves are national assets. They belong to the people and should be used for the people,” China’s foreign ministry said, citing remarks made by Wang Yi, the foreign minister, at a virtual meeting of the G20 on Afghanistan. “They must not be used as a bargaining chip to force political pressure on Afghanistan.”
HONG KONG 
ADR’s -146pts @ 24,364 broad weakness with only Tencent and Meituan +VE. Concerns over Evergrande remain.
No data due

IPO
BRONCUS-B (02216.HK), whose shares debut,
opened at $19 in gray market Thursday, up 1.6% against the listing price of $18.7, and last stood at $17.48, down 6.52% against the listing price, on turnover of $13.3 million, PhillipMart data showed.

SHORT SELLING HSI Thursday 17.9% vs 17.1% Tuesday
Top shorts 
Bud Apac (1876) 46%,   Country Garden (2007) 38%, BYD (1211) 36%, Mengniu Dairy (2319) 34%, MTR (66) 32%, HKEX (388) 29%, Baba (9988) 29%, Petrochina (857) 29%, Bank of China (3988) 28%, HSBC (5) 26%, Henderson Land (12) 25%, CH Res Land (1109) 25%, CCB (939) 25%.

NATIONAL SECURITY
Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office establishes two new departments for propaganda and security matters, picks Zeng Jian and Wang Zhenmin to head them.  Zeng’s main role is to ‘win the narrative’ on Hong Kong, while tackling misconceptions about national policy and the way the city is run.

WATCH
Chinese regulators are ordering EVERGRANDE (03333.HK) to focus on ensuring the commencement of projects under construction and avoiding a recent US dollar bond default
, Bloomberg citing sources. Slight +VE

Swiss National Bank Chairman Thomas Jordan said the bank is closely monitoring the EVERGRANDE (03333.HK) saga situation. Asked about the potential impact on Switzerland, Jordan replied that it is wrong to either be "alarmist" or dismiss the issue as a "local small problem".

CLP Group (0002) aims to phase out coal-fired generation assets by 2040, a decade earlier than previously pledged. It will help the power company achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emission by 2050, it announced on Thursday. This came after the Hong Kong government pledged to become carbon-neutral by 2050 in November last year. +VE

MINSHENG BANK (01988.HK) (600016.SH) expressed on an investor relation platform that all of EVERGRANDE Group's loans at the bank are project financing, and the pledged assets remain sufficient and effective for now, reported Chinese media Securities Times.
MINSHENG BANK further expressed that it will continue to track and monitor the operational and financial situation of EVERGRANDE Group and its connected parties. Slight +VE

Xiaomi (1810) said on Weibo that it will launch a new phone series called "Xiaomi Civi" designed for young people at a product launch event on September 27 at 2pm.  The move is considered a challenge to the status of its competitors Oppo and Vivo, which are very popular among youngsters in the mainland.  This came after the world's second-largest smartphone maker said on Wednesday that its devices do not censor users' communications, a day after Lithuania's Defence Ministry recommended that consumers avoid Chinese phones due to a censorship feature in the smartphone giant's flagship phone. +VE

CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK) released the operating statistics for August 2021. The number of the company's mobile subscribers amounted to nearly 367 million, representing a net increase of 2.18 million or 0.6% users for the month. In particular, the number of users subscribed to CHINA TELECOM's 5G package exceeded 146 million, translating into a net increase of 8.41 million users for the month, which reflects a faster growth pace compared to the net increase of 7.06 million users recorded in July. +VE

EVERGRANDE (03333.HK) announced to settle the interest payments for the maturing USD35.9 million onshore bonds on time. The troubled developer, however, did not mention whether the group would be able to pay for the interests for another batch of offshore bonds worth USD85.3 million, reported Nikkei. Although the financial crisis of EVERGRANDE seems to have slightly alleviated for now, the ultimate test on the group's cash flow ability is predicted to arrive next year, as the group will be facing maturing bond payment of as much as USD7.6 billion, the report added Slightly +VE.

Comments
* The email will not be published on the website.