Oct 5 Asian Initial Thoughts Weakness as US sells off on inflation concerns.


05 Oct

This and previous notes can be found at Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
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Asia
Global airlines on Monday projected a sharp reduction in industry losses next year as a multispeed recovery from the coronavirus crisis gets under way, but revised up the financial toll inflicted by the pandemic in 2020 and 2021. +VE

Australia Market sold down initially  following the sell off in US  Tech.  Iron ore rises flat in Singapore but rising.  Oil strong. Gold was slight +VE.   Ex Div Atlas Arteria Group (ASX: ALX), Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd (ASX: CWY), NIB Holdings Limited (ASX: NHF) and SEEK Limited (ASX: SEK).
Pre market data better than forecast but investors cautious ahead of the RBA decision and other data.
Data out
Construction Index Sept 53.3 vs 38.4 Aug (F/cast was 45.6)
Services PMI Sept 45.5 vs 42.9 Aug (F/cast was 44.9)
Composite PMI Sept 46.5 vs 43.3 Aug (F/cast was 46)
Data to come Balance of Trade, Exports & Imports, Job Advertisements, Inflation Gauge, Retail Sales, RBA Interest Rate Decision.
Japan Nikkei futures currently falling  Chicago Futures -VE .  Pre market CPI data slightly better than expected.
S Korea Expect markets to reopen lower with concerns over inflation, not helped by the delay in the release of this mornings inflation data..
Taiwan Market to open lower following US tech sell off and as China continues its air incursions.
China Market closed re-opens friday
HK ADR’s -119pts @ 23,917 broad weakness. Expect some initial margin call selling after the 539pt fall yesterday.  Short selling increased so the potential for a short squeeze increased but potential activity in the CBBC warrant market below 24,000 could prompt more downside pressure.  The default of another Property company a further concern for the sector.
US Futures 
Opened Dow +35pts, S&P +0.1% and NDX +0.2% and has risen in early trades, currently Dow +45pts S&P +0.2%, NDX +0.3%

DOW -0.94%, NDX -2.14%, S&P -1.3% (below its 100 day MA), Russel 2K -1.08%
Markets opened lower and sold down in the first couple of hours and then traded sideways with Tech being sold down as bond yields rose on inflation concerns.
Merck +2.1 on further +VE news over its oral antiviral pill.  +VE cross read for Airlines, Travel and re-opening names.  Energy +VE as OPEC + met virtually and decided to maintain plan for gradual output increases.
Tesla +0.8% as deliveries beat forecasts.
Banks JPMorgan Chase -0.11%, Citigroup unch Wells Fargo unch, Amex -0.74%
Work from home names: Facebook -4.9% has a significant outage and as whistleblower reveals how it failed to ensure standards putting profits first. Apple -2.46%, Amazon -2.85%, Netflix -1.6%,  Disney -1.45%, Zoom Video %, Alphabet -2.11% and Microsoft %,
Tech NXP Semi -2.04%, Nvidia -4.87%, Micron -0.52%, AMD -2.06%, Skyworks -2.58%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -0.98%, Caterpillar -0.62%, Simon Property -0.67%, Kohl’s +0.82%, Nordstrom -0.15%, Gap +1.36%, United Airlines %, Carnival -2.87%, Wynn Resorts -4.19%, Chevron +0.37%, Exxon Mobil +1.3%.
Lock down names Campbell Soup +1.4% General Mills +1.37%, JM Smucker +1.07%
DATA
Factory Orders Aug +1.2% MoM vs +0.7% Jul revised (F/cast was +0.7%)
Factory Orders Ex Transport Aug +0.5% MoM vs +0.9% Jul revised (F/cast was +0.5%)
USD continued weakness. Bitcoin -0.1% @ 48,827.42, VIX +8.6% @ 22.96, US T10 @ 1.481%
OIL Brent +2.5%, WTI +2.3% as OPEC+ decides on gradual hikes
Gold +0.01%, Silver +0.01%, Copper +2.14% Platinum +0.05%, Palladium +0.01%.
AHEAD Total Vehicle Sales, Balance of Trade. Exports, Imports, Redbook, Services and Composite PMI, ISM Non Manufacturing (PMI, Business Activity, New Orders, Employment), IBB/TIPP Economic Optimism, API Crude Oil Stock Change

DAX -0.79%, CAC -0.61%, FTSE -0.23%
Market opened lower but worked back to flat and traded around flat.
Basic resources were positive but Tech was weak. Investors were watching for an announcement from the OPEC+ meeting.
Kindred Group -8% after a broker downgrade.
TechnipFMC +6.4% after Technip Energies, in which it has a stake, announced a joint development with Siemens Energy.
Sainsbury +3.3% on speculation it could be a takeover target following rival Morrisons’ sale to U.S. private equity firm Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R).
DATA
Eurozone 
Eurogroup meeting to discuss recovery plans, banking union and fiscal policy.
AHEAD
Eurozone Services and Composite PMI, PPI.
Germany Services and Composite PMI, New Car Rgistrations
France Industrial Production, Services and Composite PMI,
UK  New Car Sales, Services and Composite PMI.

JAPAN Nikkei futures currently falling  Chicago Futures -VE .  Pre market CPI data slightly better than expected.
Yen currently 110.91
Data out
Tokyo CPI Sept +0.3% YoY vs -0.4% Aug (F/cast was -0.4%)
Tokyo Core CPI Sept +0.1% YoY vs 0.0% Aug (F/cast was +0.1%)
Later Services and Composite PMI.
PM Kishida said Monday he will dissolve the lower house next week in preparation for Oct 31 elections as he seeks a fresh mandate to deal with the coronavirus pandemic, the sagging economy and security threats from China and North Korea. He is expected to stick with Abeconomics and  trying to boost middle class incomes: Slight +VE
NTT Docomo Inc has revealed that a phishing scam using a fraudulent company account targeted the mobile phone carrier’s users, netting the perpetrators 100 million yen. According to police and NTT Docomo, on Oct 2, customers received a fake text message claiming that their fees were unpaid, Sankei Shimbun reported. Inside the phishing message was a URL to download an app called “NTT Security,” where Docomo users were asked to enter their network PIN number. -VE
Honda Motor Co on Monday began selling new cars online, becoming the first major Japanese automobile manufacturer to allow customers in the domestic market to complete the whole process online from consultations to contracts. +VE
Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp (JOGMEC) and Mitsui & Co Ltd said on Monday they will jointly study the feasibility of carbon capture and storage (CCS) in Western Australia, using Mitsui’s assets.+VE
The move comes as a part of their efforts to create a supply chain of ammonia as a fuel in Western Australia to help combat climate change, they said in the statements.

SOUTH KOREA Expect markets to reopen lower with concerns over inflation, not helped by the delay in the release of this mornings inflation data..
Data delayed but due
Inflation Rate Sept YoY vs +2.6% Aug (F/cast was +2.4%)
Inflation Rate Sept MoM vs +0.6% Aug (F/cast was +0.4%)
The two Koreas on Monday restored their hotlines that the North severed months ago, with Pyongyang urging Seoul to step up efforts to improve relations after criticising what it called double standards over weapons development.  Slight +VE
Starting Tuesday, the first appointments for COVID-19 booster shots will open up as the nation continues to cope with the more contagious delta variant.  Comes asSocial distancing rules extended for 2 more weeks but slightly eased for weddings, outdoor sports  +VE
Sales at local convenience stores continued to increase despite economic setbacks from COVID-19, government data showed Monday. +VE  but Supermarket sales went down throughout the first six months, then bounced back 2.8 percent on-year in July only to decline 5.3 percent in August. -VE
Sales at local department stores decreased by 6.3 percent on-year in January, but increased between February and June. Slight +VE
Hyundai Glovis, the logistics arm of Hyundai Group, said Monday it will launch “Ecoh,” a new environmentally friendly business brand which will focus on hydrogen distribution and recycling of electric vehicle batteries. Slight +VE


TAIWAN Expect market to open lower with Tech under pressure after US sell off and Chinese aggression
No data due
Peace in the Taiwan Strait is key to the island’s ability to ensure a continuous supply of the chips needed to power a wide range of products from cars to smartphones, a senior Taiwanese official said.
Taipei is seeking to rally political support as China ramps up its aggression toward the island that it considers part of its territory. Warplanes sent by Beijing made a record 93 flights close to Taiwan over a three-day period starting Friday, prompting the U.S. State Department to express concern and urge China to cease its “provocative” actions. +VE for the Country being recognised again by UN.
The official Manufacturing PMI last month advanced by the weakest pace in 14 months to 57.8, as firms were less active in building inventory due to concerns over correction risks linked to port congestion and supply chain disruptions, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research  said yesterday. Slight -VE
Nanya Technology Corp yesterday posted its first monthly decline in revenue in about a year, as prices and shipments began to slump amid faltering demand.  Revenue shrank 6.49 percent to NT$7.68 billion (US$275.6 million) last month, compared with NT$8.21 billion in August, the company said in a statement. On an annual basis, revenue surged 38.4 percent from NT$5.55 billion.  Shipments and chip prices both dropped to low-single digits last month from August, the New Taipei City-based chipmaker said. -VE
Chi Mei Corp , a leading synthetic and electronic materials supplier, yesterday said that it has incurred more than NT$1 billion (US$35.89 million) in losses after disposing of some of its stake in flat panel maker Innolux Corp.  The sale of about 183.71 million Innolux shares, representing a more than 2 percent stake in the company, came after a rethink about how it wanted to reallocate its funds, Chi Mei said in a filing with the Taiwan Stock Exchange. -VE

CHINA
Market closed due to re-open on Friday
No data due
U.S. trade negotiator Katherine Tai on Monday pledged to exclude some Chinese imports from tariffs imposed by former President Donald Trump while pressing Beijing in “frank” talks over its failure to keep promises made in Trump’s trade deal and end harmful industrial policies. -VE
As countries vie for attention at Expo 2020 Dubai, China has gone all out, hoping to take centre stage by showcasing more than 5,000 years of civilisation crowned by recent technological advances.   A robotic panda shakes hands with visitors to its pavilion, named “Light of China”, one of the biggest at the expo which opened last week.   Shaped like a traditional Chinese red lantern, the three-storey pavilion aims to draw millions of visitors who are expected at the first world fair to be held in the Middle East. Slight +VE
Malaysia summons Chinese envoy for second time since June, over vessels in South China Sea.  Ministry of Foreign Affairs says ambassador Ouyang Yujing was summoned on Monday to ‘protest’ presence of Chinese ships in Malaysia’s exclusive economic zone
Kuala Lumpur has long sought to keep ties with its biggest trading partner on an even keel, despite tense episodes in the waters off Sabah and Sarawak -VE for China’s reputation

HONG KONG  ADR’s -119pts @ 23,917 broad weakness. Expect some initial margin call selling after the 539pt fall yesterday.  Short selling increased so the potential for a short squeeze increased but potential activity in the CBBC warrant market below 24,000 could prompt more downside pressure.  The default of another Property company a further concern for the sector.
No data due

SHORT SELLING HSI Monday 23.7% vs 20.5% Thursday
Top shorts 
China Res Land (1109) 50%, Country Garden (2007) 49%, Shenzhou (2313) 48%, Bud Apac (1876) 48%, AAC Tech (2018) 41%, Sands China (1928) 39%, Wharf REIC (1997) 39%, Sunny Optical (2382) 39%, Hengan (1044) 39%, HKEX (388) 35%, AIA (1299) 35%, Haidilao (6862) 34%, Mengniu Dairy (2319) 34%, Power Assets (6) 34%, BDY (1211) 34%, SHKP (16) 32%, Wuxi Bio (2269) 32%, Petrochina (857) 32%, HK & China Gas (3) 32%, CKH (1) 32%, Xiaomi (1810) 31%, Ali Health (241) 29%, HSBC (5) 29%, Xinyi Glass (868) 29%, CM Bank (3968) 28%, SinoBiopharm (1177) 26%, CLP(2) 26%, PingAn (2318) 26%, Techtronics (669) 25%, BoC HK (2388) 25%, CG Services (6098) 25%, CCB (939) 25%.

BUYBACKS
CHINA GAS HOLD (00384.HK) announced it had repurchased 2.9304 million shares of the company on the Stock Exchange today (4th) at $21.05-23 per share, involving approximately $63.1716 million.

WATCH
US to engage China in the coming days over their performance under the Phase 1 Trade Deal and also regarding a new process to exclude some items. 


The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) released a technical whitepaper on retail central bank digital currency (CBDC), titled “e-HKD: A technical perspective” to discuss potential technical design options for issuing and distributing retail CBDCs. This would help inform further consideration and deliberation on the technical design of the e-HKD. The design of the proposed architecture was guided by three key principles, namely: safety, efficiency, and openness. The proposed architecture consists of two layers: a wholesale system and a retail system.

JINGRUI HLDGS (01862.HK) announced that the aggregated contracted sales for September was RMB1.805 billion, down 26.72% year-over-year. The Group’s contracted gross floor area was 98,800 square meters, down 13.21%. The Group’s contracted average selling price was approximately RMB18,275 per square meter.

COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK) announced that for the single month of September 2021, the Company and its subsidiaries, together with its joint ventures and associates, achieved contracted sales attributable to the shareholders of the Company amounted to approximately RMB45.66 billion, down 29.4% yearly.

Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited announced that the results of the 2021Q3 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes will be announced on 19 November 2021 (Friday). The constituent changes will be made to the Hang Seng Family of Indexes with effect from 6 December 2021 (Monday), the company added.

The total number of agents with licences reached 41,518 in September 2021, setting a historical high according to the Estate Agents Authority's data as of end-September. The size burgeoned by 0.8% monthly, or 310 agents, rising for the 4th straight month.

MODERN LAND (01107.HK) announced that for the nine months ended 30 September 2021, contracted sales of the Group amounted to approximately RMB33.544 billion, up 24.6% yearly.

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