Oct 17 Things to know before trading Asia on Monday

17 Oct

This and previous notes can be found at Substack ( Asian Market Sense )
Check out ERI-C.com for  interesting research and trading analysis

Expect markets to open higher on Monday following Friday’s US rally but with caution ahead of key China data. The overhang from Evergrande and other developers continues to cause concern as investors seek to evaluate the investment landscape. The Economist has a good article on China’s policy of treating covid, along with one on how the world is learning to deal with covid. Its main theme is on the transition to clean energy.

FT reports that CY Leung, Hong Kong’s former leader has called on Chinese companies to boycott Mayer Brown after the US law firm stopped representing a local university seeking to remove from its campus a memorial to the Tiananmen Square massacre. Saying the firm owes Hong Kong a full account of its decision to cease to act for Hong Kong university, and of the foreign interventions leading to that decision. Underlines the increased risks of working in Hong Kong/China.

The U.S. plans to open its borders to vaccinated international travelers on November 8, the biggest travel policy shift since the virus’s early days.
And in Asia-Pacific, some of the world’s longest and toughest Covid-induced border curbs are finally being eased, with countries taking their firmest steps yet toward reopening to international travel in recent days. China, meanwhile, ordered five airlines to halt flights after cases were detected on board.

Data due this week
Australia RBA minutes, Leading Index, Annual Report, PMI data
Japan Balance of Trade, Exports,  Imports, Inflation data, PMI.
Japan's exports likely grew at the slowest pace in seven months in September while core consumer prices turned positive for the first time since early last year, a Reuters poll showed, in a sign of the evolving economic impact of the COVID-19 health crisis.
The mixed batch of data will likely highlight pressures Japan's export-reliant economy faces from a surge in global raw material prices as well as coronavirus-linked output and supply chain disruptions, which are clouding the overseas demand outlook.
S Korea PPI
Taiwan Export Orders, Unemployment,
China Big week; GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production, Industrial Capacity Utilisation, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, NBS Press Conference, Fixed Asset Investment (YTD), FDI data, Loan Prime Rate, House Price Index
HK Unemployment Rate, Business Confidence, Inflation Rate.
Eurozone  Construction Output, Current Account, Inflation Data, PMI data
Germany PMI data
France Business Confidence and Climate Indicator, PMI data
UK Inflation data, Retail Price Index, PPI data, Business Optimism Index and Industrial Trends, Consumer Confidence, Retail Sales, PMI data.
US Large number of Fed Speakers, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilisation, Manufacturing Production, NAHB Housing Market Index,  Monthly Budget Statement, Foreign Bond  Investment, Net Long Term Tic Flows, Overall Net Capital Flows, Housing Starts, Building Permits, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Business Conditions, CAPEX, Employment, New Orders, Prices Paid), Existing Home Sales, Leading Index, PMI data

DOW +1.09%, NDX +0.5%, S&P +0.75%, Russel 2K -0.37%
Markets opened higher; S&P and NDX traded sideways but Dow worked slightly better.   Q3 earnings still in focus with Goldman’s +3.8% after significantly beating estimates; following the other banks; which suggests the US consumer is healthy and active.  Also helping sentiment; Retail Sales rose more than expected suggesting strength in the supply chains and a willingness by consumers to pay higher prices.  Bitcoin rallied to above US$60,000 as it appears the SFC will approve bitcoin ETF’s (Coinbase +7.9% and  Tesla+3%).
Earnings have been strong; next week we get Netflix, United Airlines, Tesla and Union Pacific, among other firms, are set to report earnings.
Banks JPMorgan Chase +1.92%, Citigroup -0.15% Wells Fargo +6.78%, Amex +2.5%
Work from home names: Facebook -1.15%, Apple +0.75%, Amazon +3.3%, Netflix -0.87%,  Disney +1.18%, Zoom Video -0.26%, Alphabet +0.15% and Microsoft +0.48%,
Tech NXP Semi +0.38%, Nvidia +0.53%, Micron -0.18%, AMD +0.12%, Skyworks +0.18%
Re-opening stocks  Boeing -0.18%, Caterpillar +2.4%, Simon Property +0.64%, Kohl’s +0.52%, Nordstrom +2.7%, Gap -2.64%, United Airlines +0.19%, Carnival -0.25%, Wynn Resorts -1%, Chevron +0.74%, Exxon Mobil +0.95%,  
Lock down names Campbell Soup -0.8% General Mills -0.32%, JM Smucker +0.1%
Retail Sales Sept +0.7% MoM vs +0.9% Aug revised (F/cast was -0.1%)
Retail Sales Sept +13.9% YoY vs +15.4% Aug revised (F/cast was 9%)
Retail Sales Ex Autos Sept +0.8% MoM vs +2% Aug revised (F/cast was +0.3%)
Retail Sales Ex Gas & Autos Sept +0.7% vs +2.1% Aug revised (F/cast was +0.5%)
Import Sept +9.2% YoY vs +8.9% Aug revised (F/cast was +9.5%)
Import Sept +0.4% MoM vs -0.3% Aug (F/cast was +0.6%)
Export Prices Sept +16.3 YoY vs +16.8% Aug (F/cast was +16.7%)
Export Prices Sept +0.1% MoM vs +0.4% Aug (F/cast was +0.5%)
NY State Empire State Manufacturing Index Oct 19.8 vs 34.3 Sept (F/cast was 28)
Business Inventories Aug +0.6% MoM vs +0.6% Jul revised (F/cast was +0.5%)
Michigan Prelim
Consumer Sentiment Oct 71.4 vs 72.8 Sept (F/cast was 75)
5yrs Inflation Expectations Oct 2.8% vs 3% Sept (F/cast was 3%)
Consumer Expectations Oct 67.2 vs 68.1 Sept (F/cast was 68.5)
Inflation Expectations Oct 4.8% vs 4.6% Sept (F/cast was 4.7%)
Current Conditions Oct 77.9 vs 80.1 Sept (F/cast was 80)
Baker Hughes Total Rig Count 543 vs 533 prior
Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count 445 vs 433 prior
USD was little changed. Bitcoin +6.9% @ 61,620.00 above $60k for the first time for 6months, VIX -3.3% @ 16.3, US T10 @ 1.574%
OIL Brent +1.02%, WTI +1.19%
Gold -1.7%, Silver -0.54%, Copper +1.9% Platinum +0.46%, Palladium -3.5%.
AHEAD Industry Production, Capacity Utilisation, Manufacturing Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Monthly Budget Statement, Foreign Bond Investment, Net Long Term Tic Flows, Overall Net Capital Flows.

DAX +0.81%, CAC +0.63%, FTSE +0.37%
Markets opened higher FTSE traded sideways slightly +VE all day as did the CAC although slightly higher. DAX traded better through the day. Banks lead the gains, whilst media was the laggard. Oil in focus after OPEC+ dismissed requests to increase supply.
Earnings in focus with Rio Tinto, Redrow and Schroders were among those reporting earnings
French consumer price inflation was largely inline as were Eurozone new car registrations but at -23.1%.
THG climbed 3.7% in early trade to lead the Stoxx 600, continuing its rebound from a 35% single-day plunge on Tuesday.
Temenos -13% after missing Q3 revenue expectations.
Data out 
Balance of Trade Aug €4.8B vs €20.7B Jul (F/cast was €16.4B)
New Car Registrations Sept -23.1% YoY vs19.1% Aug (F/cast was -23%)
Inflation Rate Final Sept +2.2% YoY vs 1.9% Aug (F/cast was 2.1%)
Inflation Rate Final Sept -0.2% MoM vs +0.6% Aug (F/cast was -0.2%)
Eurozone No data due
Germany No data due
France No data due  
UK  No data due

Nikkei to open higher following the US on Friday and with the weak Yen +VE for Exporters
Yen currently 114.2 its lowest in 3 years
No data due
Tokyo reported 57 new covid cases on Friday (-5 DoD) with the national total 531.  +VE
Investors watching the political posturing ahead of the end of month election, with the LDP concerned about the opposition parties unifying to contest more than 200 constituencies.
PM Kishida on Friday told reporters he had spoken with South Korean President Moon Jae-in urging an "appropriate" response on disputes including compensation for forced wartime labour. +VE
Any digital currency the Bank of Japan issues should have a simple design that private firms can use to develop financial and payment services for customers, a senior central bank official said on Friday. If central banks were to decide on issuing digital currencies, they need to co-exist with private-sector payment services, BOJ executive director Shinichi Uchida said.  "To achieve vertical coexistence, a relatively simple central bank digital currency (CBDC) design is desirable for the private sector to use it as an ingredient" to develop various services, he told a speech. +VE
Economic revitalization minister Daishiro Yamagiwa on Sunday revealed a plan to set up a fund to support the development of cutting-edge technologies crucial for the country’s economic security.   “The government will fully support private-sector companies’ research and development activities for advanced technologies, and their efforts to prepare a business environment for such technologies,” he said during a television program.  The fund will likely be worth about ¥100 billion. The government will include the planned fund in a package of economic measures to be drawn up after the Oct. 31 Lower House election. Slight  +VE
For the first time in 15 years, the Economy, Trade and Industry Ministry will revise its targets for the energy-saving performance of household air conditioners, The Yomiuri Shimbun reported.  Scheduled for next fiscal year, the revisions will require manufacturers to save about 30% more energy than the current level by fiscal 2027. Heaters and air conditioners account for about 30% of energy consumption in the household sector. By promoting energy-saving efforts, the ministry will make more progress toward decarbonization. It also hopes that the revisions will boost sales of Japanese makers high-performance air conditioners in overseas markets.

Expect markets to open higher
No data due
KDCP reported 1,618 new covid cases on Saturday  (-66 DoD)  with concerns that the cold wave alerts being issued could impact the covid spread.
South Korea’s key stock index has hovered around the 3,000-point threshold, trapping it in a box pattern again, amid global uncertainties tied to heightening inflationary pressure, the US Federal Reserve’s early tapering concerns and the growing debt crisis faced by China’s Evergrande Group. The daily volume of forced selling of stocks by local brokerages reached a 14-year high.  Total losses of retail investors due to forced selling is expected to soar even more since the Kospi is likely to stay in a box pattern for a while, market watchers said. They forecast the index will move in a tight range between 2,900 points and 3,030 points this week.    Another factor likely to impact the market this week will be company earnings.
South Korea‘s major banks are set to loosen control on extension of "jeonse" loans for homes, but their tightened grip over personal credit loans will continue under pressure from financial authorities, according to industry sources Sunday. +VE
South Korea said on Friday it would lift stringent anti-coronavirus curbs on social gatherings next week, as the country prepares to switch to a 'living with COVID-19' strategy amid rising vaccination levels.  A new panel established this week is drawing up a plan for a gradual return to normalcy in the long term, eventually lifting sweeping restrictions and reopening the economy in November on the expectation that 80% of the adult population will be fully vaccinated.
Apple Inc was on a collision course with South Korea on Friday over new requirements that it stop forcing app developers to use its payment systems, with a government official warning of a possible investigation into the iPhone maker's compliance. The development comes after South Korea amended the Telecommunication Business Act in August to try to curb the tech majors' market dominance and stop the big app store operators such as Apple and Alphabet Inc's  Google from charging commissions on in-app purchases.
LG Electronics launches tiium, a smart plant growing device for home gardeners. Part of its attempt to expand sales into more areas of consumers lives.  Slight +VE
Sales of air tickets to Madrid increased 625 percent on-month in September amid growing hopes for a resumption of overseas tourism, as vaccination speeds up in South Korea.  Interpark Tour is offering new tour packages for the region, such as northern lights tours of Iceland, Finland and Norway.  Their European tour packages will be sold at a special price on Oct. 31, through Lotte Homeshopping.
Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. (DSME) said Friday that it has signed a 640.8 billion won ($542 million) deal to build four container carriers.
Under the deal with a European country, DSME will deliver the vessels by November 2024, it said in a regulatory filing. In the first nine months, DSME posted $8.04 billion in new orders, surpassing its annual order target of $7.7 billion won. +VE
Samsung Electronics said Friday that it has set a world record for 5G upload speed: 711 megabits per second.  According to the South Korean IT giant, the feat was achieved in a recent trial conducted together with Verizon and Qualcomm in Texas.  “For comparison, 700 Mbps is fast enough to download a 1 gigabit movie in 10 seconds. Multi-gigabit speeds have been recorded on downloads before, but this is the fastest speed the companies have been able to reach while uploading data to the network,” a company official said.  Slight +VE
Stung by its employees‘ first collective action, Starbucks Korea said Sunday that it will hire 1,600 more baristas and store staff by the end of this year and improve working conditions.  +VE

Expect market to open  higher following the +VE move in the US markets on Friday.
No data due
China Steel Corp, the nation’s largest steelmaker, yesterday said it would be keeping steel prices for delivery next month steady as customers have accumulated inventory after global supply chain blockage suspended production.   The Kaohsiung-based company urged Taiwanese steel-using companies to take advantage of the lower steel prices to prepare for Environmental Social Governance (ESG) challenges it sees coming down the line for related industries.  +VE
President Tsai Ing-wen  Saturday pledged to reform the nation’s building regulations, two days after a fire in Kaohsiung killed 46 people.  The death toll from the fire at the 13-story Cheng Chung Cheng building in the early hours of Thursday was the second-highest in Taiwan’s history, behind a February 1995 blaze at the Weierkang Club in Taichung that killed 64.
EirGenix Inc Friday said it had raised NT$5.03 billion (US$179.47 million) through a private placement with Hon Hai Precision Industry Co’s subsidiary Foxconn Technology Co  and investements by two other firms controlled by Hon Hai founder Terry Gou.  EirGenix, which is a contract development and manufacturing services provider and biosimilars maker, said that proceeds would be utilized in its research and development, expansion of factories and operations integration, the company said in a statement submitted to the Taipei Exchange. +VE
HTC Corp on Thursday made a leap in its development of virtual reality (VR) devices when it unveiled its latest Vive Flow immersive glasses.  The lightweight portable device allows users to watch TV programs and movies on a full-size VR cinema screen, engage in brain training exercises and interact with other people, HTC said in an online news conference.  +VE
Presale projects and new houses last quarter totaled NT$270.5 billion (US$9.65 billion) in northern Taiwan, rising 3 percent from three months earlier, in the latest signs that the market is emerging from the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese-language My Housing Monthly said on Thursday.  However, some negative effects of the outbreak still linger, it added.  The data suggested that a recovery is under way for this segment of the housing market, although more improvement is needed to catch up with the showing a year earlier, the property publication’s head researcher Ho Shih-chang said. +VE

Expect market to open higher following the US but with caution ahead of the data due to be released at 10am
Data due GDP Growth Rate, Industrial Production, Industrial Capacity Utilisation, Retail Sales, Unemployment Rate, NBS Press Conference, Fixed Asset Investment (YTD).   Might also get FDI data.
PBOC commenting on Evergrande says the risks are controllable.
It vows to support Evergrande’s resumption of projects
Also urging developers and shareholders to fulfill their obligations.
Banks to keep stable orderly loans to real estate.
Chinese President Xi Jinping published an article on Qiushi, stressing the direction of firmly propelling the scheme of "common prosperity". In particular, the article remarked that the government should actively drive the legislation and reform of property tax and strengthen the management of the revenue distribution of monopolistic industries and SOEs, so as to rectify the order of income distribution.
China on Saturday launched a rocket carrying three astronauts - two men and one woman - to the core module of a future space station where they will live and work for six months, the longest orbit for Chinese astronauts. +VE for sentiment
The Financial Reporting Council (FRC) has today (15th) initiated an investigation on the going concern reporting of EVERGRANDE (03333.HK), involving an enquiry into the financial statements of China Evergrande Group for both the year ended 31 December 2020 and the six months ended 30 June 2021, and an investigation of the audit carried out by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on the 2020 Annual Accounts. The FRC identified questions about the adequacy of reporting on going concern in China Evergrande’s 2020 Annual Accounts and 2021 Interim Accounts and PwC’s auditor’s report for the 2020 Audit through its market surveillance activities. -VE
European Council President Charles Michel said on Friday after a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping that the European Union and China would hold a summit soon.  Two of the world’s biggest trading powers, the EU and China have not met in a formal physical summit setting since before the outbreak of COVID-19, with the last EU-China meeting via video conference on Dec. 30, 2020. +VE
An official from MOC's Department of Market Operation and Consumption Promotion briefed on the auto consumption conditions for the first three quarters of 2021, mentioning an overall stable car spending in the period.  However, new car sales were under heavier downside pressure given an ascending base in the same period of 2020, unresolved chip scarcity and the epidemic within the country. Slight -VE
Xi Jinping says China’s ‘democratic’ political system is a ‘great creation’ that holds key to international success;  intensifying ideological confrontation with Washington.
China’s education crackdown sparks lawsuits against defunct institutions, while some tutors keep teaching in secret  Beijing stopped for-profit education providers over the summer, and the shock waves continue as more companies are closing their doors.  Some investors are also facing massive losses after spending millions in hopes of cashing in on China’s once-lucrative education industry.   Lawsuits are being filed but in most cases there is no cash and that is leading to social disquiet. -VE
China-India border row continues with the failure of talks.  Troops on both sides of the disputed India-China border are expected to dig in for the winter after talks between the two countries this week collapsed, according to diplomatic observers. -VE
FT reports China tested a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in August that circled the globe before speeding towards its target, demonstrating an advanced space capability that caught US intelligence by surprise.  Five people familiar with the test said the Chinese military launched a rocket that carried a hypersonic glide vehicle which flew through low-orbit space before cruising down towards its target.
Russia and China held joint naval drills in the Sea of Japan on Friday and practised how to operate together and destroy floating enemy mines with artillery fire, the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.  The war games are part of naval cooperation drills between the two countries which run from Oct. 14-17 and involve warships and support vessels from Russia’s Pacific Fleet, including mine-sweepers and a submarine.
Russia said one of its military vessels chased away a U.S. naval destroyer that attempted to violate Russian territorial waters during Russian-Chinese naval drills in the Sea of Japan on Friday, something Washington said was false.  The U.S. military said the guided missile destroyer Chafee was conducting routine operations in international waters in the Sea of Japan when a Russian destroyer came within 65 yards (60 metres) of the American ship, though all interactions were safe and professional. -VE

ADR’s +98pts at 25,428; with a broad base move higher; weakness in CLP, CKH and LFC. Expect an initial spike higher but then caution ahead of the Chinese data due at 10am.
No data due

Seven activists jailed for up to 12 months over unauthorized protest in 2020;  including former lawmakers “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung and Eddie Chu Hoi-dick, for their role in a protest last year against a sweeping national security law imposed by China.   Interesting to note a comment from the court; "The nature of incitement was serious," said the judge Douglas Yau Tak-hong, noting that it created the risk of violence.  
"We could only choose civil disobedience as a peaceful, rational and non-violent way to express our demand against the national security law," Chan said in mitigation. "In order to uphold the belief of civil disobedience, I decided to plead guilty, admitting that I violated the 'evil public order law'."
At least 370 people were arrested that day for illegal assembly and other offenses, with ten involving violations of the security law, according to police.
A Hong Kong bookstore has removed a Chinese book about foreign invasion of China following complaints that it distorts history.  The book was reported to national security police. As for whether the book would have violated the national security law, Quat said it would depend on why it was published – whether it aimed to incite hatred against China and if foreign funding was involved.  “It is not up to our interpretation. I believe authorities will investigate,” she said.

SHORT SELLING HSI Friday 17.8% vs 23.6% Tuesday
Top shorts 
Ali Health (241) 44%, CM Bank (3968) 39%, Country Garden (2007) 39%, Hengan (1044) 39%, Hang Seng Bank (11) 33%, Henderson Land (12) 30%, Xinyi Solar (968) 29%, Wharf REIC (1997) 27%, Shenzhou (2313) 26%, ICBC (1398) 25%, Li Ning (2331) 25%, CSPC Pharm (1093) 25%.

YUEXIU PROPERTY (00123.HK) is mulling to exit a USD1.7 billion deal to acquire EVERGRANDE (03333.HK)'s headquarters building located in Hong Kong, r
eported Reuters, citing people familiar with the matter. YUEXIU PROPERTY and EVERGRANDE came close to completing the deal to buy China Evergrande Centre in Wan Chai in August, the sources added. However, the board of YUEXIU PROPERTY voiced opposition to the proposal over concerns that the debt crisis of EVERGRANDE may bring complications to the transaction. -VE

National Electric Vehicle Sweden AB (NEVS);  the Swedish electric vehicle unit of China Evergrande Group is in talks with U.S. and European venture capital firms and industrial partners to find new owners, its top chief said, as its Chinese parent battles default on more than $300 billion in debts.  Slight +VE

YUZHOU GROUP (01628.HK)  announced that Lam Lung On, the chairman of the Board and a controlling shareholder of the Company, on 15 October 2021, acquired 3 million shares of the Company on the market for an aggregate consideration of approximately HK$2.92 million.

XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)'s statement disclosed that on 15 October, it repurchased 1.4 million shares of the company on the Stock Exchange at a price of $20.9-21 per share, involving about $29.33 million. YTD, the company has repurchased a total of 129 million shares, accounting for 0.52% of the company's share capital.

AIR CHINA (00753.HK)  revealed the key operating data of September 2021. The number of passengers carried fell 29.5% YoY to 5.515 million.  During the month, the total cargo and mail carried sank 14.9% YoY to 102,500 tonnes -VE

CHINA EAST AIR (00670.HK)  disclosed the operating data for September 2021. The number of passengers carried dropped 31.9% YoY to 6.1302 million.  In September, cargo and mail shipments increased 3.8%.  -VE

CKH HOLDINGS (00001.HK)'s statement disclosed that on 15 October, the company repurchased 90,500 shares on the Stock Exchange at a price ranging $52.15-52.3 per share, involving about $4.73 million. YTD, the company has repurchased a total of 19.603 million shares, accounting for 0.5083% of the company's share capital.

CHINA AOYUAN (03883.HK)  announced that the Company had on the open market repurchased part of the Notes in the aggregate amount of US$3 million, comprising of the 4.2% Notes due January 2022 of US$1 million in aggregate principal amount; the 8.5% Notes due January 2022 of US$1 million in aggregate principal amount; and the 5.375% Notes due September 2022 of US$1 million in aggregate principal amount. +VE

CHINA COAL (01898.HK)  announced that the production and sales volume of commercial coal reduced 17% and 10.4% YoY in September to 8.39 million and 24.46 million tonnes. -VE

ZA ONLINE (06060.HK) announced that the aggregate gross written premiums for the period from January 1, 2021 to September 30, 2021 were approximately RMB15.802 billion, up 41.7% YoY.

Hong Kong has been adopting policy of "preventing the importation of cases and the spreading of the virus in the community", restated Edward Yau, Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development, viewing the city should not resume normal international travel at the expense of China's safety.   Hong Kong should instead strive to reopen border with China as soon as possible, stressed Yau, and that it should work with China for the latter's stringent precaution measures.

A number of Chinese companies are discussing with U.S. exporters, hoping to secure long-term LNG supply to address rising gas prices and local energy supply shortages, Reuters cited sources.  At least five Chinese firms, including SINOPEC CORP (00386.HK), CNOOC (00883.HK) and Zhejiang Energy, are talking with U.S. exporters Cheniere Energy and Venture Global, report furthered.

SIHUAN PHARM (00460.HK) announced that on 15 October 2021, the Company repurchased a total of 14.371 million Shares of the Company on market at an average price of HK$1.6082 per Share. The aggregate purchase price paid for the Share Repurchase was approximately HK$23.11 million.

Southbound Stock Connect transactions may be settled in renminbi in the future, according to Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Christopher Hui Ching-yu.   Such arrangement would help reduce transaction costs and lower uncertainties for investors, he said in a radio program on Sunday.

Hong Kong property prices have seen temporarily weakening as the market anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve to begin tapering the bond-purchase program, remarked the research department of Centaline Property. Over this week, among the eight major CCL indices, only the home prices of New Territories West managed to stabilize amid the downward trend of the overall market.
CCL Mass in New Territories West last posted at 175.62, up 1.09% WoW.
Centa-City Leading Index (CCL) slumped 0.94% WoW to post at 187.15.
CCL Mass dropped 1.22% WoW; last stood at 189.80. CCL (small-and-medium units)
CCL (large units) likewise lost 1.01% and 0.58% WoW, to post at 187.67 and 184.42 respectively.

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