Apr 13 Asian Marco Initial Thoughts Expect Asia to open cautiously ahead of China Trade Data


13 Apr

Asia
Australia 
Market futures indicate a slightly higher open; data out this morning; New Home Sales and Business Confidence Data.
Japan 
Nikkei futures opened +7pts and have risen to +35pts, expect a flat open with investors remaining cautious ahead of China Trade Data, US inflation data and US earning which start Wednesday
S Korea 
Expect markets to open lower the Kosdaq closed at 10,000 on Monday a 20 yr high on Monday.
Taiwan 
Market to open lower with investors watching the China trade data. Local results remain +VE but increased Chinese military activity is a concern.
China 
Market to open lower but key will be the Trade Data. The new loans data out aftermarket Monday was higher than f/cast but the PBOC said last year that it wanted flat loan growth this year so upside is limited and banks tend to front load lending.
HK 
ADR’s +95pts at 28,548 with a broad but small rebound. But after two down days in HK expect margin call selling initially. China New Loans data was higher than expected but likely to be curbed in the future as the PBOC reigns in debt. Key today will the be China trade data out pre market.
US Futures 
Opened flat Dow +13pts, S&P flat, NDX +0.2% Caution ahead of US Inflation data.

Ramadan starts today and runs until May 12.
Bitcoin yesterday neared an all-time high as bullish sentiment gathered steam ahead of a listing by the largest US cryptocurrency exchange; Coinbase global tomorrow.  The token rose as much as 2.6% to US$61,229, the highest in nearly a month, before falling back to trade little changed.

DOW -0.16%, NDX -0.36%, S&P -0.02%, Russel 2K -0.43% 
Markets opened lower and effectively traded sideways with investors concerned about a resurgence in covid which Powell said could impact the US recovery. They ignored the more positive parts of his talk on ’60 minutes’. Also I think caution ahead of the CPI reading today and earnings which start on Wednesday.Nuance Comm +16% as Microsoft is in talks to acquire the speech-recognition company,
Banks JPMorgan Chase -0.3%, Citigroup +0.4% Wells Fargo +0.7%, AMEX -0.1%
Work from home names: Facebook -0.3%, Apple +1.3%, Amazon +0.21%, Netflix +0.46%,  Disney +0.8%, Zoom Video -0.4%, Alphabet -1.2% and Microsoft flat
Tech NXP Semi -0.6%, Nvidia +5.6% guided Q1revenue guidance raised, Micron +0.3%, AMD -5.1%, Skyworks -0.3%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -1.1%, Caterpillar +0.1%, Simon Property -1%, Kohl’s -0.3%, Nordstrom -0.2%, Gap +1.1%, United Airlines -3.9% (warned Q1 revenue to fall 66%) , Carnival -5.3%, Wynn Resorts -1.1%, Chevron -1.1%, Exxon Mobil -0.6%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup +1.6% General Mills +1.4%, JM Smucker +1%
DATA
Consumer Inflation Expectations Mar +3.2% vs 3.09% Feb (F/cast was +3.1%)
USD was little changed vs Yen & Euro. Bitcoin +0.2% @ 59,848.75, VIX +1.3% @ 16.91, US T10 @ 1.669%
OIL Brent +0.4%, WTI flat
Gold -0.6% but rose in after market, Silver -1.7%, Copper flat, Platinum -2.3%, Palladium +1.3%%.
AHEAD NFIB Business Optimism, Core Inflation and Inflation, Redbook, API Crude Oil Stock Change.  
Fed Webinar event on race and economy

DAX -0.13%, CAC -0.13%, FTSE -0.39% 
Markets opened flat initially trended lower, following the mixed handover from Asia; with investors largely ignoring the positive comments from Powell about growth and keeping interest rates low. DAX and CAC quickly recovered to flat on good retail sales data and then traded sideways. FTSE was weaker initially and despite a rebound is trading sideways in the red. England’s non essential businesses re-opened (Hellofresh an Ocado weak)
Credit Suisse initially weak on new it was questioned by Swiss regulator FINMA over its links Greensill Capital “months” before the lender was forced to close out $10 billion of funds tied to the now-insolvent supply chain finance firm; but recovered into the green.
DiaSorin +9.6% after the Italian diagnostics company announced a $1.8 billion deal to buy U.S.-based Luminex Corp.
Suez +7.7% and Veolia +9.7% after announcing a merger deal.
EU says it won’t pay off Montenegro’s billion-dollar highway debt to China. The Balkan nation had asked Brussels to help cover the costs of the project, which has been described as one of the most expensive stretches of road in the world and threatens the Country’s finances. It also has raised concerns about the impact of Chinese investment, but a spokesman for the EU said it does not pay off partners’ loans from third parties.
DATA
Eurozone
Retail Sales Feb +3% MoM vs -5.2% Jan revised (F/cast was +1.2%)
Retail Sales Feb -2.9% YoY vs -5.2% Jan revised (F/cast was -5.4%)
France
Retail Sales Feb -1.2% MoM vs -4.3% Jan revised (F/cast was +8.5%)
Retail Sales Feb +1.6% YoY vs +1.8% Jan revised (F/cast was -2%)
AHEAD
EUROZONE ZEW Economic Sentiment
GERMANY Wholesale Prices, ZEW Economic Sentiment & Current Conditions FRANCE No data due
UK Balance of Trade, GDP, Industrial & Manufacturing Production data, Construction Output, Goods Trade Balance, NIESR Monthly GDP Tracker

JAPAN 
Nikkei futures opened  +7pts and have risen to +35pts, expect a flat open with investors remaining cautious ahead of China Trade Data, US inflation data and US earning which start Wednesday. Yen currently 109.37
No data due 
Toshiba Corp is facing a call from a leading shareholder to seek other offers from potential suitors following a $20 billion buyout bid from private equity firm CVC Capital Partners, according to a statement.  U.S. hedge fund Farallon Capital Management said the Japanese conglomerate should evaluate "the privatization proposal in a sincere manner through a fair process that includes a proactive market check and formation of an independent special committee," according to the statement +VE for shareholders
Mitsubishi Motors Corp will cut production by a combined 7,500 vehicles at three plants in Japan and Thailand in April, it said on Monday, citing chip shortages.  The company is examining whether there will be more production cuts in May, a company spokeswoman added. -VE

SOUTH KOREA 
Expect markets to open lower the Kosdaq closed at 10,000 on Monday a 20 yr high on Monday.
No data due
KDCA reported 587 more COVID-19 cases on Monday vs 614 Sunday; continuing to fall from Thursday’s high +VE
Government said on Monday it plans to begin local production of Novavax Inc’s COVID-19 vaccine as early as June, while five domestic companies aim to start late stage clinical trials of their own shots in the second half of this year.
Foreign ministry voiced "grave concerns" Monday over Japan's decision, expected this week, to release contaminated water from its wrecked Fukushima nuclear power plant into the sea.
SK Innovation was +15% Monday having agreed to pay its rival, an LG Chem Ltd +1%, 2 trillion won ($1.8 billion) to drop all litigation in a bitter trade secrets dispute. That was far less than expected with some estimates putting settlement costs at 7 trillion won. Expect to see some consolidation today. Anaylst’s think the company will still struggle main concerns are; the company is not in the energy storage systems business. Second, as a latecomer to the battery business, it offers batteries to automaker clients at cheaper prices than competitors LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI.
Major e-commerce giants in South Korea are offering the cheapest prices and free delivery to keep an edge over their rivals, as competition grows amid the pandemic-fueled online shopping boom.  E-commerce grocer Market Kurly was the latest to ramp up competition on Monday as it announced its “Every Day Low Price” -- a lowest-price guarantee program for some 60 food products.  +VE for consumers but -VE for shareholders.
Pan Ocean Co., South Korea's second-largest shipper by sales, said Monday it has signed another deal with global oil giant Shell NA LNG, LLC (Shell) for the lease of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) bunkering ship for six years. +VE
Posco estimated Monday its first-quarter operating profit hit the highest point in 10 years on robust demand amid global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. +VE

TAIWAN 
Expect market to open lower with investors watching the China trade data.Local results remain +VE but increased Chinese military activity is a concern.
No data due 
China’s People Liberation Army flew 25 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone (ADIZ) on Monday, its largest incursion yet as tension in the Taiwan Strait continues to escalate.   According to Taiwan’s defence ministry, the PLA warplanes – 14 Jian-16 fighter jets, four Jian-10s, four H-6K bombers, two Y-8 anti-submarine warfare planes and one KJ-500 airborne early warning and control aircraft – entered the island’s southwest zone on Monday. -VE
Momo.com Inc yesterday reported record-high consolidated revenue of NT$6.11 billion (US$214.7 million) for last month, up 17 percent from a year earlier. First-quarter revenue totaled NT$18.36 billion, up 21.55 percent from a year earlier and the second-highest quarterly revenue on record.  The luxury goods sector, which took a hit in March last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic, came roaring back this year, with revenue gaining 46 percent year-on-year, the company said in a statement. +VE
Apple faces production shortages for new iPads At least one of the MiniLED makers has had to pause production as a result, press reported.Taiwan-based suppliers Ennostar Inc, General Interface Solution Holding Ltd and Taiwan Surface Mounting Technology Corp are among the key providers of MiniLED technology. Slight  -VE
WPG Holdings Co yesterday reported record revenue for last month and the first quarter on the back of rising demand amid the COVID-19 pandemic. “The overall demand for laptops, PCs, mobile phones, communication components, servers and cloud applications remains strong due to the new normal — distance working and education,” WPG said in a statement. Revenue last month rose 26.1 percent from a year earlier and 42.8 percent from the previous month to NT$68.1 billion, the company said, attributing the increase to strong demand for semiconductors and related components. First-quarter revenue reached NT$177.11 billion, a  35.2 percent increase from the previous year’s NT$131.04 billion, it said. +VE
China Steel Corp yesterday posted record revenue of NT$36.89 billion for last month, up 22.54 percent month-on-month and 32.93 percent year-on-year. First-quarter revenue was NT$97.82 billion, an increase of 25.54 percent from a year earlier, the company said. Revenue for this quarter is likely to exceed NT$100 billion, as the company said it expects the uptrend to continue in the near term, coupled with the high-season effects in the second quarter. +VE
Chunghwa Telecom Co  yesterday reported that revenue last month increased 4.16 percent year-on-year to NT$16.22 billion, mainly due to increased sales of information and communications technology projects and handsets, which offset a sales decrease in its fixed-line business, the company said in a statement. On a monthly basis, revenue fell 3.18 percent, company data showed. Net income was NT$2.74 billion last month, or earnings per share of NT$0.35, the company said, adding that revenue and earnings per share exceeded its first-quarter guidance. +VE

CHINA 
Expect market to open lower but key will be the Trade Data.  The new loans data out aftermarket Monday was higher than f/cast but the PBOC said last year that it wanted flat loan growth this year so upside is limited and banks tend to front load lending.
Data due pre market 
Balance of Trade Mar (Feb was $103.25bn F/castis $51bn)
Exports Mar (Feb was 60.6% Consensus is 35.5%)
Imports Mar (Feb was 22.2% Consensus is 23.3%)
Out after market Monday
New Yuan Loans Mar CNY 2730bn vs 1360bn Feb (F/cast was CNY 2520bn)
Outstanding Loan Growth Mar 12.6% vs +12.9% Feb (F/cast was 12.8%)
Total Social Financing Mar CNY 3340bn vs 1710bn Feb (F/cast was CNY 3680bn)
M2 Money Supply Mar +9.45 vs 10.1% Feb (F/cast was 9.8%)
President Xi  likely to take part in Joe Biden’s Earth Day climate summit.  Ahead of the virtual talks, US climate envoy John Kerry is expected to travel to Shanghai to meet Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua.  Climate change is an area where the two powers have said they could work together amid deepening tensions Slight +VE
Air France-KLM will expand its partnership with China Eastern Airlines, as the Chinese carrier contributes to a 1 billion-euro ($1.2 billion) share issue heavily backed by the French government, the airline group said on Monday. +VE

HONG KONG  ADR’s +95pts at 28,548 with a broad but small rebound.  But after two down days in HK expect margin call selling initially.  China New Loans data was higher than expected but likely to be curbed in the future as the PBOC reigns in debt.  Key today will the be China trade data out pre market.
No data due
Short Selling Monday 14.8% vs 15.9% Friday
Top Shorts  
Bud Apac (1876) 68%, Ali Health (241) 36%, BankComm (3328) 35%,  HSBC (5) 33%, Country Garden (2007) 31%, Ping An (2318) 30%,  CCB (939) 29%,  Wuxi Bio (2269) 29%, ICBC (1398) 27%, Bank of China (3988) 27%,  Mengniu Dairy (2319) 26%, Hang Lung Property (101) 26%, Hang Seng Bank (11) 25%.
WATCH
Ant Group issued a statement, saying the Chinese financial watchdog had made rectification request on the Group in five key areas last year end. Recently, the study and preparation work for the rectification plan has been completed.  Leveraging the rectification as a reform opportunity, the Group is more steadfast in anchoring itself to serve small-and-micro enterprises.  The People's Bank of China, China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission, and State Administration of Foreign Exchange etc. conducted further joint meeting with Ant Group on 12 April.Pan Gongsheng, Vice President of the PBOC, said the financial regulatory bodies had pushed Ant Group to formulate a comprehensive and feasible rectification plan, primarily touching five areas: 1) correcting improper competition behavior in payment business; 2) ceasing information monopoly; 3) applying to the government to form a financial holding company; 4) implementing prudential supervision requirements; and 5) controlling the liquidity risk of key fund products. Looks like the PBOC will get more access to people’s financial information; it will be interesting to see how that impacts the business.  Also the move to separate payments and products will hurt the company.
FOSUN TOURISM (01992.HK) announced that its Lijiang Resorts - Club Med, had earlier held the "topping-out" ceremony, and expected the business to open this autumn.
TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) (TCOM.US)’s IPO registered approximately $4.6 billion margin as at around 5:30 pm Monday according to brokers. Based on the public fundraising amount of about $737 million, the IPO was over-subscribed by more than 5.2 times.
CHOW TAI FOOK (01929.HK) announced that the Retail Sales Value (RSV) growth hit 153% yearly for the three months ended 31 March 2021 (the Fourth Quarter).  Same Store Sales (SSS) and SSS volume in Mainland China grew 141% and 86.7%, respectively.
Huawei has entered into cooperation with BAIC MOTOR (01958.HK), whereby the two companies will unroll a series of new vehicles, said Deputy Chairman Eric Xu.  The firm is also teaming up with GAC GROUP (02238.HK)  -0.180 (-2.663%)    Short selling $36.96M; Ratio 19.695%   and CHANGAN AUTOMOBILE (000625.SZ)  -0.28 (-1.934%)   to create a sub-brand in the automobile sector, added Xu.
Chief Executive Carrie Lam, in appearance at the press conference, announced the relaxing of some social distancing measures.  

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